A new Datanalisis poll is making the rounds, and it’s something. It shows the proportion of people saying the “Country’s Situation” is positive at an all-time low. Less than 10% now. 9.6% to be precise.
That number is the single input in our Legislative Elections Forecasting App. In this kind of public opinion climate, the App predicts the opposition would get 111 seats in the 167-seat national assembly: that’s one seat short of the magic number.
The magic number is 112. That’s the two-thirds supermajority, the number you need to approve Organic Laws and, much more importantly, to dismiss members of the Supreme Tribunal.
Right now, with the Supreme Tribunal stacked with government partisans, that power is extremely important: without it, the TSJ can basically nullify much that an opposition majority gets approved in parliament.
The opposition is within striking distance of 112 seats and a game-changing 2/3rd Supermajority. Our model has us just shy, but the polls look just horrible for chavismo. I really think it’s too close to call.