Slow and Steady Wins the Race

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    slow-and-steady-wins-the-race1The Capriles Camp is wise to measure its words, collect its evidence, and work to build a decisive case on yesterday’s irregularities with a careful, measured tone. If there was tampering, it will not be possible to hide it.

    To my mind, there’s little need to worry about reports of destroyed ballots strewn by the roadside – if you manage to audit 95% of the tables and can show you’re ahead and that all of Maduro’s advantage coincidentally comes from the 5% of mesas that can’t be audited, that’s even more damaging for the government, in particular if results from unauditable tables diverge markedly from near-by audited tables.

    There is no need to rush. Over the coming weeks, we need to be clinical in producing and documenting this evidence. Now more than ever it’s important for everyone to fully digest how strong a guarantee the CNE Triple-Congruence system really is. If you haven’t seen them yet, the simple explanation is below the break.

    triplecongruence-0012

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    triplecongruence-004

    triplecongruence-005

    The point: all three sets of tallies are public. If they don’t match, everyone will be able to see they don’t match. It may be that they don’t care that they don’t match, but they won’t be able to hide it if they don’t match.

    1 COMMENT

    1. So, triple congruence is only available in audited tables; in the non audited tables, the only congruence is between the machine’s internal tally and the CNE’s reporting of it? Who controls the choice of audited tables, and when is that choice made?

        • Is it the head of each voting center does a flip of a coin to choose the audit tables?

          Is the choice after transmission of data?

        • The “random” fib is not even “seudo random” it is “electronically” generated by same CNE… Me pago y me doy los vueltos…

        • It’s Jorge Rodriguez we have to listen to on this, and JR’s position is baffling. Yesterday he seemed to rule out 100%. Today on Venevision he said, fine, let’s open them all. But not to do a manual count of the votes, just to audit the machine tally. Can anyone explain to me the difference between these two operations? What does he mean? We’ll check them against the electronic vote but we won’t add them up? Make any sense to anyone? I also suspect he is going to fall back on ‘respect for the CNE decision’ (which he will have dictated to them over the phone in the past few hours and which will of course be negative.

        • Maduro’s word is worthless. More important is what Jorge Rodriguez, the power behind CNE, says. And he had already said that a 100% audit was not gonna happen.

          Maduro can just back track and say that it’s up to CNE, that the CNE is independent and that he had to obey the rules.

    2. Slow and steady might win the morale argument, but it wont stop the dictatorship. Maduro’s swearing in ceremony has been brought forward: his stolen election is almost complete.

      It appears diosdado is ready to act. I’d like to know who diosdado has with him and whether he simply wants to expel maduro or his whole cuban entourage.

    3. What do you know about demonstrations for the opposition in Obelisco in San Cristobal as wellas some small demonstration in Yaracuy?

    4. however, there`s people saying that we should focus on the abuses committed on election day. what do you think about this?

    5. If the machine is only connected to the CNE after voting, how can they know throughout the day how many people had voted in the morning/afternoon? Isn’t the machine connected to the CNE all the time and the CNE collects votes in near real time?

      • Two information sources:
        1.- Sistema de Información al Elector (SIE) is the first step in voting centers. They take your cedula and write in a paper on which mesa you vote and the page and line in the voting book you are. The information about the “searched” voters is zent to CNE live (and used by PSUV to query their misiones database to movilize the misioneros that haven’t voted)
        2.- Witnesses report to their commands how many voters on each mesa based on how many people has signed the voting book (you do that after voting).

    6. I was a witness in yesterday’s election at a traditionally Chavista center.

      I have a question. Does anybody know how many of the voting centers were covered by witnesses of the opposition? I haven’t heard or read about about it (I remember Leopoldo Lopez claimed that 90% of the centers had witnesses for the O7 election, then he backtracked a bit from those comments). If we have a good percentage of the “actas” it would very, very difficult to alter the count.

        • The audit of 54% of tables, not of centers, though. From what I understand the percentage of centers this time is less than last time.

          • 54% of tables (at least one in each center). Even though statistically a sample doesn’t need to be that big, most people don’t know that. So they picked 54% (i.e. more than half) in order to appease many that a) don’t know/trust statistics and random samples and b) distrust voting machines and want to go back to manual voting. In this case, the hardline oppo, but I’m sure if the chavistas were in the opposition’s place they, too, would have needed that kind of appeasement.

            • So, I have to ask, if one table in each center is chosen, who chooses it and how? Are there ever more than one box per table? And what is the process for determining which centers audit more than one table and which additional tables?

              Regarding statistics, as much as I trust statistics I don’t trust the correct application of statistics. For example, people use the word random too easily without realizing that the randomness of a sample is not limited to merely choosing a sample using a random method. Statistically, the sample obtained by random method must behave in every respect like the universe it represents for it to be considered a random sample.

