NPR’s Morning Edition Tells the Story

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Somehow, amid all the craziness last night, I found 10 minutes to talk to NPR.

Great fun.

75 COMMENTS

  1. By the way, congratulations on calling the election almost right. I’ve never been happier to be mistaken. You should have seen the people celebrating here when Tibi announced the results.

  2. Good job! You guys really deserve multiple kudos!

    I think you are going to get more contributions as a result of your excellent work!

  3. I´ve posted this in the other topic and didn´t work out.

    It is still 99. There is no official word on oppo getting 113 as they claim. So what?

  4. Yes, Caracas Chronicles did a phenomenal job pre-election with spot on predictions, and during the election even while being hacked! Felicitaciones! The NPR piece certainly underscores the turning tide yesterday’s election results represents for Venezuela – I almost can’t believe it and couldn’t sleep last night thinking about what the future may bring.

  5. All very amazing. The work downscale for the last 1+years headed by MUD Secretary Chuo Torrealba (“Radar De Los Barrios”) was extraordinary, as was CC’s prediction/reporting. Anyone who reads but doesn’t contribute to CC should be ashamed, but CC in turn should enable yearly contributions, including by check, since there might be circumstances favoring this method of payment (as in my case). Once again, kudos to all–the victory was so grand that any attempt at weakening it will be very difficult for the Regime–you can’t easily go against a 2/3 majority (and more, if the playing field had been equal) of your own people.

      • Contributors may also go monthly donation and delete the regular transaction later in their pay pal account anytime they want.
        I won’t do delete my regular transaction, though I’ve never been to Venezuela. For me this is just the best politics media outlet on the whole planet. And due to internet I pay very little for journalism, so I have some money left to pay for the best.

  6. Great work, Quico (of the “popular blog Caracas Chronicles” jeje). And Smilde, aka Prof. “both sides are the same”, predicting Maduro would be recalled. Cosas veredes…

    • Smilde is on Twitter right now questioning whether his boy would have lost if oil was at $110. Whiner baby.

      And it’s very true that the gang at CC did fantastic work in predicting this. People, including me, should be sending you money. (And I will.)

      Right now, the big danger will be buying off of a few MUD representatives. 113 can become 108 quite quickly if people are susceptible to million-dollar bribes.

      • Not that I’m a big fan of Smilde, but I had the same thought.

        Had Oil continued at over $100/barrel I too doubt the change would have come.

        Other thoughts:

        It’s a shame we had to have Defense Minister Padrino Lopez basically come out and warn Chavismo against taking to the streets. The day Venezuela doesn’t need a military goon to “guarantee the results” is a day to look forward to.

        This was not so much a vote for the opposition as a vote against Maduro & Co. I hope this opportunity does not go to waste.

        It is telling that the full results were not announced HOURS after all the data came in. It shows that despite having “the worlds best election system” we are still lacking in transparency and “maturity to accept results”.

      • “Smilde is on Twitter right now questioning whether his boy would have lost if oil was at $110. Whiner baby. ”

        Would the beef jerky have “won” if the oil had been at less than 40$ during all his regime? Doubtful.

      • Smilde is correct that had oil remained at $110/BBL there would have been much less probability of Chavismo yesterday by such a large margin. At the same time, the price of oil dropping to as low as $10/BBL in 1998- in addition oil remaining below 1981 prices from 1986 through 1998- was a definite factor in Chavez getting elected in 1998.

        Why did Juan Bimbo think that the 1970s and early 1980s were good times, while Venezuela suffered through bad times from the mid 1980s through 1998? Because the price of oil was high from 1973-1986, collapsed in 1986, and didn’t rebound until 1999 onward. [Yes, I know this is a generalization, and like all generalizations, one can find exceptions to it.] And as others have pointed out, had oil remained at $40/BBL from 2002 through present, it is doubtful that Chavismo would have received their vote totals in elections before today.

        What Smilde doesn’t address is that the condition of Venezuela today with $40 oil is worse today than it was in 1998 with $10 oil. Were there rampant food shortages and long food lines in 1998? No. Say what you will about the Fourth Republic, it better managed oil price crashes than did Chavismo.

  7. Yes, great work! Thanks to CC I was able to inform part of my family who live in parts of Venezuela where they suffered from internet outage that they had won.
    And a lot of respect for the people of Venezuela.It was like watching houdini escaping from the chains. Kudos

  8. At worse I could put a few euros or dollars in an envelope.
    Or publish an acct. number in a European bank, or similar. That would allow transfer from bank to bank via a channel in which the individual has confidence from previous use.
    The latter is easy and probably common to all your readers.
    I go to the bank.
    Please transfer x euros to this acct in Spain for example.
    Have you got the name of bank, acct number and swift number?
    Yes, here it is,
    Sign here please.
    And off the money goes.
    And if it screws up the money comes back to me.

