App Update: Agonizingly Close to The Supermajority We Need

New polling data suggests the opposition is within striking distance of winning 112 seats in the National Assembly: the all-important 2/3rds supermajority.

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A new Datanalisis poll is making the rounds, and it’s something. It shows the proportion of people saying the “Country’s Situation” is positive at an all-time low. Less than 10% now. 9.6% to be precise.

That number is the single input in our Legislative Elections Forecasting App. In this kind of public opinion climate, the App predicts the opposition would get 111 seats in the 167-seat national assembly: that’s one seat short of the magic number.

The magic number is 112. That’s the two-thirds supermajority, the number you need to approve Organic Laws and, much more importantly, to dismiss members of the Supreme Tribunal.

Right now, with the Supreme Tribunal stacked with government partisans, that power is extremely important: without it, the TSJ can basically nullify much that an opposition majority gets approved in parliament.

The opposition is within striking distance of 112 seats and a game-changing 2/3rd Supermajority. Our model has us just shy, but the polls look just horrible for chavismo. I really think it’s too close to call.

37 COMMENTS

  1. Sure but according to the app, it has to go down to 3.0% for the magic 112th curul to be ours… that’s mighty, mighty low….

    • At these levels it becomes academic: I think what the App is really saying is that with Situacion Positive on single digits, it’s pretty much a toss-up.

  2. Even if the whole system is rigged and fraudulent, I’m dragging people to vote, because if they don’t want to recognize they’re down and screwed, then we’ll need as many people as possible to defend the results, the ACTUAL results, not tibi’s “irreversible tendences”

  3. One can always hope for a some ‘talanquera’ hop if they are just a few seats out. After all, self preservation and new found dubious honesty is something that is ever more common in Chavismo, as Mr. Nieves showed.

    Today Mr. Bocaranda reported that Maduro is having a hard time finding people to stack into the TSJ a symptom disintegration in the chavista ranks, if true.

    http://runrun.es/runrunes-de-bocaranda/runrunes/234443/los-runrunes-de-bocaranda-hoy-10-11-2015.html

  4. Does anyone in the opposition have faith that the Chavismo apparatus will go down without a fight?

    It’s not enough to just take 112 seats. If they’ve already stacked the court system to nullify laws, what makes you think they won’t do any other undemocratic thing to hang onto power?

  5. Francisco what do you think of Schemel’s comments that the difference between opposition and the government decreased in the last couple of weeks?
    Could this be true or is a way of documenting some kind of cheating during the election

  6. Myanmar’s elections were interesting this weekend. Very different country from Venezuela, almost twice the population, more than 100 hundred ethnic groups, Buddhism and other minority religions play a much larger role than in Vzla’s mestizo tricolor con sancocho majomeno catolico pa’ todos.

    But there are some similarities, long-time dictatorships to overcome (ours is just better disguised but less efficient), both 3rd world countries ravaged by ignorance and corruption. Both countries a mess, our probably even worse than theirs. Yet some form of “disciplined democracy” somehow prevailed, and the amazing Aung San Suu Kyi would not be stopped.

    For one thing, there was widespread international observation. And voting was manual, not with vulnerable Chavezmatic olivetti machines, as will be the case in Vzla (sadly too, in the Philippines..

    http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asiapacific/vote-counting-is/2250190.html

    Our Criollo elections will be 10 x dirtier and way more fraudulent, you can bet on that. (And theirs were far from pristine (ask John Kerry) . All the tricks in the Latin-America book of electoral fraud, and then some.

    Other than that, here are some original observations:

    http://daniel-venezuela.blogspot.com/2015/11/can-opposition-win-election-yv-3.html

  7. Nobody knows what’s going to happen on Dec 6th. If we’ve learned anything from observatorio Venezolano de la violencia is that you can’t use linear extrapolation to make reliable predictions.

    I’m not familiar with the numbers. But the “percepción positiva” has probably always oscillated between 30-80%. 10% territory is the equivalent of the Twilight Zone. Chavismo will definitely lose, but them getting 70 or only 40 representatives is well within the realm of possibilities.

    • “Linear extrapolation”?!? [persignándome]

      Ni de vaina! Read our little technical note. We’re dumb but we’re not that dumb…

      • Whenever you get the elasticity between two variables you are using data points in a limited range. My point is that we have literally no points anywhere close to the 10% region. There’s nothing wrong with the app itself, it’s just that we don’t have reliable data.

  8. There is much talk about defending the revolution “no matter what,” but at this point such a “defense” and the total destruction of the country are basically synonymous. Hope that once the power starts shifting, survival instincts will kick in and water will run downhill, so to speak. As mentioned, what will be interesting and almost certainly an adventure will be who will control the purse strings (petro bucks). As he cash flow is funneled over to the opposition, look for gold reserves to go missing. Remember when Marcos tried to flee with as helicopter full of dough? Also look for the US to push for extraditions of those on their sanctions list. The worse offenders in the Chavismo racket will pay a piper of some kind if there’s any fricking justice the world.