              My insistence on the non audited tables does not have to do with my distrust of statistics but with my faith in computers being able to crunch numbers with faster than sleight of hand speed. Every magician knows that the trick lies in what you don’t see, not in what you do see. For this reason, I am trying to determine how easily could a CNE/PSUV person know where tweaks could be made with the certainty that the tweaks would not be detected.

            • Actually there is one box per table, so the 54% is half plus one of the boxes of each Center… the election is done by the head of each of the tables of the centers. When I was a witness we all got together in front of witnesses from each side and community if there was space (there was in our case) and wrote the number of boxes, one on each piece of paper, in our case it was 17 if I remember correctly. And then we drew 9 slips of paper at random, usually someone who wasn’t a witness for any party would take the number out from the paper bag. That’s how we did it for several elections.

            • Thanks. So, is this selection done before or after tranmission of acta information? Also, are the number of votes the only thing counted, or do you also count whether the number of votes for each candidate correspond with the ones reported in the acta? In other words, is the audit in effect a recount of the chosen tables?

            • Hi Torres, this is done before transmission and you check number of votes for each candidates and also total number of votes vs number of signatures in the electoral roll.

            • Moraima Garcia, thanks. It seems to me that any fraud has to take place where the process is not followed (aka, irregularities), unless one of the parties is in cahoots with CNE to claim that it was the other party altering an acta, in which case a fraud could take place with any non audited table at any time after closing. We’ll see if CNE starts making that claim.

    7. would creating some international reaction help chavistas to take the recounting seriously? what can we do?

      even though they promised that they would do the recount, who can trust them? it is time to be precautious…

    8. Carpiles does not have much time, the momentum is in his favour, but the situation is too volatile. The CNE , PSUV and our own fringe are feeling the pressure to act. To this you have to add popular movements on both sides that are starting to move on their own. Interesting times… Capriles has to keep the iniciative and keep all players on their toes.

      • I disagree. I think MUD needs to take control of the pacing of this crisis. I think they can ratchet up the pressure gradually over weeks as more and more evidence piles up. (Presuming there WAS fraud of course – but of course, if there wasn’t, the audit will show that too…)

        • I hope you are right, I am pessimistic. The one thing Maduro said yesterday that I found interesting was that the recount had to be done quickly, I wonder what the CNE response is going to be.

          • Whatever the CNE decides, I imagine Luisa Estrella Morales is looking for a spanish translation of Bush v. Gore right now. That would be the way to shut it down fast.

        • I agree on the premise. Please, let´s no become AMLO camping on Plaza del Zocalo for MONTHS for nothing.

          But, I think Chavismo is trying to pull that on us. Go on with the whole charade, with the CNE pretending nothing weird happened and ignore ALL request for an audit coming from MUD:

        • I agree with Quico, but demanding that the proclamation be stalled until all votes are counted does not seem / feel like an auditoria, and from what I hear, the chavista nomenklatura is already balking at what they term blackmail.
          I hope I’m wrong, but this promises to be a bumpy ride.

    9. Now, Scarano is claiming that with actas Henrique won by 80,000 in Carabobo that erases 1/3 of the purported advantage. Guys are we going back to 2004 territory or is this a new game?.

      • My concern is that they are not just trying to steamroll us with the proclamation today, but also that they will try to redtape us alleging that the MUD did not submit a formal audit request, or that he did it to late.
        It’s obvious that any legal problem will be decided in the chavista CNE or TSJ, so I think the MUD should not give any excuse to let the chavismo screw us…

        • I hate to tell I told you so, but Tibisay Lucena is just saying what I foretold: She considers Capriles’ statement on TV is worthless, and he must fill in the appropriate form and whatnot…

      • Of course. NM shouldn’t be invested until the manual counting an audit is done. What’s the sense otherwise. Godgiven and jorgito refuse…and the invested him today so. Even pinochet was more responsabile than these goons

    10. Unfortunately I don’t see how the audit will be fair and legitimate either. CNE is stalling, they are simply a branch of the PSUV who knows what they are destroying/ hiding.

    11. Not to mention they made it eerily clear that the results are “irreversible” last night. Even there is proof of fraud then what? A new election? Doubt it. This is going to get really ugly..

      • It seems to be a problem from abroad. I’m in Venezuela and have been able to read the numbers for my voting center. (They are the same numbers they told us about last night, but then again, mine is not a very contested center).

    12. We need to let the PSUV finish imploding, not recognize the results after the audit is denied and hold a referendum in the coming months after they finish destroying the economy.. Maduro couldn’t even keep his popularity during election season when he was already engaging voters. Give it 3 months and he will be the one trailing by double digits. Patience now is key..

