One. Oh. Nine. [Updated]

31

The Supreme Tribunal’s Electoral Chamber has just approved a temporary measure suspending the election of four assembly members: three from MUD, one from PSUV, effective immediately.

It affects all three deputies from Amazonas state, and the indigenous deputy from the Southern Region, which also includes Apure state.

Without them, the National Assembly will have 163 members: 109 MUD, 54 PSUV.

Two-thirds of 163 is 108.6, so 109.

Update 1: Unless they arbitrarily extend the terms of the existing representatives from those 4 seats, in which case we’re at 111-56.

 

Update 2: Opposition-linked legal scholar José Ignacio Hernández suggests MUD is fully justified in simply ignoring the ruling:

https://twitter.com/ignandez/status/682358676515074048

https://twitter.com/ignandez/status/682359038726778881

https://twitter.com/ignandez/status/682359474250723329

https://twitter.com/ignandez/status/682359953781321728

 

31 COMMENTS

  1. Correction 167-4=163

    163×2/3 = 108.6666667 this is 109.

    112-3=109.

    This is still 2/3, so this makes this decision very strange for me.

    • If you didn’t see this coming, in the sense of brutish attacks (the specifics are almost unimportant), you don’t get the point of anti-salidismo.

      -Salidistas: You see?!! We ffdsfjsdlkfing told you!!!!!ors

      -Keepyourheadistas: Please don’t go litter the streets again. We all need to unite and pool together our collective political capital and deny those whose first priority is to SEEM undeniable, then be it. We have some very smart operators (are you happy we have Allup YET?) and all conditions, please don’t forget, in our favour.

      • I know the format of the salida was a totally wasteful disaster, but what if simply the goverment block any attempt for change and go on and rule with a minority a los coñazos, who and how les ponen un parao? I’m not counting on the poor nor the military

    • Cuando a un carajito le da una pataleta, lo mejor es dejarlo que se canse y despues llevarlo a su cuarto.

      If he is throwing a tantrum, it is as a last-resort psychological mechanism in response to a situation of POWERLESSNESS.

      Stay calm and pass the amunition.

  2. It is pretty basic to a Constitutional system that the legislature, once elected, decides how to organize its affairs. The jurisdiction of a court cannot impinge upon the internal workings of the legislature. It is an INDEPENDENT branch of government. Consequently, no court could “suspend” a member of the legislature; only the legislature can do that.

  3. Ok, so the Opposition in the Assembly say they have the Super Majority, and starts issuing orders to remove TSJ Justices and Ministers. Maduro and Cabello say they don’t have the power and gets the TSJ to rule against everything they do. The Executive branch simply carries on and ignores the AN. Stalemate.

    So, it still comes down to people power and the military.

  4. Ojo. ‘Cause they may interpret that the National Assembly has 167 Members by default. If the matter is interpretation, then Justices will rule in favor of PSUV.

  5. Acaban de cepillarse unos cuantos diputados en Amazonas, es decir, FRAUDE rojo rojito:

    http://www.lapatilla.com/site/2015/12/30/tsj-declara-improcedente-6-de-7-cautelares-interpuestas-por-el-psuv-suspende-proclamacion-de-un-diputado/

    “En el recurso contencioso electoral conjuntamente con amparo cautelar introducido por la PERDEDORA por el Estado Amazonas, Nicia Maldonado, la Sala declaró procedente la solicitud de amparo cautelar, en consecuencia, ordenó de forma provisional e inmediata la suspensión de efectos de los actos de totalización, adjudicación y proclamación emanados de los órganos subordinados del Consejo Nacional Electoral respecto de los candidatos electos por voto uninominal, voto lista y representación indígena en el proceso electoral realizado el 6 de diciembre de 2015 en el estado Amazonas para elección de diputados y diputadas a la Asamblea Nacional.”

