#BREAKING UNASUR, MUD, PSUV and Vatican Announce Dialogue

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MUD Secretary General Chúo Torrealba, flanked by Argentina’s Nuncio and Papal envoy Emil Paul as Vatican representatives, the three UNASUR-backed former-presidents, and Jorge Rodríguez on behalf of PSUV, announced that a dialogue process will begin on Sunday October 30th in the Island of Margarita.

That was the eye-brow raising upshot from a baffling afternoon press conference that took longer to find online than it lasted.

It’s pretty telling that the members of the pro-government forces present in the negotiations were Jorge Rodríguez, Elías Jaua and Roy Chaderton: the radical civilian wing understood to be most closely aligned with Nicolás Maduro. The military-linked former governors who were most closely involved in halting the recall referendum (Diosdado-linked governors with military links like Francisco Ameliach and Francisco Rangel Gómez) were not there.

The opposition delegation was also…peculiar.  Present were few, and there is still much confusion about just how cohesive this decision was given this recent tweet from HCR, saying they learned of the meeting when they saw it on TV.

It gets worse…

Is every coalition falling apart?

Almost instantly, Diosdado took to the airwaves in his own press conference, denouncing yesterday’s breach of the AN session as a coup attempt. “We will not allow ourselves to be overthrown, we will use the same weapons as the opposition,” Diosdado said.

diosdado-rdpHe also said the opposition should be grateful that Jorge Rodriguez heroically stopped yesterday’s “coup”.

Not to be outdone, and to add more confusion to our already rattled head-wrapping exercise of this shit hitting the fan-gate, Aristóbulo Istúriz also put in his two cents, announcing in a cabinet meeting on State TV that chavismo will protest tomorrow and “march to Miraflores.”

This is not the first time the Central Government has set the table for a dialogue — remember the Diálogo por la Paz in 2014? Gaviria’s attempt a decade earlier? But credibility is at an all-time low.

The opposition electorate wants to protest and trying to demobilize them now carries its own risk.

The situation remains fluid and confused. We’ll keep you posted.

48 COMMENTS

  1. I’m not against any attempt of dialogue, but if it has been agreed by all the MUD members, judging from those tweets it doesn’t seem to be the case.

    I’d keep the pressure on the streets while engaged on the negotiations. The high government knows their lives in freedom (and ill gotten riches) depend on the outcome of the situation, it’s a complex problem and lots of people aren’t going to like the outcome of a negotiation that lets some of the corrupt flee.

    Let’s see what happens…

    • Yes. Indeed. Food for thought.

      The Vatican has its own internal mess to deal with. Starting off by issuing a photo with arbitrarily selected representatives from both sides is a pretty good indicator that high stakes crisis diplomacy is not their bag…

  2. I hope this is not some unilateral adventure.

    I don’t know why some (like Capriles) were not put on notice that this was happening.

    This has been, and will continue to be, a very strange week, even for Venezuela……

  3. I hear Jose Gregorio is missing one miracle to be canonized saint of the Catholic Church. If this works…

    However, experience shows that talking with these guys is as productive as petting a mapanare.

    • Mr. Barrera Tyszka wrote in Prodavinci yesterday:

      ¿Cómo se lucha contra esto? ¿Cómo se combate a quienes no honran sus palabras? La convivencia humana, en cualquiera de sus formas, depende de una mínima fe en las palabras. El oficialismo ya pasó un límite. No solo frente a la MUD o la comunidad internacional. Pasó un límite frente a todos los venezolanos. Ya sabemos que ellos también lo saben: no son mayoría. Ya sabemos que mienten descaradamente. Que no quieren contarse. Ya sabemos que solo podemos creer en sus amenazas; no en sus promesas. El oficialismo ha perdido su capacidad de ser esperanza. Puede tratar de seguir imponiéndonos su silencio. Pero ya no tiene nada que decirnos sobre nuestro futuro.

  4. Could this be MUD’s strategy? main players alleging ignorance which would open the door to plausible deniability for them, and at the same time MUD washing its hands on suporting street protests (assuming they occur).. at this point, if protests do follow through they would seem headless and MUD can always state that they are not responsible.. thus dodging the bullet of the destabilizing attempts from PSUV

  5. It reminds me of the colombian negotiations, the colombian government, Farc and Cuba (impartial my ass).
    Here it’s MUD, government and the Vatican (if the Pope is impartial I am an astronaut)
    Nobody ever reads a Negotiating 101 book?
    No me ayude compadre.