    13. Geez, Quico, build a case overt several weeks? In several weeks, the internaitonal community will have moved on, and nothing will happen. If Capriles knows he won, he needs to say it now. They have the data. you don’t need weeks to make a case.

    14. Jorge Rodriguez and Maduro agreed to “audit” 100 percent of the paper ballots, but with the swearing in scheduled for this afternoon, the government position appears to be that an audit is not the same as a recount. Instead, they imply that the audit validates the electronic voting but does not replace it. That means that the CNE intends to swear in Maduro this afternoon and then audit the result sometime in the future when they figure out what to do. My guess is that no one, including the CNE, Maduro, and Capriles, really knows who won (i.e., it was really too close to call), but Maduro and the CNE are short-circuiting the whole process ala Bush circa 2000.

    15. Social networks are showing the National Guard dumping CNE vote boxes. Its all over the place.
      CNE wants to hastily announce Maduro as President.
      An 100% audit is looking scientifically impossible

      • Good for them. Just more strokes from the brush painting them as fraudulent. The government is flushing any legitimacy they have down the toilet. HCR was right last night, no matter what PSUV were the big losers last night they are in a no win situation. The opposition needs to stay patient and vigilant, it’s always darkest before the sun comes up.

      • It doesn’t matter, audit as many as you can, even if it’s 80% if you can show that Capriles won then the CNE may be forced to invalidate the election and call a new one or revert the results. It all depends on the fall-out. Previously these scenarios were not feasible when Chavez had victory margins of 10% or more (Simply put no one believes you can commit 10-20 point fraud on such a scale and leave no trace of it). But 1%? VERY believable.

      • Capriles may gather as much evidence as needed to prove illegitimacy, but the probability of CNE announcing an audit is looking less and less plausible. By night fall when Maduro is proclaimed president the sounds of iron clashing shall be the only obstacle in his way.
        I just hope this doesn’t get ugly

      • Those are pics from 2009. It’s really difficult, at these turbulent times, to refrain from sharing and RTing every single outrageous picture that you come across; but I fear that these are the kind of things that really damage the credibility of the apparently legit and based-on-evidence claims of fraud of the opposition.

    16. Its seems to me that, short term, all they need to do is introduce credible doubt. This can be done just my choosing a few places where they suspect results were tampered with. For example, places with 100% of voters or where they were machine failures beyond reasonable stats.If they can show a diference of at least 2%, they can plausibly claim that the overall results are in serious need of auditing.

      • This is nonsense. How would the results be tampered with? They are electronic. The only thing that could be tampered with are the ballot boxes, but as long as a majority are audited and line up with the official results then it is virtually impossible to claim fraud.

        • Exactly, fraud would be impossible hide with the Venezuelan system! That’s why it’s important not to have an audit and respect the results as they were announced by the CNE.

          The fact that people in the opposition want an audit, let alone a recount, demonstrates they don’t believe in democracy!!!!

          • Fraud is impossible for the very reason that the process if fully audited. But if you haven’t understood that after more than a decade, then you must be a very special guy.

    17. So basically you guys are saying you don’t believe in democracy. You won’t accept the results of the elections.

      Toro knows very well that with this electoral system it is virtually impossible to commit fraud. If 99% of the votes are counted and Maduro is winning by more than 200,000 votes there is simply no way Capriles can win. Its that simple. Its basic arithmetic. The machines don’t make up votes, nor do they “miscount” votes. It is an exact count, as the audit will show.

      Look, why don’t you all relax already? The opposition obviously has the momentum, and will most likely win the next election. You’ll probably be able to recall Maduro in 3 years time.

      But if you fail to recognize that you’ve clearly lost this election, you are only damaging your chances for a clean victory next time. You are creating a pattern of not recognizing electoral results, which will come back to haunt you when you actually DO win.

      • I thought Capriles was handling these events well but I wasn’t sure. The fact that this clown says we’re doing things wrong confirms it for me though. Worst case scenario you had to cheat to win an election and best case you won it by 1.6%. The economy is in shambles, Maduro is an idiot and a horrible speaker plus chavistas are mad at him for throwing away a GIANT lead and the opposition has a young, likeable, intelligent leader will the guy who was that for you is dead. You really think we’ll have to wait 3 years for a recall?. Get a clue y dont u actually get a clue. Maduro will not last the year that is if he even lasts the week…

        • Apparently Antonio doesn’t understand even the basics of the recall process as laid out in Venezuela’s constitution.