    It’s about confidence, that’s all. Oh, and some of us are older too !

  9. Hey, wait a minute, I thought the government manipulated the results and changed people’s votes and always won through fraud? What happened?? Didn’t like some 40 people die after the last election because the government had committed fraud??

    Oh, wait, it turns out that was all a bunch of bullshit and the elections were clean all along?? Hmmm, this blog has been full of it for how many years now??

    • In fact Confused, Chavistas buoyed their poll numbers by 10% in the last few weeks by handouts and intimidation.

      The opposition beat Chavismo and all the might of the Venezuelan state. In previous elections it was the might of the Venezuelan state buoyed by high oil prices that made the elections plain unfair.

      Of course there was cheating this time too, but as this blog has said time and again, Francisco being quite clear about it, is that this time the margin were so brutal in favor of the Oppo that no dirty tricks would suffice.

      Hopefully you are not so confused now.

      • Oh, I see. So when there is a larger margin in favor of the opposition you all of a sudden can’t manipulate the results and change people’s votes? That’s strange, because I’ve been led to believe that the PSUV controls the CNE and can change the results to their liking. At least that’s what Capriles claimed they did last time around… Still confused.

        • So you’ve been misled with “…change the results to their liking”. It is only to a point. In fact the current margin is already manipulated against the oppossition, but it was not enough.

          • Oh yes, that must be right. Still confused though because according to Capriles they were able to affect hundreds of thousands, if not millions of votes last time around. So why couldn’t they do that this time? Hmmmm.

          • Uh… Confused, on Capriles’s defense (Everybody ’round here knows I’m no fan of that guy), he never said that the regime could “change the results to their liking”.

            Or else, prove it with a video.

    • The writers of this blog are not those claiming massive fraud and never have been. Don’t confuse them with some of the commenters.

      If you think elections, including this one, have been ‘clean’ in the last decade than you are either a chavista troll or a completely ignorant. The level of shameless electoral violations and flagrant use of all government resources in campaigns and on election day is undeniable and well recognized by all parties.

      It’s true that some of the opposition have claimed outright fraud in large numbers, but most in the know believe the government can only illegally sway 3-5% of the total results on election day/night through of series of mechanisms (which is usually enough in close elections to win). Anything above that is near impossible with the current system of controls. And this election was anything but close, so it was a different situation. The regime was faced with either completely abandoning any pretense of democratic elections or accepting these results after doing all they could to minimize their loses. They chose the latter.

      • The writers of this blog took Capriles’ bullshit claims after the last election at face value. They hardly even questioned them. And those claims were that hundreds of thousands of votes were changed. Now you admit that this is impossible with the current system of controls??

        Wow, would have been nice if you all had realized that last time around. Maybe not so many people would have had to die.

        • “Now you admit that this is impossible with the current system of controls??”

          Actually, I did not admit that. It is within their power to influence electoral results somewhat (a few percentage points) on election day. It is not within their power, under current practices, for them to give Chavez his 11% victory in 2012 or his big 2004 victory if he really lost. That’s what I’m saying. As for the 2013 election, I don’t know if it was stolen but it’s possible. I’m glad Maduro won, though, because of the coming economic contraction after the 2012 electoral year spending binge (to cap a decade of spending binges) that I knew was coming, and I knew that would get blamed on Capriles if he had won. For the long term good of Venezuela, Capriles was better off losing IMO.

          And the 40 people killed in 2014 were not protesting the 2013 election results. They were protesting the disastrous state of Venezuela, the economy, the crime, the censorship, the dismantling of democratic checks and balances (including unfair elections), lack of transparency, the power outages, etc. Most of those killed were participating in peaceful protests.

          Speaking of how many people have to die, what is your opinion of the explosion of the murder rate since Chavez too power in Venezuela? Do you think a different government could have done any worse in controlling crime? Do you care about the people currently dying from lack of basic medical supplies? Those deaths all dwarf any politically related deaths.

          • The government has completely failed to combat crime. But what does that have to do with the opposition making up lies about fraud which causes violence? Just like any criminal that kills people must be punished, those who stir up violent situations should also be punished.

            There were about a dozen deaths right after the 2013 elections as a direct result of Capriles’ fraud claims. The deaths in 2014 were an indirect result, because most of those people protesting thought Maduro did not legitimately win the elections and wanted to overthrow his government.

            Claiming fraud can have major consequences. Thank god the government accepted defeat, and wasn’t immature like the opposition has been historically.

      • Indeed. The fraud was there this time around. To name a few. Misuse of power. Political prisoners. 2 hours of cadenas on every channel. Voting stations open after 6. Misuse of state funds. Extorsion of the employees of state owned companies. Etc. Etc. So one should be a teally sore loser to not see any fraud.