  6. “We will use the same weapons that the opoosition”

    Ah, so chavista lunatics are going to resort to bailoterapias, yogazos, and white hands while they are beaten to a pulp by rabid GNBs and people’s guards?

    GOD.

    DAMN.

    I would totally pay to witness that! xDDD

  7. I believe the kicker here was the Papal envoy, difficult for some of the MUD to refuse. One should not hope for much, but miracles do happen. At least, temporarily, the Govt. will not move to shut down the AN/incarcerate MUD leaders/etc., which would precipitate the final showdown. And, JR has proven his negotiating skills, by calling off the dogs that attacked the AN Sunday, the same dogs he had sicked on the AN just earlier….

      • MUD are “socialist-lite”.

        They are just less severe and more aware of the flaws. But they really are not much better.

        the fact that coallition has lasted this long is not by design but because of survival.

        when the march in Sept was an epic failure, I saw the writing on the wall.

        So glad I am not catholic and have to be embaresed by what I just saw.

      • It’s different. The AN Resolution will stand. The gauntlet has been thrown down. Lo cortes no quitara lo valiente, this time. The military will decide in the end.

  8. You mean the negotiations will not take place in Havana with old Raul the referee. Yo are kidding us, this is bogus announcement.

  9. … so when the MUD was looking to be hardening itself for a land stand, and finally saying no more, it takes LESS THAN 24 H to become yes, a bit more wait and a bit more ditherning and of course a bit more schizophrenia and dis-union.

    Its like they are always this ready to have their finest hour and then chicken out and go back to play for time.

  10. The result of the Pdvsa bond swap must be considered a failure , offers fell short of the minimum target of 50% of 2017 bonds, barely reaching a 39% level despite all the added incentives, three extensions and a last minute attempt at scary tactics ,, even if the 50% target had been reached it was still touch and go for Pdvsa to pay its coming obligations (not just those of bondholders but those of other creditors – think Chinese) , now it may be a question of time (early next year) before Pdvsa finances finally crumble and with it any hope that the govt can sustain itself financially …….meantime production is sharply declining as Pdvsa can no longer pay its key contractor to keep production going …….this serves as background to all the news we see today on the political front ……. !!

  11. I’m trying to think of a single instance where talks led to the opposition not conceding a hard asset in exchange for anything beyond broken promises. Am I missing one?

  12. Its a strategy. Look for this timeline https://twitter.com/MariaCorinaYA and all the retweets… do you see a common pattern??? isn’t that suspicious that everyone saw it on tv and the all have the “Asi sea solo desde tal lado vamos a la toma de Venezuela”??? All politicians have the same suspicious and confusing tweets.

    I have no idea what the strategy might be though… and I have serious doubt that it will be a good one.

  13. If they did not get some firm concessions ahead of time as signs of good faith, this is totally pointless.

    How can you have dialogue with a regime that just shut down the last vestiges of democracy?

  14. the same situation as always, the opposition has no mean of translating street protest into political change unless part of the regime destroys itself, therefore imaginary dialog is mud’s only hope, on the other hand the goverment wishes to eliminate the risk of anything changing by cooling the streets, so these negotiations can produce no other outcome than maduro on the presidency until 2019

  15. Who, in this group of well-meaning, smiling men, has their hands on some leverage that could be brought to bear against the regime? Please someone tell me somebody does, because I don’t see it.

  16. Unless the “dialog” is really a conversation over how and when a general election is called that will elect everybody from dog catcher on up.

  17. Dialogue the day after a Chavista mob invades the Assembly. Dialogue not long after the government says there will be no Recall Referendum. Dialogue after Maduro submits budget not to the Assembly, but to the TSJ. Dialogue after the TSJ repeatedly rules that anything the Assembly passes is not valid law.
    Dialogue?
    Dialogue?
    Dialogue?

    • Yea, is like, after finally saying this is enough and making a public call for support against the “self” coup .. now you are going to sit to have a chat? For what? To decide which % of a coup are you willing to endure?

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