          • Oh I do get a clue. I said do you think we’ll have to wait 3 years for a recall not that we can recall him sooner then that. There are other ways to remove presidents from power who have little support. Look up Carlos Andres Perez’s second presidency and get back to me 🙂

            • I didnt say it was gonna be a coup. CAP wasnt taken down by a coup. Massive protests forcing him to resign or the TSJ which is about as democratic as you are will impeach him. That would be my prediction. I dont know who will replace him. I think and hope that it will be Capriles but of that Im not sure. He wont finish his term though you can be sure of that

            • You’ll have to excuse my counterpart, he isn’t the sharpest tool in the shed, nor is he very well versed in Venezuelan history.

            • Thank you for demonstrating that you cannot respond to any of my points, and thus resort to childish nonsense.

            • He doesnt seem to be well versed in anything actually lol. I normally just ignore him but today his ignorance pissed me off more then usual

            • CAP was the victim of 2 coup attempts. I assumed you were referring to that. But if you want to debate Venezuelan history, go for it. You won’t come out well.

            • He wasnt overthrown by a coup. They werent successful probably because they were planned by a horrible military strategist who failed while all his subordinates succeeded. By the way you must be the only chavista on earth to bring up those two coups in an argument of why the opposition isnt democratic. What a hipocrite!

            • A coup against a government who ordered the military to massacre its own citizens is quite different from a coup against a government that had done no such thing, and in fact had majority support.

      • No guy, When all indicators and reports point to a HCR victory and the CNE directors spend 2 hours locked in a room with no explanation before announcing results, there are serious questions that deserve answers. When the CNE seems to be refusing to audit and the government is rushing the inauguration process it is very likely that they are trying to hide something. Not to mention with the abuses of the media, the cadenas, and constant fairytale plots against them that don’t exist, the government doesn’t exactly command trust. This isn’t unique to Venezuela, when there is a close election and there are serious questions there is an investigation and a recount. To deny this means YOU don’t believe in democracy. Let there be a fair investigation and recount, not a government answer that just says “trust us”.

        • Most specially when one of the directors – Vicente Diaz – recommended to count all the votes right after the announcement!

          • He said it so people like you would calm down and accept the results. He didn’t say there was any question of the accuracy of the results.

            He knows you all don’t believe in democracy.

        • No one is saying their shouldn’t be a full audit. But if you understand how the electoral system works, you know that the audit will show the same results.

          The CNE directors took a long time to announce results because it was a very close election and they had to count 99% of the votes to be sure. This isn’t brain surgery.

            • Full audit is 54%. As far as I know, Diosdado has never said anything against this. But if he has, then I strongly disagree, as should everyone.

            • Regardless of whether it is 54% or 100%, the fact is that they are swearing Maduro before any audit takes place (it was originally planned for April 19, as far as I know).. What do you make out of that?

            • If the audit shows that the results are inaccurate, which is virtually impossible, then they will have to rectify. What do you think they will do? There is virtually no way for them to have a “fraudulent” audit.

            • An it doesn’t seem strange at all to you that they rushed a proclamation that was originally planned for days later, right?

              I see…

      • It’s impressive you are acknowledging the opposition has the momentum. If Chavismo doesn’t rectify, the tendency will continue being the same. The degradation process is irreversible unless these guys take serious economic and social measures.

        Still, under this scenario, Capriles does have the right to audit the numbers. I think they are looking at an important discrepancy between results issued by CNE and the sum of the actas. They just have to make sure this is so before issuing a full report. That’s why Capriles said “yo creo que nosotros ganamos” and not “yo estoy seguro que ganamos.”

      • “Look, why don’t you all relax already? The opposition obviously has the momentum, and will most likely win the next election. You’ll probably be able to recall Maduro in 3 years time.”

        Hey GAC, now that you are in a pensive mood, why the collapse, anyway? Is it just that Maduro is a lunatic, or is it a broader collective judgment on this regime?

        • Collapse of what? Support for Maduro? That’s pretty obvious. He’s not anywhere nearly as attractive as Chavez. He made tons of really stupid mistakes in the campaign.

          Funny thing is that people hate the opposition so much that they STILL lost, even against a complete bumbling fool like Maduro. That should tell you something.

          • Okay, just wanted to clarify that you were not in the “self-criticism” camp. thanks. I won’t bother you anymore.

            • Haha, self-criticism. I didn’t think that word even existed in your vocabulary.

              I have enormous criticisms of the Chavez government. But that’s not what we are discussing here is it?

            • Yeah, we criticize the Chavez government all the time for failing to implement true socialism, failing to strip all opposition governors of funding and diverting it to PSUV controlled communal councils and failing to sufficiently support the FARC. GAC and I are full of criticisms of the Chavez government in that it has failed to do exactly what we want, if Chavez had followed our ideas precisely Venezuela would be a workers paradise!