        But still. It is time to build bridges. Also with people who have a different opinion. There is nothing worse than state controlled media and people pushing the polarization message which is non existant if you look at it factually. So yeah DON’T FEED THE STATE CONTROLLED TROLL

    • Welcome back, Chris Carlson/Get a Clue/Clueless in Caracas. Can’t say I’ve missed you, though. Is this a volunteer comment out of the goodness of your heart, or are you back on the payroll?

    • For a gov that ended up so graciously accepting the results, I think it’s funny that it made threats of violence and unrest if the opposition were to win, or otherwise using intimidation techniques and manipulative rhetoric in the weeks leading up to the elections. It’s extra hilarous when you also consider the endless caradura shenanigans of MIN Unidad which have set new lows in playing dirty. Or have you only just now tuned in to national TV and have completely ignored everything else that preceded Maduro’s speech last night? Methinks you’re cherrypicking.

      If you’re going to pass yourself off as a pro-government voice of reason, do stop trying to twist facts, because it’s been long established that the majority of the deaths during those protests were not the opposition’s doing. Even the family members of those who died disagree with you.

      The last election’s results were such a close race that tipping scales in favor of one party were a very real possibility. Never mind that in that election there were more reported irregularities, and that the government still enjoyed the full backing of South America, facing very little international pressure to behave itself.

      Here’s a little universal truth that the authors discussed on this blog: An electoral body that is influenced by a ruling party can only act in one of two ways when it doesn’t have approval ratings – Ruling blatantly in favor when it is obvious that everyone voted against it, like with Perez Jimenez, or tweaking the results in a very close race that leave room for speculation and doubt, like in 2013.

      The authors didn’t anticipate fraud, they anticipated that there would be no small margin like in 2013 that would allow for trampa disimulada. And considering the international scrutiny that Venezuela was facing, they also ruled out the possibility of stealing the election outright. Hence, clean elections.

      But don’t worry, this victory will be short lived. The oligarchy and its insane bloodlust will end all life as we know it on Venezuela in no time. Just like it did on Mars.

  10. And isn’t it funny how the government immediately recognized and accepted the results? No cancelled election as was claimed by people on this blog. No coup attempts. No claims of fraud.

    If only the opposition could have accepted their defeats over the last 15 years, how many people wouldn’t have died as a result?

    Let’s just hope the opposition knows how to manage victory better than they manage defeat. Let’s just say I’m not very optimistic.

  11. Somehow, the tone of NPR’s reporting always turns me off. It makes me feel like I am being talked down to. Good job, in any case.

    Far be it from me (yes, that is irony) to tell the MUD how to do their job, but we cannot lose sight of the remaining seats. I am going to continue feeling a little on edge until the CNE acknowledges the super-majority.

    Today, everyone is congratulating each other and hugging each other. Que alegria! I finally feel justified in being optimistic about the future of Venezuela. Before, my heart was optimistic, but my head was telling me different. Today, they are more in sync.

    • Somehow, the tone of NPR’s reporting always turns me off. It makes me feel like I am being talked down to.

      That has been NPR’s way since forever. I stopped listening to NPR when as a Third Party voter who had no affinity for either the Demos or the Pubs, observed that the condescending tone of NPR always went in one direction.

  12. When the celebrations calm, there will need to be a political pivot to recover the economy! All the resources of state are still under chavismo control! There is still much to do!

  13. The chatting on Facebook this morning sounds like lots of Venezuelan want to return home! Something needs to be organized quickly to coordinate them into a common effort!

    • I recommend a call for an oversea riding for future parliaments. The size of the diaspora has been a state secret under chavismo, the new asamblea should drive for this data to be ascertain and given political representation where it fits best. Both Spain and Italy have similar ridings that I know of.

  14. Well done Caracas chronicles and I hope there will be joy and calm this Christmas for the downtrodden people of Venezuela . You are due some luck ? Reconciliation will be a new challenge , stay true and prosperity will come

  15. Confused, you represent the dour, snake-bitten loyalist who always looks to do what psychologists call a “reversion,” to try and shift focus to the crimes of the opposition while overlooking the grave and disastrous state of affairs consequent to having a bogus ideology and crooked, incompetent people trying to run a modern country in 2015. Of course you are not a native Venezuelan (your phrasing and diction give that away) so in a sense you are arguing from a theoretical perspective, not from standing in lines to get comida or watching people die in hospitals for the lack of resources. But you and your kind will be one of the principal challenges that the opposition – now the majority – will have to deal with, distracting and probably needless as this is. The “us and them” mentality will have to be overcome somehow, and it might take a saint to do it. Reconciliation – and it cannot start with accusing the “opposition” for causing “murders,” a simplistic take on a nuanced subject. The question becomes – You cannot have power. You had your change and the results were the worse in the entire world (hyper inflation, institutions sacked, health care ruined, etc.). So moving forward, what do you want for the country?