  9. I don’t believe the map will look like that even if Datanálisis says only 10% think the country situation is good. I think the results will be more like if you enter a higher number. But that’s just me.

    Also, I’d like to state what I’ve said before: Check the elasticity of those districts. I know you made some changes to the map, but I still have a hard time believing states like Trujillo, Guárico, Vargas, Falcón and Monagas will be entirely swept by the MUD (feats we’ve never seen) and still manage to lose some districts we won in 2010 for no reason – unless you know something I don’t. I do understand your argument that the map will probably get some circuits wrong for each party and the results will likely cancel those mistakes, but I’m just saying you could try to make it the most accurate way possible.

      • I do know how wave elections work. I also argue we have one in front of our noses! I just question the magnitude of that wave, and where will it occur, that is all. Waves can be enormous, or not that big (mini-waves). Remember that the dynamics of Venezuelan elections favor the PSUV in rural areas.

        (Fun fact about the map you posted, Reagan had already carried Massachusetts in 1980, and it wasn’t THAT much of a Democratic state back then. Reagan only lost Minnesota because it was Mondale’s home state.)

  10. But do we really think that even if we do get the coveted 112th seat that Tibisay would give it to us? I have no doubt that we will get 3/5 of the AN, but I’m really really skeptic on the whole “the CNE is just gonna hand us the reigns of the kingdom” scheme. Maybe they’ll let us have 110 seats, but 2/3? I just can’t see it happening…

    (But we still have to get out there and vote either way, don’t get me wrong)

  11. Feldman said: I’m really really skeptic on the whole “the CNE is just gonna hand us the reigns of the kingdom” scheme.

    That, to me, is the crux of it. Sure we have to get the majority, now or in the near future, but actually getting power will involve all kinds of back-room deals one imagines…

  12. Just to reiterate an earlier point: With the 9.6% value, the tool projects Chavismo narrowly winning Circuito 12 of Zulia (Sur del Lago). However, today there was a release of a circuit-specific poll by Datanalisis that gives Freddy Paz (MUD) some 35 points of advantage over Blagdimir Labrador (PSUV). Could be forged, but for what it’s worth, it was published on La Patilla: http://www.lapatilla.com/site/2015/11/10/datanalisis-ofrece-32-puntos-de-ventaja-a-freddy-paz-en-el-circuito-12-del-zulia-graficos/

    I really think the tool underestimates the swing. We might have been in a super-majority ballpark for a while.

    • They’ve been showing polls for a while that put the MUD with ridiculous leads in traditionally chavista circuits. We’ll see if that holds.

    • The model used by the tool probably works well in a certain range of imput value, but it breaks down at more extreme conditions. That’s due to a variety of reasons. A few people will always say the country is doing well or just about anything else on any poll. Their numbers are low and usually have no discernable impact, but in a situation where most of the people disagree, their contribution becomes significant.
      This could also include people who are suspicious of the pollster and say the country is doing fine, whereas they don’t think so and intend to vote for the opposition in the election.

      Overall, if the election is free and results are not significantly rigged, a supermajority is certainly well within reach.

  13. Funny post to see in December7th when the pitchsforks aims the ChuoTorrealba’s head por the gente arrecha del East from the East.

    The fucking elections going to be amañadas by the motomouses “como sea” intimidating people all over the monte & culebra regions of benesuela!!! You know that right? RIGHT?!!! War avisada don’t kill soldiers my friends.

    IF opossition get the 50% percent of the seats I will consider that a BIG MOTHERFOCAS WIN. A MIRACLE!!!

  14. First Off: congratulations for the new look and content, both excelent.

    Seeing how much you guys like electoral research, goes a humble suggestion.

    Find out, and inform your increasing readers, if in any global election ( lets say last 20 years) a party that had a 20-30% preference before voting, ever lost.

    • its not a single election but MANY separate elections to choose nominales and list candidates.
      The model operates the different scenarios for each Estado and legislative jurisdiction (circumscripcion electoral) and I do not doubt of its accuracy (to model that is!).

      My point is, what is the plan not only to get people out to vote, and to sort out the myriad challenges that will pop up during voting day BUT! the plans to close out the voting cycle, support escruinios and have enough show of force adn credible treat to the electoral administrator to publish the actual results.

      The asymmetry between a incumbent central regime apparatus and 100+ separate diputado hopefuls (in a few handful parties!) is what provides an advantage (IMO) to the regime.

      The regime has the means, the motive and the opportunity to continue to commit fraud in the coming elections. The oppositions have little real force to coerce the regime into fair play.

      Who knows! Maybe there are rainbow unicorns out there.

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