              SELF criticism is not necessarily in our case, because our ideological and sociological positions are uniformly perfect.

            • OMG, the bifurcated GAC has raised 2 of his many heads in full view again (I wonder how many pillows he needs to sleep at night, or is it just a multi-split personality sort of thing?).

            • Actually, GAC2 is probably just a put-on of GAC, but, with multi-personality GAC (he’s sometimes even “Tallulah”), you never really know.

        • El hecho de que este carajo venga a decirnos que aceptemos los resultados porque vamos a ganar en 3 años, es casi una señal de que lo que se está haciendo es lo correcto,

          • Hey, believe that if you want. I honestly believe you will do yourselves more harm than good. Just today I heard a taxi driver with Capriles stickers on his window criticizing the protestors, saying “tienen que aceptar que si perdieron perdieron, por que se van a poner asi…” etc.

            You’re gonna lose the moderate sectors. But hey, don’t say I didn’t warn you.

            • Disculpa chamo, pero a ti como que no te han contado la parábola de Pedrito y el Lobo. Después del veneno y odio que vienes a descargar en este blog, la verdad esta actitud no te queda. A mí un taxista hoy me dijo que desconfiara de los propagandistas que se la pasan por interrnet.

            • That’s cool. Believe what you want to believe. Lord knows you’ve all had a LOT of success over the last 14 years doing it that way.

            • GAC.. after listening to Maduro last night, his venomous hatred towards the oppostion, where half the country disagress with the direction and results of the past 14 years and do not want more of the intolerable same for 6 more… and you expect them to sit back and accept? You talk of democracy, but Maduro has no intention of a democracy, where even the rights of the minority are protected. The oppostiion has rights, and every right to pursue them, peacefully.

            • “where half the country disagress with the direction and results of the past 14 years and do not want more of the intolerable same for 6 more… and you expect them to sit back and accept?”

              Dude, that’s how democracy works. If you lose, by even one vote, then you lose. And unfortunately you have to accept that, and allow the person who won the election to govern. This is really basic.

      • Get a clue, if you believe in the validity of the voting process and believe fraud is virtually impossible why not let an audit/recount PROVE what you are saying? Are you scared what the findings may be? There is no justification for you to have any stance other than supporting an audit/recount.

        • No one has said there shouldn’t be an audit. There will be one, and it will verify the results. Now, a question for you.

          If you really believe in democracy, why not wait to have PROOF of fraud before trying to create chaos and take to the streets? Why is Capriles trying to create all this uncertainty without simply awaiting the results of the audit. Why is he making statements to the Armed Forces?

          Its because he doesn’t want to accept the results of the election. He doesn’t believe in democracy, just as he demonstrated exactly 11 years ago.

          • Because he needs to pressure the institutions, otherwise they will do nothing because they are completely partial to the government. It’s not that hard to understand, try to keep up.

            • The idea for the 100% audit CAME from the very institution that he is seeking to pressure. And you don’t pressure institutions by making reckless claims about fraud and creating the impression that the electoral system isn’t credible. That’s irresponsible and damaging to people’s confidence in future electoral processes.

              You can just as easily put pressure on the institutions by simply holding concentrations demanding the audit, etc.

              Try not being a complete apologist for opposition manipulation for once.

            • Exactly, the opposition shouldn’t take to the streets with demonstrations to put pressure on institutions, they should just hold concentrations. Very well said.

            • Capriles yesterday did not say fraud, he said irregularities. Try and not be such a mundane irresponsible pamphleteer for once.

            • He said he does not accept the results, he tweeted that the government was trying to “change the will of the people” and he said that his results indicated he had won.

              If that’s not claiming fraud, I’m not sure what is. Talk about irresponsible pamphleteer.

              Your comments don’t stand up to even the slightest scrutiny.

          • I do believe in democracy. I am not Capriles so don’t take responsibility for his decisions, but as a candidate it is his right to request an audit/recount if he considers there to be reason to do so – and given he didn’t during the 7O election but is now I would like to think he has good reason (even if for no other reason than because the vote was so close this would be fair enough). I can’t comment on fraud claims, but if anyone aside from Maduro and the CNE could be in-the-know about such an issue it would logically be the opposition leader. Why has Maduro pushed his confirmation as President forward in the midst of calls for a recount/audit? Why not let the democratic process run its course and then, after the result is confirmed, complete this? This is a question you should be asking yourself. To me this behaviour is strong signal that something not right about the whole process.

      • How about doing a recount? To be sure, you know… How about Maduro and HIS CNE not going on with HIS proclamation at INDECENT AND COMPLICIT SPEED?