    ¿Habrá golpe de estado? ¿Protestas? No lo sé, ya le dijeron a la gente que se meta una pea hasta el 5 de enero:

    http://www.elchiguirebipolar.net/30-12-2015/tsj-que-porfa-te-metas-una-pea-ya-que-quiere-hacer-cosas-feas-sin-que-te-enteres/

  6. The government is going to finish collapsing at this rate. Supposing we lose 2/3 majority. I really doubt we can’t flip one or two deputies from their side to the opposition.

    It’s the political opportunity of a lifetime waiting for one or two chavista deputies. There has to be a couple of them that don’t want to go down with a sinking ship.

    They will hailed heroes (doesn’t matter if they really or not), but the perception would be there.

  7. I never thought they would leave by the ballot box. More so now cause they know what the Empire is preparing. None of the indicted and yet to be indicted will live to serve out their sentences and see freedom again. They are all looking at life in prison. Under good circumstances some may get out in 20. These guys are all in their 50s. Personally, I don’t think none will be taken alive unless surrounded and forced to surrender and that wont happen under Maduro. Their challenge is to quash threats in the military and law enforcement. All the guys with indictments, will have to watch their backs because they will be sanctioned targets and under that environment, I forsee a new level of violence.

  8. Only if the ship is clearly sinking. There have been two prominent cases in recent years of regimes that appeared discredited and about to collapse. But instead of mass desertion, the regime rallied, checked defections, recruited or bought additional support, and put up an extended fight.

    The two cases are Qaddafi in Libya and Assad in Syria. Qaddafi eventually fell, but only after a long bloody fight and heavy foreign intervention. Assad has strong foreign backing and is hanging on.

    There’s an old saying: when you strike a king, strike to kill. But the chavernment is unkillable by the oppo. The chavernment still holds the executive branch and will for several years. Unless popular hostility is overwhelming, they can hang on – and possibly co-opt some oppo delegates. If they can neutralize the AN, and the army does not move against them, they can wait.

    One possibility: the army might split into Presidential and AN factions. This could result in a civil war like Chile in 1891.

  9. In the (nearly) months time since elections, what has the Maduro gov. done to improve the failed state of Venezuela? All I see is a Game of Thrones tango to maintain power. Fine. You still have power. Now what the hell are you proposing to do? Force them to answer that question in specific terms and the game is over – they have no game and no plan. The Chavistas are bankrupt in every way.

    JL

    • The “plan”, the Perestroika Chavista:

      http://runrun.es/nacional/venezuela-2/241692/ley-de-inamovilidad-laboral-fue-extendida-hasta-2018.html

      1- El vicepresidente ejecutivo de la República, Jorge Arreaza, informó este martes que el presidente Nicolás Maduro aprobó el decreto con rango valor y fuerza de Ley de Inamovilidad Laboral que estará vigente desde 2016 a 2018. Agregó que durante tres años no se podrán realizar despidos sin causa justificada y con apego a los procedimientos establecidos en la Ley Orgánica del Trabajo.

      2- La aprobación de la Ley de Semillas, que recibió el ejecútese del primer mandatario. Resaltó la valoración que se le da a la semilla indígena, afrodescendiente (!), campesina y local en la nueva legislación. De esta manera, se prohíbe la importación, distribución, producción, comercialización, liberación, uso y multiplicación de semillas transgénicas.

      Everything keeps going according to the plan!

  10. It seems that the election was a clear mandate for change. The actions of the regime are not only rejecting that mandate, the regime is corrupting the constructional process to coopt the election result. That is a clear assault on the majority of Venezuela! If it is 1/3 vs 2/3 of the population, it is not going to be accepted well, especially as the economy continues to deteriorate! If the ballot box can’t get stuff back on the shelves, what’s left to do but force change by violence. The regime is prepared for violent repression while being unable to fend off economic meltdown. It can only end in a disastrous demise of their revolution unless there is massive defection from their ranks which will include all military support.

  11. Still confused, does this affect the 2/3 or not, because I keep reading conflicting stuff.

    If it does not, it kinda sounds like a qualified threat? Like, sit down to negotiate with us something (on the lines of “inmunity forever”) or we go for the nuclear option

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