Revocatorio Today: Brace for an Anti-Climax

Think CNE is going to announce a date for the next stage of signature gathering today? You don't know Tibi.

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The baroquely —and unnecessarily— tortuous and hyperbureaucratic process to demand a Recall Referendum against president Maduro hits a bit of a milestone today: July 26th is the deadline for the CNE to finally certify whether it was able to validate the already verified signatures from 1% of voters and advance to the next stage of the process.

You might think that’s good news. You might think we’re now ready to move on to the next stage in the process, where CNE sets up signature collection posts throughout the country and 20% of registered voters have to come forward to officially demand a recall.

But if you seriously think Tibisay Lucena is going set a date for that all-important 20% signature collection process today…you have another think coming.

Of course CNE wouldn’t do that, that would be too damn sensible. Why save time when wasting time is the heart of your job description?

Instead, CNE will likely announce that the opposition coalition, MUD, as the organization that organized the previous 1% signature drive, does indeed legitimately represent enough voters to officially petition, formally, in writing, for CNE to convoke the next stage in the process. Once that written communication is received, CNE then has 15 calendar days to consider it. (I’m not making any of this up — they are.)

And after officially replying to this formal written request, CNE has another five working (not calendar) days to set a date for the 20% signature collection. It could, in other words, be the second half of August before a date is even announced for the 20% collection.

After signatures are collected, CNE must hold the recall vote within 90 days. So for the recall to be called before January 10th — the 4th year in Maduro’s term — the 20% signature collection has to be carried out before October 10th.

Will it be?

I strongly suspect only one person’s opinion counts in this regard. And that person’s name rhymes with Sandino Roques.

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    • But now you come to me and say Don
      Sandino, you must give me justice.
      And you don’t ask in respect or
      friendship. And you don’t think to
      call me minister; instead you come
      to my house on the day my daughter
      is to be married and you ask me to
      do revocatorio…for money.

  1. What about this: “La rectora del Consejo Nacional Electoral (CNE), Tania D’Amelio, informó que el ente comicial está en proceso de legitimar a la Mesa de la Unidad Democrática (MUD) como organización política que solicita el referendo revocatorio.”? That would certainly kill the RR.

    • That’s just bureaucraticspeak for what I’m saying. What they’ll announce today is that MUD officially represents the 1% of voters who signed, and MUD is therefore entitled to write to CNE on behalf of those voters to ask it to collect 20% of signatures.

  2. So they are going to announce today that they will announce something or some date at some date in the future, that date of the next announcement will be determined at sometime in the future. Is that more-or-less correct?

  3. And considering their past history, you can count on CNE rejecting the written petition several times on the grounds that it’s missing a coma or that the font is Times New Roman instead of Arial.

  4. Plot twist. After months of intense hard work and logistic MUD decides to pass on the recall of the 20% of signatures… These chabestias hacen llorar a las cebollas.

    • CNE has 21 working days to respond to the chavistas’ written request to collect signatures for a referendum to make cebollas cry…

  5. Until masses of people hit the streets everywhere, nothing will change. Corruption is all over, everyone is bribed, the CNE, the TSJ, the military, the police, the guardia, the ministries. Even the MUD and the laughable “parlamento” is probably half-bribed and corrupt by now too.

    Capriles said they would hit the streets in protest if this stupid “revocatorio” wasn’t approved. We’ll see. I doubt it. People are too scared. Next thing you know, it’s 2019, and they try to steal the presidential elections, while Leopoldo is still in jail. Meanwhile, Celia and Maduro will be travelling the world, and crooks like Cabello, Tarek and all the Chavistas will be getting richer. Y la gente asustada y pelando, viendo novelas.

    And even if the MUD wins the election in 2019, do you really think much would change. Even Ramos Allup has admitted that the austerity measures that need to be taken are extremely tough. And will be highly unpopular, if they take them, which they won’t. Start collecting Taxes, raise gas prices, no more freebies, less corruption at all levels everywhere, no more fake jobs, no price controls, no exchange control rates.