      • A full audit does not refer to the 54% that is done center by center. It´s checking that against what was received in CNE, that all ballot boxes are accounted for, that the ones audited are indeed in custody and that the actas corresponding to those match the ones collected by witnesses, that results in one center in Magallanes de Catia are not too different from those in a center three blocks away and that there a not , suddenly two thousnd voter in Biruaca, estado Apure (not that you-know-who would know where that is). Many variables, lots of work, yes. But with such a narrow margin very necessary.

    18. By the way, has anybody spoken about Tibisay’s behavior yesterday? I just received a message stating something that is quite impressive: she spoke for less than a minute, forgot the other candidates, did not mention abstention, did not throw a cadena nacional. She stood and left Vicente Diaz by himself. Either she was very angry or scared it’s hard to tell but one of the two is certain.

      • Yeah I dont understand the mental demons that drive someone who obviously disagrees vehemently with every one of us to “correct” us somehow. It’s not like he’s changing any minds around here so he either literally has nothing to do all day or he’s mentally ill. He’s obviously not doing anything constructive, that’s for sure.

        • I enjoy showing you the utterly obvious contradictions in your arguments. And I enjoy watching you all try to squirm around red-faced mad.

        • He’s a PAID provacateur. Even poor true-believer delusional Cort doesn’t have the time to spend trying to “straighten out” this Blog (though, if he were paid, he might try)….

    19. what I don’t understand. if the system was flawless, according to the Capriles campaign last October, why has this changed now? if as Francisco says, there is no triple congruence, then there was fraud. But Capriles has not given any proof of this or has he? (i probably missed it). Can anyone please explain this to me? Otherwise he is just irresponsibly calling for protests. I understand you all want him to win, but he can’t have his cake and eat it too. if his argument is that his quick counts make him a winner, well that is just lame. Let’s remember this was the guy that told us he would win in October based on C21’s polls.

      • DKB,

        There IS no explanation for this. It is complete manipulation. They only accept results of elections when they win. They don’t believe in democracy.

      • 1) He never said it was flawless, he simply accepted the results and said that there was no clear evidence of fraud.
        2) He hasn’t said that there was fraud but that there wer more than 3000 irregularities documented and considering the minimal difference he wanted to have a 100% audit.
        3) Number two was ACCEPTED by Nicolas and the psychiatrist but suddenly they ignored this and moved 4 days forward the proclamation…

      • The info I got is that when you add all the “actas” that the Capriles’s Camp has, it adds to a victory. I don’t think they have all of them and there may be missing enough to not give him 100% certainty.

        In my opinion, like GAC says, this result is better. I think Maduro will have to be force to make unpleasant decisions and will show how not viable this path is. It is good for our collective learning. Hopefully he will explain why is not viable (like Giordanni saying that “no more free stuff”) and basically say that the one to blame is the previous government. Maybe this is a fantasy, but it may be his last resort.

        Nonetheless it is very important that we start taking a strong stance. We start by demanding audits. The system is fully auditable, but the results of those audits are never published. No stats on irregularities are never published and no one here (looking at you GAC) can claim that the system is flawless when there is actually no published results on the system’s performance in spite that the data is there. It is serves as a beach front to start demanding things like naming permanent judges in the TSJ and not interim ones (I think by now the majority of the judges are interim), new CNE (most of their periods are due), audit of the REP, new comptroller general (we have an interim one right now), restore the former debate protocols for the AN and restore the checks and balances. One that is restored, then government excesses in campaigns would be limited.

        All these of course will be harder with the soon to be reduced media access.

        • All good ideas, but, regardless of the 50-50 split, without Regime change, or Caraczo2, and with the Cuban/Chavista mindset, I don’t think any of this will happen.

        • “I think Maduro will have to be force to make unpleasant decisions and will show how not viable this path is.” I think you’re giving Maduro way too much credit, yesterday’s speech proved just how stupid he really is, I don’t think he’ll realise how delicate the situation is, in his mind, he’s just thinking “Weeee I won!”

      • A system can be tweaked and manipulated to show results which arent valid , its difficult to manipulate a system where you have a big gap between two contenders (last october) but where the gap is razor thin ( yesterday) the system is easier to manipulate to favour one candidate . If you have many strands of evidence you just dont throw it into a bag and spew the contents on a table , you have to analyze and organize it to make it clearer and more convincing which takes a bit of time . I have no doubt that Carpiles has the proof and is simply giving the political electoral system a chance to defend itself for fairness sake and also to give his people time to prepare its evidence for the world to see to maximum effect . The system did not just allow Capriles to have a quick count, but dirrect access to precise certifiable data from each polling station which he could compare with the CNE official figures. Wait a few days and you will see Capriles evidence set out in full detail .

