The kamikaze

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OLYMPUS DIGITAL CAMERACapriles’ candidacy is kinda hopeless, but in a good way. My take over at Transitions, the Foreign Policy blog.

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1 COMMENT

    • Sorry Salvador, I don’t think so (and I hate Chavez). Look at Argentina and what happened when Nestor Kirchner died for direction – Cristina won. The only thing that will change anything in Venezuela now that the Chavistas have control of everything is an economic crisis.

  1. JC you saw the movie NO and even though you told me you were not particularly impressed as to being Oscar for best foreign film material, they won against Pinochet by God! And they were only given 2 minutes daily I believe at 11pm when most working people are sleeping? Their campaign for voting NO against Pinochet’s continuation as Chile’s dictator was so effective that the landslide made it unadvisable for the fascist dictator to commit fraud. So who knows? La esperanza es lo último que se pierde. La peor diligencia es la que no se hace (my mother dixit)

    • No, the No had I think 15 minutes in prime time, and each side had the same amount of time. It just doesn’t compare with what Chávez has (oops, what Maduro has, old habits don’t die as easily as strongmen)

      • I’m sure there’s a long post to be written about the Chile referendum and how it does and doesn’t apply to Venezuela

  2. It almost doesn’t matter. Chavizmo can’t survive another phyrric victory like 7-O. In fact given how deeply their roots go in courts and the military, it’s almost better if Maduro wins in a hotly contested elections. If the election were to be blatantly rigged, that would be optimal.

  3. Although I understand you may have a point, I cannot accept the words you’ve used to describe Capriles’ campaign: “lost cause”, “death wish”, “kamikaze”. I know you want to be objective, but I think a line was crossed here.

  4. According to El Universal, Caprilles just called Maduro a Castros’ candidate. It’s bound to score a few points where it hurts. The Kamikaze were, after all, very effective.

  5. I will say once again ( like the last election) that y’all’s new and improved Capriles will end up 10% behind come election day, maybe more up to 15% if the demoralization factor increases.
    And Juan has the correct cultural analysis but it’s sepuku/hari kari is word I would use, take out your wakizashi and finish job now if you want.

    Its all over but the crying again in MUD-ville and the mighty Capriles has struck out but he can hang out at his 5 million dollar condo in NYC whereas many of you get to go maybe Doral or Broward County.

    Rojo Rojito
    Cort

    • Le respondo a Cort en español (no sé si es de los PSF unilingue). El análsis de Juan Cristóbal es correcto, pero se quedó corto. El mundo sigue después del 14 de abril. Maduro huele a Isabelita Perón después de la muerte del General. Además, tiene un rabo de paja inmenso. Las mentiras que ha montado para llegar y mantenerse en el poder saldrán como fantasmas a espantarlo en Miraflores (Cort, si no entendiste lo del rabo de paja, pídele a algún camarada venezolano que te traduzca).

    • You have really drunk your own coolaid, I can’t believe you actually want Maduro to win, let alone so big! He is going to be forced to enact all the painful parts of a structural adjustment package without any of the benefits.

      If Chavismo had any brains it would lose the election while still infesting all the state institutions and let Capriles Kamakazi himself making the unavoidable cutbacks, then come in once the fiscal situation is cleaned up. Can’t say Chavistas have ever been big on logic though!

      • I want the revolution to win and completed to real socialism . Its not the man but Chavez’s dream the masses of people support who want the extension not just in Venezuela but all over Latin America and all over the world. No to austerity, no cutbacks, get rid of the capitalist advisors and they know time is running out. If the bureaucracy does not do it this time all hell may break out .

        • In all honesty, it sounds like someone wishing a bike for their birthday. These are real people we are talking about. Socialism is a concept. Hunger and poverty are reality.

        • You are focusing on the wrong country, sorry (or rather F*** off). Inasmuch as the government owns the main currency sources, and distributes it according to its will, we have socialism, we have always have had it. Long before the deceased even thought about power. There are no “capitalist” government advisors in Venezuela, and there have not been since 1989 at least.

          It’s only more so now, with naked authoritarianism that decides such distribution by poltiical affiliation. If that kind of masochism turns you on, (don’t) be our guest. The bureaucracy that controls the wealth beneath the President, it’s chief, rules.

          “More so” also means that only those favored by the government get to live well (or to live safely). That does NOT mean the poor by any means. Only incidentally, because of high oil prices, or electoral season, do they get something. That means mainly the rich and well connected. Not those of before, but new ones, who get dibs on the expropriated loot from former parasites as well as productive people.

          The “masses” are screwed here in Venezuela and screwed for good. More deeply and more painfully than you would ever imagine.

  6. Your are quite right in pointing out that there are even now, in ‘socialist’ Venezuela ,priviledged elites that get special favours in the distribution of socially produced wealth , (the first best slice of the pie) sadly I think that this is the case in almost any country in the course of history . A group of economist friends once tried figuring out what it would take for Venezuela to become a developed country, they figured that we needed a steady X% of economic growth for X number of years provided population didnt grow more than a certain percentage during those years. Then one of then said ‘weve missed something, the elites always take the top of the growth yield for themselves so the real yearly economic growth has to be X plus Y to allow for development to be achieved in that period . These economist were not Giordani followers but they understood how the world works.

  7. Capriles, in my opinion, had no alternative. Without him, the Oppo would garner substantially less popular vote, and would be trampled on even worse by a probable Maduro government. With him, hopefully, the Oppo will attain a sufficiently good number of votes to be a real viable alternative when the economic doodoo eventually hits the fan (as an example, Citibank recently estimated that Venezula’s Brent oil marker, recently in a $90-110 range, will descend to $70-90 within 5 years, due to a variety of U. S. shale/other country production increases, barring any world war/similar catastrophe. In any event, goodbye to the 10x oil price increase, which is the only reason Chavismo exists today.

  8. I think JCN’s analysis is flawed.

    I will make just one point: suppose only 25% of Venezuelans were swooning with grief for Chavez. That would be over 7M people, far more than the numbers that actually showed up for the funeral processions.

    Furthermore, there is I believe evidence that many of the “mourners” were trucked in en masse by the chavernment. There are a lot of people for whom failing to display the proper emotions would be dangerous. Will they all vote for Maduro?

    Beyond that – among the mourners there were people who loved Chavez – but have little or no liking for for the rest of the chavernment. Will they all vote for Maduro?

    45% of the population voted against Chavez himself. It won’t take much disaffection for a decisive swing against the chavernment. The more Maduro exposes himself, the more the chavista voters will see that he is nothing like Chavez.

  9. Likely this post will get lost in the noise, but that would be fitting:
    the following is an excerpt from “The signal and the noise” by Nate Silver:

    “A long-term study by Philip E. Tetlock of the University of Pennsylvania found that when political scientists claimed that a political outcome had absolutely no chance of occuring, it nevertheless happened about 15 percent of the time.”

    That’s a 1 in 8 chance of winning. Could be worse. And it’s the baseline for ZERO chance of occurring.

    For all of our Chavista friends, the book comes highly recommended by Bill Gates

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