Back in December, just before news broke of El Comandante’s final, doomed Cuban surgery, I wrote this post,
Well, guess what: none of the guys who’ll be fighting it out to take the coroto after [Chávez] is gone are likely to feel bound by his red lines. The upper reaches of the chavista governing elite are top-heavy with narco-drenched gangland types, and they won’t even have a controlling figure standing over them to keep the inevitable tensions between them from escalating out of control.
In this context…the best case scenario after he’s gone is a relatively uncontested transition to an underling who retains at least some commitment to the original red-lines.
I closed it with a call to “check back in six months or so”. So…how did I do?