    20. Get a Clue: How do you accuse the opposition of being “against democracy” when they are exercising their constitutional right for a recount? Seems to me they are doing exactly what is in their democratic right to do. So, how is that anti-democratic? Seems you’re just mad that the 50% of “el pueblo” that are now against the Robolution aren’t just going to lay down this time.

    21. Time and again commenters in this blog engage in discussion with Get a Clue, knowing this idiot will continue to insist the Moon is made of Cheese even when plonked on the head with a Moon Rock.
      Why do you waste your time with this person?

      Seriously, ignore the douche and move on, it’s pretty easy. Just don’t click on reply and don’t type.

    22. But he’s more or less saying that he knows he won. Maybe, but based on what? did they do the 54% audit? does anyone know? were there any irregularities here? because that would be grounds for calling for a 100% recount, right? what kind of irregularities would emerge in a 100% recount other than a difference between votes issued and votes counted? I just fear Capriles is playing with fire and manipulating people’s understandable desire to get rid of these crooks.

      • ” I just fear Capriles is playing with fire and manipulating people’s understandable desire to get rid of these crooks.”

        Exactly. At least some of you can see this. It is plain as day to anyone with the slightest bit of logic.

        Of course he does not know what the results are. There is no other way to tally results outside of the official CNE count.

      • The way the system works the 54% mandatory manual double check is what validates the machines operation has not been tampered with . But where a body of evidence exists of fraud then a 100% recount is bound to bring out any concealed tricks which those who control it may have incorporated into its operation. As the saying goes in spanish , el que no la hace no la teme , Thats what Maduro said on his speech , why he backtracks now is a sign that he has been alerted to the possibility of a total recount discovering fraud which favours him , specially in an election with such tight results.

    23. Ok, please someone explain me something::

      if capriles doesn’t have HARD evidence that he actually won, then this is lopez obrador, no point discussing this alternative.

      if capriles does have HARD evidence that he actually won, then, why is he asking for a recount instead of showing said evidence of fraud? One could say that it’s because that by doing so, then the fraud will be evident because the different tallies won’t match, thus proving fraud.

      now, maduro is being proclaimed, obviosly CNE will avoid the requested 100% audit. what’s next? that’s my question. If the requested audit does not take place then will capriles make public whatever HARD,”irreversible”, evidence he has, exposing maduro as a fraud?

      You guys are saying that slow and steady wins the race… no problem with that, but, what could be the next step?

      On a side note, did you notice that there are extra new voters on the REP? Supposedly, for this election, the same electoral registry from 7-O was going to be used, so, please explain this to me. How come?

      This are the numbers DIRECTLY from the CNE website:

      2012:
      Número de Electores escrutados. 18.854.935
      Número Total de Votantes que votaron realmente. 15.176.253
      Participación. 80,48 %
      Número de Votos Escrutados. 15.160.289
      Número total de Votos Válidos. 98,1 % 14.872.739
      Número total de Votos Nulos. 1,89 % 287.550
      Número de Actas Procesadas. 39.233

      2013:
      Ficha Técnica
      ELECTORES ESPERADOS 18.904.364
      ELECTORES EN ACTAS TRANSMITIDAS 99,17 % 18.747.496
      ELECTORES ESCRUTADOS 14.961.701
      PARTICIPACIÓN. 79,8 %
      VOTOS ESCRUTADOS 14.961.701
      VOTOS VÁLIDOS 99,55 % 14.895.107
      VOTOS NULOS 0,44 % 66.594
      ACTAS TOTALES 39.376
      ACTAS ESCRUTADAS 98,71 % 38.869

      • “if capriles does have HARD evidence that he actually won, then, why is he asking for a recount instead of showing said evidence of fraud? ”

        Because he has no evidence. How many times does the opposition have to make these bullshit claims of fraud before you all are going to realize this?

        • Ok Cort, I mean, GAC, thanks for your input.

          Now, everyone else, please reply to my previous comment as to create an oppinion on that and not an oppinion on an oppinion on that 🙂

      • I did notice! I hate CNE’s website always publishing data in different formats. I hate how they never published the final results of the “victoria de mir…”.

        They used different languages. I thought they may be just hiding the actual number, but who knows and “Número de Electores escrutados” may be not the same as ELECTORES ESPERADOS.

        • Well, it’s very simple, since fewer people voted this time compared to 7-O then it’s impossible that “ELECTORES ESPERADOS 18.904.364” is the number of votes cast.

          Also, I remember there was some confusion about the terms “Número de Electores escrutados. 18.854.935” and “Número Total de Votantes que votaron realmente. 15.176.253”. The explanation was that the first referred as the total number of voters and the second one, those who actually voted, being abstention the difference between those numbers.

          Conclusion: the REP grew from 18904364-18854935=49429 new voters.

