DING! DING! DING!

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I was writing a post on how screwed we were since the black market rate of the Dollar crossed the 300 Bolivar threshold a couple of days ago. Never mind. Just deleted the whole thing. This tragedy is self explanatory. 

Translation: According to DolarToday the black market rate just hit 402 Bolivars per 1 US Dollar.

Now, we usually don’t take DolarToday too seriously, but what else is there? Feel free to take this subject to town in the comments section.

Enjoy the rest of your evening.

1 COMMENT

  1. So, like, every 100 Bolivar note is now, officially, …a quarter. I hope someone remembers to oil the printing presses at night….

  2. Great news. That will bring more inflation, longer lines, less food, money will buy even less. That’s what pisses people off. Hopefully when the $ hits 500 or 1000, even millions of Chavistas and enchufados will wake up.

      • 1/ Si tengo.
        2/ No digo medicinas, eso es imperdonable. Pero la escasez y las colas tienen que seguir mal, y si, ojala que empeoren: creo que es la unica manera que la gente despierte y se arreche, inclusive los arroceros y enchufados, que son muchos (3 Millones de empleados diretos de la dictadura, mas mucho millones mas de chupacabras por ahi con sus tigritos..)

        Si la escasez empieza a mejorar, las colas disminuyen, la luz no se va tanto, la gente se empieza a acostumbrar.. y viviras en Cubazuela2 hasta el 2050.

        Que prefieres??

        • El problema a estas alturas no es que la gente no esté arrecha (si lo está) sino que no tienen cómo canalizar su arrechera.

          • Good point.

            Pero y ese 30% o 25% que todavia “apoyan” al Chavismo, mas todos los empleados publicos y demas enchufados, si mejora la situacion de las colas, la inflacion, electricidad.. , mas los votos robados, estamos jodidos.

            La gente habla mucho del dolar, o las teorias de sistemas politicos.. a la gente lo que de verdad le duele es el bolsillo. Ni siquiera la inseguridad, asesinatos, secuestros parecen importantes.

            A la hora del te, la gente sale a la calle cuando se acaba el pollo, la arepa y no hay agua o luz. Hasta los panales aprenden a lavar, aprenden a usar servilletas o lo que sea en el baño..

            Reitero que si las colas mejoran, mayor abastecimiento y racionamiento, capta huellas, etc, nos jodimos. despues de 16 años, no creo sino en mayor erosion del poder adquisivo.

        • Creo que el verdadero problema es que esa millonada de gente todavìa enfila los cañones hacia donde no es (ver Aporrea, artículo por Efraín Granadillo). Asì, si reaccionan a la escasez, esperaràn que los que vengan sigan los pasos del difunto, o seràn vistos como traidores. Dia malo, pesimista.

  3. The writing has been on the wall for the last several months. Throughout this time I’ve been wondering if the Venezuela government will fall like the Berlin wall or like the Romanian government in the 1989. I think it is up to Maduro in the coming weeks. Hopefully it will be a peaceful transition. This farce cannot continue for much longer.

    • I agree. Desestabilización Mayamera at its finest ( not that there is anything wrong with that.). Honestly, there´s literally no way the market can act in 12 hours for a Bs. 50 move. DollarToday, hope you know what you´re doing.

      • The reason why its so easy for Dollar Today to report such drastic moves in the exchange rate is because there is no credible institutional or financial marker as to how the non official exchange rate is actually moving , the official rates are suspect of being manipulated by a govt that silences unwelcome information or distorts it to its convenience. Also inflation is fast approaching the uncontrolled hyperinflationary point because of the irresponsible manner in which the govt is using the money printing presses to paper wall the lack of dollars and the now incontrollable debasement in the value of the BS which such wild printing itself is causing.

        I dont think that this is deliberate. the result of a sinisteer cuban inspired conspiracy to have every body desperately seeking basic staples or doing endless queues or trying to use a debased currency to put food on the table , because it obvious to anyone with minimal access to information on what the govt is actually doing on the financial front to come up with enough currency to stave off the looming threat of default .

        They are grabbing at every straw because they know that if a default does ocurr their capacity to manouvre to bring in even small flows of needed import with which to control the populations smoldering anger will be minimal to null . and that would be their downfall. !!

      • Barring a widespread systemic shock or major news, I agree. To put this gain by the dollar in perspective, the simplified delta is nearly 6 standard deviations over the past calendar year’s movements, 4 over the year to date and 3.5 over the past 50 days. The last two include March’s wild fluctuations with more weight applied than the calendars.
        That….on its own, is beyond abnormal.

        Either someone is monkeying with the reporting, or the good people of Cucuta have information no one else has, be it correct or incorrect. Note that the Simadi rate (mostly useless) is normal and the weakening of the implied rate is not outside recent movements, nor are those movements a surprise.

      • Emiliana, it’s called supply and demand–there are very few dollars out there, and a lot of bolivares. When the Govt. stopped allocating $ for cupos viajeros, the DT $ shot up. If one wants to travel, or is stranded outside Venezuela, one will pay up what it takes to get one’s needed $. The truly amazing thing is that the Govt. doesn’t/can’t intervene to cap/slow, at least temporarily, the Bs. decline–this also tends to put the lie somewhat to the thesis that arbitrageurs have loads of 6.30/$ they are willing/able to sell in the free market.

  4. I believe Quico has previously nominated Mark Weisbrot, economist ordinaire, for making The Worst Prediction in Human History, dated November 2013:

    “Inflation peaked at a monthly rate of 6.2% in May, then fell steadily to 3% in August as the government began to provide more dollars to the market. It jumped to 4.4% monthly in September, but the government has since increased its auctions of dollars and announced a planned increase of food and other imports, which is likely to put some downward pressure on prices.”

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/nov/07/venezuela-not-greece-latin-america-oil-poverty

  5. Something seems…wrong…. here.

    What would cause this sort of movement, informal or otherwise? The WSJ article? Not like that is big news, or a surprise.

    No new statistics have been released in months, that I am aware of.

    The trajectory for this sort of shift exceeds, by quite a bit, recent volatility bands over the past year (such as they are for an “informal” marker) by, just eyeballing the 14.7% change, a couple of stdevs. The last time there was any sort of movement close to this was in March, when they announced their quasipseudocambiopaquetazo, which came to nothing.

    Maybe that ton of cocaine the Colombians brought down needs to be replaced on short notice…

    • I don’t know how they can actually measure this stuff, but it seems that people just decide to increase the price of the few bucks there are and someone pay it. It may have something to do with the palazo they gave to the international reserves a few days ago maybe?

  6. A few months ago everyone freaked out when it crossed the 100th mark, now that all seems so distant now. Good times that wont come back.
    A year ago it was around 70.

  7. Who cares about the dollar or International Reserves in the street..

    How long are the Lines and how bad is the Escasez out there? And Inflation, poder adquisitivo?

    As long as THAT keeps getting worse, not better, we will be fine: The shit will eventually hit the fan.

    • Well, everything the regime does to steal more dollars will directly cause more scarcity and thus longer lines and more destruction of buying power.

      So, cadivi was the real reason chaburrismo will get its own throat slitted.

    • I see it as a reliable “leading” indicator of the aggregate market. I don’t take the daily volatility of the Cucuta market seriously. But, if you were to plot a 30-day moving average from the DolarToday rate, I think it would approximate the actual market price.

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