    Initially, for at least a decade, these measures would be tough to swallow. And if they take a loan from the IMF, even more austerity measures would be imposed. Soon, “el pueblo” would start hating the MUD, and whatever new president is in place. Meanwhile oil prices will not be higher, and agriculture won’t flourish by magic. Nothing is produced and Venezuela, over a million of the few qualified left the country and will not return, like you, the reader, for example, and everything has to be imported. Except there’s no money to import much, and the country was mortgaged to China years ago. In severe debt, low oil price, no alternative production, the private sector in ruins, what is the MUD gonna do? Not much at all.. Plus they are no saints, there will be corruption, as always, in Venezuela.

    Then over half of the population, which is still Chavistoide to this day, will start blaming the MUD for the crisis, a decade from now. Much like they blame Maduro, forgetting that their Hero, Hugo Chavez was in power for 14 years and created the Vzlan disaster to begin with. As the few Venezuelan friends I know that are still somehow surviving in that mess say” Este pais se jodio, y no hay nadie que lo arregle”.

    Unfortunately, a military coup, and a tough right-wing regime would be the only solution to start fixing the economy, clean-up PDVSA, send corrupt crooks that are everywhere to jail, and start educating people. Problem is most of the Military is also corrupt, bribed, starting with our new de-facto President, Mr Padrino.
    So that probably won’t happen either. Ese pais se jodio.

    • ” And if they take a loan from the IMF, even more austerity measures would be imposed. ”

      Son, there is no more strangling austerity that that imposed by the communist overlords, and chavista regime, which leaves the people to starve and die from easily curable diseases while stupid cretins like Luisana Melo and Ricardo Menendez laugh their asses off at their suffering for what the regime’s done and promptly pay their debts to the creditors outside the country.

      I prefer a million times to be “chained under the FMI’s yoke” than having to endure a single more chavista economic policy.

      • And where did I write that I was against an IMF loan? Or austerity measures, son?

        Just saying Vzla is in deep sheet, and their numerous, profound problems won’t go away by magic. Even with a major IMF loan (which they would steal half of it, and the other half would be lost in corrupt distribution channels)

        If the MUD wants to stay in power for a few years, they can’t suddenly enforce all the tough austerity measures that are needed. People would get really pissed off.

        • “And where did I write that I was against an IMF loan? ”

          Right here: “And if they take a loan from the IMF, even more austerity measures would be imposed. Soon, “el pueblo” would start hating the…”

          “which they would steal half of it, and the other half would be lost in corrupt distribution channels) ”

          And still the regime has proven time and again that they pay their creditors fast and complete enough to keep getting more loans (As I said, at the expenses of the people), otherwise, China and all the other folks that are loaning money to the regime would’ve stopped doing so a long time ago.

          “People would get really pissed off.”

          And that’s what a monolithic media-bombing apparatus is used for, to brainwash the uneducated, imbecile people about how nothing of this is the MUD’s fault but chavismo’s.

          Also, no it won’t take decades as the fatalists enjoy so much to claim, it would take at most 1/2 year to end the food scarcity, and less than 5 years to straighten the economy to levels better than 1990’s (Which is A LOT compared to where Venezuela currently is.)

  6. ” And that person’s name rhymes with Sandino Roques”

    It’s cards down for Padrino Lopez.

    I wonder if he will pop up in a cadena dressed in combat fatigues as he did on election day extolling democratic platitudes. Rumor has it that he forced Godgiven to accept the results. Of course the past 7 months have shown that he no friend of the assembly or the opposition.

    Will he really consummate last weeks power grab by keeping Maduro as figure head and political lightning rod and try to dig Venezuela out of the mess? It is not as if the military have not had a hand at this for the past few months. Moreover, if he knows any Latin America history he knows these attempts ultimately fail (and it just such a 70s throw back!).

    What I would expect is that he will quietly shepherd the revocatorio and reduce the political exposure for himself and the military. Judging by last week’s actions, I think he is convinced that Maduro is feckless.

    My fantasy world scenario is that Maduro will resign in exchange for immunity seen himself lost.

    • “Rumor has it that he forced Godgiven to accept the results…”

      No, he didn’t, it was the middle and lower commands in the armed forces the ones that threatened the higher command and the rotten dome to accept the election results because they won’t go out to slaughter thousands of citizens to defend a fraud.

      • Have seen this rumor so many times in so many places, it is becoming an urban legend. In the armed forces you have three types: los ladrones, los cabrones y los guevones, if you are looking for another type look outside the FANB.

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