          This might have had part on that:

          http://www.lapatilla.com/site/2013/04/15/conscriptos-y-alumnos-de-escuelas-militares-votaron-sin-que-les-correspondiera-hacerlo/

          According to that article, a group of military who turned 18 before the closing date of the REP for the 7-O elections, and therefore, could not be allowed to vote, voted anyways.

      • On the fraud thing, Capriles may have it, but may be organizing it. Proving this, as Toro says requires time, but you can’t just acknowledge the results until you are sure.

        Is not that they don’t believe in democracy, they don’t believe Tibisay. Of course, chavistas are taking things out of context. Capriles said that they won’t recognize the government UNTIL we are all certain they are legit. And that takes time. He is not just taking their word for it.

        • They don’t believe in Tibisay, but do they believe in the electoral system? Because that’s what really matters. If they do, then they know that it is virtually impossible to commit fraud.

          And, no, I am not taking this out of context. Capriles said the government was trying to “change the will of the people” and has claimed Maduro is “illegitimate”.

          He’s not waiting to have evidence. He is saying that right now.

            • Chamo, as JCN pointed out before he has not called for fraud. He has doubts and the results and is asking to clears those doubts. To provide evidence time is required and he is asking for audits.

            • Chamo, claiming that the government is trying to “change the will of the people” is exactly the same as claiming fraud. Open your eyes.

            • Get a clue;

              In a Perfect world with a Perfect Democracy I would without a doubt agree with you, but sadly this is Venezuelan Politics where appearances -at times- are more important than FACTS.

              Last night seconds after being announced winner, Maduro starter yet another round of the national pastime “He-says-she-says” by claiming that Capriles had wanted to pact with 30 mins before the CNE announced the results. Then Capriles said he did not pact with his opponent, bla-bla-bla…

              So what I am trying to say is, this is how the game is played. I do not like, I do not respect it, but I have come to accept it. If you are going to criticize Capriles for slander, then you should also criticize Maduro. Because there is foul play on both sides…

              That, among other reasons is why I like to visit this blog. I strongly believe in the premise of a “Venezuela beyond the clichés”

        • “Capriles said that they won’t recognize the government UNTIL we are all certain they are legit. And that takes time. He is not just taking their word for it.”

          This is precisely why I doubt. Are they 100% sure that they won or they have a reasonable guess that they won and they want to check the boxes?

          If they are 100% they won, they could already prove it, or be close to it in a matter of few days (if not sooner). 99.5% the won doesn’t work.

          • I think they know they won , having witnesses that have direct access to electoral results at every polling station allow them this knowledge , however because the CNE has given official figures which dont tally with those they have from their extensive web of witnesses , they have to move carefully to show the world in a very rigurous way what exactly the CNE has done to doctor the results in Maduros favour . If they arent allowed by the regime and its subservient institutions to go through this methodical review of the results they will eventually make public their proof for all the world to see exposing whatever fraudulent manouvers the CNE has engaged in to tamper with the results.

    24. Tibisay told Capriles he could go through the legal route, just as they did in the U.S. Which always reminds me of this….

    25. I would love to see someone stand up and throw a shoe at Maduro.

      What a damn loser that guy is.. Los rojos rojitos son sinverguenzas todos.

      • Their servility can make them the fastest acting state body in the world or the slowest depending on what their political masters demand of them . They are there to provide a fachade of legality to what is ultimately a gangster outlaw regime .

    26. This would be true in a situation where the incumbent is not so desperate to jealously keep authority and control—to hide evidence of fourteen years of crimes, of the absconding of the national gold reserves to Cuba, stealing the oil revenue, demagoguery, and all the rest that you’ve known for more than 5100 days. But, this opponent is not loyal to the people, doesn’t respect laws, has no morals or scruples, and cares not at all about the constitution, even the one it wrote and re-wrote. They don’t play by any rules,just what works at the moment. They are bossed by the Princes of Lies aka Cuban Intelligence, which intends to complete its’ colonization of Venezuela. It is important to try to make the statement that more than50% of the country does not agree with their program openly and freely, probably another thirty percent would if they did not fear losses of privileges, reprisals, etc. But to focus all efforts on educating these mamarachos, I am sorry, it is a fool’s errand. Organize, organize, organize and prepare to defend your families and the country against an internal enemy that is treacherous and treasonous. Get the evidence on their corruption and private investments in tax havens and in Westonzuela. Hope for the best,be prepared for other. They will not go legally or quietly. You don’t live in Cubazuela yet. I hope your experience is better than my ancestors, 900 years is along time to reunite a nation and win restored liberty. hasta que son despedidos los cubanos hermosa Venezuela sigue siendo en las cadenas

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