    • “confused” is the new nickname for either hectornazi “I’m gonna kill ya all”, dpusvr “I’m aryan apolitic but all the oppos are shit” or betty “noticiero digital’s octicerda”.

      That, or he’s the new resident troll assigned to this page.

      • No, I’m still here, and Confused is not me.

        I have no interest in personally using violence against any of you. That’s the role of the Venezuelan Government and the Armed Forces.

    • Juan, “Confused” is the same paid troll (can’t remember his name-immaterial) who used to come on this Blog with statistics claiming the great economic advances of the Chavez Robolucion–until the bottom fell out, Chavez died, and his “revolutionary” monthly stipend probably ended. From very credible sources, the Regime couldn’t commit large-scale fraud this time, since, when ready to attempt it, Padrino, after sounding out his lower troop-commanding ranks, refused to allow it, and, after being told the Regime/DC were going to unleash the Colectivos to the streets, brought in the Paracaidistas from Maracay (I believe the same ones from which Chavez was hatched) who were posted near Miraflores with orders to shoot dead any malingerers in the streets

      • Was told by an (oppo) barrio motorcyclist this morning how groups of colectivo motorcyclists were told to keep themselves at the ready in different places so that towards the evening , on receiving word they would go out to attack oppo targets. Around 8.30pm , they received word that the whole thing was being called off and dispersed. Maybe if the result had been less pronounced and there had been less international oversight they would have contested a result favourable to the oppo !!

      • If this is so, we should thank Padrino. Deep respect for a man that stood up and did not allow anything to happen. It was awfully quiet so the GNB did a great job.

  16. Among the thousands of things that the Opposition should do:

    Tell Maduro, “If you have even one ounce of humanity, you will release all of the political prisoners right now, so that they can spend Christmas with their families. You have nothing to gain by waiting until this is forced upon you on January 5th. Do this now! If you do, you can win back some small amount of the respect and legitimacy from the people that you have squandered over the last two years. If you do not, you will be confirmed to be the petty tyrant you are suspected of being. This gesture, which costs you nothing, would be a very good start to healing process of Venezuelan society. Let them go free right now. Don’t wait one more minute.”

    • You are so right Roy. But if he were also calculating he would do it right now.

      The first measure the new congress will pass will be a amnesty, they lose nothing and gain everything by passing it. Why then let the opposition take such low hanging fruit? I mean the whole LL affair has been an auto-gol from the very beginning.

      Now, if Chavismo does what Chavismo does, they are going to ‘ponerse brutos” with the Leopoldo thing and spend the sparse political captial they have on folly.

      I hope I am wrong.

    • Maduro may be forced into releasing them, but I wouldn’t release them until it forced upon me, and I doubt he will either. If anyone belongs in prison, they do.

    • Agree, I would like the one time donation button.
      CC don’t let go this opportunity!! … you are at the centre right now, use it to gather more support for all your staff.

  17. Hey guys, GREAT JOB!, My right hand in the air, as soon as control de cambio gets burned and venezuelan credit cards can be used as they used to, You’ll have a paying reader here…
    I love your chill approach to the news, because despite your jodedera, you are one of the most serious journalists in the country, and that is not easy to accomplish.
    Great job on the election coverage. Finally, Venezuela has elected and not just voted. Politic has indeed change forever from 6D forth. And most of it, I have lived through your work, from your forecasting almost accurate, to your attack (which I trully suffered XD).

  18. How is the regime going to claim ‘fraud’ when they run and control every aspect the electoral system? Yet them not calling ‘fraud’ is a sign of their maturity? lol

    Arturo/Confused/whoever: Time to face the truth.

    Your revolution has been a complete and total failure in every possible aspect after having every possible resource necessary to succeed (oil boom, complete power, charismatic leaders, regional support, etc). After 16 years, the country is in disastrous shape and the results are apparent to all. The revolution has been decisively rejected by a large majority of the population at the ballot box, despite all the regime’s cheating, intimidation, violence, and dirty tricks.

    What you have devoted the past decade of your life to promoting, or been paid to promote, has been a total failure. It has stained “hard left’ policies in Latin America for generations to come. I know it’s hard to accept, but better to face reality sooner rather than later.

  19. What happened to lee king yew. Thank god I don’t have have to scroll past his comments any more ..!
    Hence, horrible villain, or I’ll spurn thine eyes like balls before me; I’ll unhair thy head, Thou shalt be whipp’d with wire, and stew’d’in brine, smarting in lingering pickle.

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