Mexico, our greatly underestimated northern friend, just came up with a brilliant gambit to pry Venezuela away from Cuba’s vise-like grip on our country.

According to Gabriel Sargardter’s latest post for Reuters, the 11th biggest oil producer in the world is discussing a plan to replace Venezuela as the main oil supplier to the fifteen Caribbean and Central American nations currently forming Petrocaribe, the cornerstone of Hugo Chávez’s oil-diplomacy and one of the main reasons the the Organization of American States (OAS) hasn’t been able to reach consensus to condemn Venezuela’s descent into dictatorship.

No manches güey!

Although still in the idea stage right now, the plan could deal a devastating blow to the already weakened Venezuelan diplomacy, while earning Mexico vital hemispheric support for its future interests, including during a highly contentious NAFTA renegotiation with Canada and the U.S.

“Petrocaribe nations’ loyalty to Venezuela has prevented Mexico and allies from winning enough votes to censure Venezuela in the Organization of American States diplomatic bloc.

Even though the plan is in its infancy and may not come to fruition, talk of it could chip away at Maduro’s already weakened support. It is also a fresh example of Mexico leading U.S.-backed, Latin American efforts against Maduro’s government.

Mexico has ditched years of hands-off foreign policy to helm the push against Caracas in the hope that its efforts will be recognized during the crucial renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement, U.S. and Mexican officials say.”

Venezuela and Mexico share a long history providing cheap oil to Caribbean and Central American nations. From 1980 to 2008, both countries teamed up through the San José Accord to jointly supply 11 countries with subsidized oil. Súper buen pedo.

But since Petrocaribe was created in 2005 by Chávez, Venezuela took the lead, claiming those nations’ political support.

However amid economic collapse, Venezuela’s found it increasingly hard to supply the oil required to guarantee that support. From the 121,000 barrels per day (bpd) that Chávez supplied in 2012, Maduro could only offer 28,000 bpd last year; preparing the ground for Pemex to fill the space left by PDVSA.

“At this stage, it was unclear if the scheme would borrow from the San Jose Accord, or be an entirely new mechanism, the sources said. Nonetheless, last week, PMI, the trading arm of Mexico’s state-owned oil company Pemex, drafted a document outlining the main contours of that accord.

It was not clear why PMI wrote up the document, which was seen by Reuters, but a former government energy official said PMI would be the most likely entity for oil diplomacy. A Pemex spokeswoman declined to comment on the document but said the company was “always looking for opportunities.”

Coming just a few days after Mexican Chancellor, Luis Videgaray visited Cuba looking for a solution to the Venezuelan Crisis; this plan would be the clearest sign of the leading role Mexico is taking in the diplomatic struggle against the Venezuelan regime, a role Mexican authorities seem uncharacteristically proud of:

“The United States has been looking at ways of replacing Petrocaribe since at least 2015, according to an external White House advisor who spoke on condition of anonymity.

However, one of the Mexican officials rejected the idea that Mexico was doing the bidding of its top trade partner.

“It wasn’t the United States’ idea,” he said. “It’s ours.”

The taco might have found a way to actually help the arepa while also consolidating itself as a regional power, so… Viva México Cabrones!

18 COMMENTS

  1. Not sure Mexico is able to do this effectively. Their BBD averages are not exactly stunning.

    https://tradingeconomics.com/mexico/crude-oil-production

    Not much different that what VZ has to offer. But this might be just the thing to use as NAFTA leverage going forward.
    https://tradingeconomics.com/venezuela/crude-oil-production

    Difference is that Mexican oil is far less messy to work with up front.

    VZ oil production is slowly turning itself into a rounding error compared to what the USA is now producing.
    https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_crude_oil_field_production

  2. It is truly disgusting that oil subsidies were all it took for the politicians in these little island nations to abandon any dedication to human rights and refuse to condemn the Maduro regime.
    It is blood money. Pure and simple. The politicians that turn a blind eye to the immeasurable suffering of the Venezuelan people are a disgrace to their own citizens. Anyone that does anything that assists this regime’s hold on power, is an enemy of the Venezuelan people.
    As fewer and fewer goods are imported for domestic consumption, a larger percentage of the imported goods go to the military, the regime elites and other supporters.
    This leaves less and less food and medicine for the people.
    The regime’s threats to deny CLAP support and other benefits to critics of the regime is in essence a way of using food as a weapon.
    The upside of the regime’s actions is that stricter economic sanctions will not effect the main population of the country as much as it would if people did have access to food and medicine.
    An economic embargo against Venezuela may be what is needed and the only option outside of direct military intervention in order to remove this regime.
    The disarray or inaction of the MUD creates the real possibility of a power vacuum should the regime fall.
    There needs to be a credible opposition government, in exile if need be, that can step in and restore order in the event of the regime falling.
    The US Congress has discussed cutting US foreign aid to the nations in the OAS that have supported Maduro and his criminal cadre. I would like to see the carrot and stick approach. Withhold the aid to Maduro’s supporters and give it to the countries that decide to join the side of human rights, democracy and freedom. Once the politicians that support Maduro see their US aid going and realize that the regime’s aid will end, they will be clamoring to support the OAS resolutions in an effort to preserve any money that they can.
    I commend the Mexican politicians that are seeking innovative solutions.
    An OAS intervention in Venezuela could be modeled after the NATO intervention that was done without a UN Security Council resolution. As long as China and Russia are getting oil in payment for their loans to Venezuela, there is no chance of obtaining a Security Council resolution against the Maduro regime.
    Ideally, Latin American nations will take the lead and remove the “Yankee Imperialism” accusations from the debate.
    The people that are living in this man made Hell would most likely welcome help from anyone “Yankee” or not.

    • They’ll just change it to “Mexican Imperialism.”

      These people have to have a boogie man, and it really doesn’t matter who it is.

  3. “It is truly disgusting that oil subsidies were all it took for the politicians in these little island nations to abandon any dedication to human rights and refuse to condemn the Maduro regime.”

    Oh, John, honey, that is real politick!

  4. I expect the Mexicans are wiser and decide to supply those countries at actual good prices and not just gift oil for influence. That would be following a bad example.

    And for what it seems, the Caribbean countries would be wise to take a reasonable offer at reasonable prices instead of waiting for PDVSA to collapse and deliver no oil whatsoever to anybody but the Chinese, if at that.

  5. The taco might have found a way to actually help the arepa while also consolidating itself as a regional power, so… Viva México Cabrones!

    Que barbaro, Juan Carlos! Hilario. And true.

    Goona be an adventura to see how the chess pieces move around the world map, now that Mexico and the other nations have gotten off their asses.

    But the US petro buyers are still living off blood money. Reuters just reported that owning to the US banks not granting said buyers letters of credit enabling US buyers to purchase oil straight from PVSD, they instead buy it through Roseneft, the Rusky outfit, circumventing the US banking systems.

    What a shit show, and if dinero is involved, there are no “sides.”

  6. With VZ leaving the OAS anyway, what difference does it make how some members vote? And even if it stayed…again…what difference does it make how some members vote? What can the OAS do anyway?

    I’m not being facetious or sarcastic, but I never understood this.

    Are we just talking about yet another condemnation that won’t mean a thing?

    So to me, this is more about Mexico gaining more clout against the U.S. not regarding NAFTA…Trump ain’t gonna budge on that…but illegal immigration, as Mexico suffers from returning, U.S.-deported Mexicans (criminal and not), and drastically reduced U.S. dollar remittances sent from illegals in the U.S. back home to Mexico. (Read a 70% drop in illegal border crossings since Trump was elected!)

    These things are always about the $, and I refuse to believe MX is taking any action for the good of VZ.

    Prestige on the world stage, I don’t doubt. But only if that prestige turns into $$$.

  7. I applaud my beloved Mexico for spearheading the crusade againsst este pinche cabron, Maduro, but no mames guey – Pemex is in as terrible shape as PDVSA. The company is a leaky bucket of corruption dominated by the executive branch and oil worker union. Production is collapsing y-o-y. And if anything the highly-touted oil reform has left Pemex largely dead in the water and more dependent on Obama-style bailouts than ever. Where would they get the crude to buy off the petrocaribe nations?

  8. That’d be a cool enchilada, but hardly anything to even bother the Cubazuelan Narco-Kleptocracy.

    Diablodado, the Rodriguez ugly and evil twins and all Chavistoide criminals would continue to laugh all the way to the bank. “Sell that PetroCaribe cheap oil elsewhere, who cares, anyway, give it to the Chinese..”

    Those laughable, double-faced Central American little countries and them flimsy little islands have zero international power; Caricom is just another tropical joke. “No nos hace ni cosquillas, guero” the Tareks would say. Mercosur kicked Kleptozuela out, SO WHAT?? Nada chamo, ni pendientes..

    Only way the Cubazuelan crooks leave is by FORCE, yes, military force, covert, fast, surgical, coordinated, behind the scenes, PLUS severe economic blows (by the USA and India – no more / gasoline business). But them wimps can’t even do that.. too many commercial interests at stake. Political/Economic crap, as usual.

    All talk, no concrete actions, see what all this Pence talk at the Doral yesterday ACHIEVES, in reality: Zip, Nada, Ni chinga, Guero..

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