Today, following the disputed election in Bolívar State, MUD demonstrated CNE committed tallying fraud at 11 different voting tables, altering the result of the election.

This is a game changer. Here’s why.

Venezuela’s machine-based electoral system has many, deep problems, but one key redeeming feature: it can be audited. If the results CNE announces in Caracas at the end of the day don’t match the actual votes punched into voting machines, that disparity will be blatant and easy to demonstrate. Tallying fraud cannot be hidden.

Check this out:

Infographic: Emiliana Duarte

Voting machines produce a printed tally (acta) of votes at each voting center before those tallies are sent back to CNE headquarters in Caracas. Witnesses from all sides have to sign that print-out. (You see that on the right of the image above.)

After that tally is printed and signed, the machines are hooked up to the internet to send the data electronically to CNE, which puts up the tally on a website. (On the left, in the image above.)

If CNE’s website fiddles the count, it’s obvious, because the website won’t match the machine-tally.

Indeed, it doesn’t.

In Bolívar, the printed machine actas show thousands more votes for Andrés Velásquez than the CNE website shows. CNE’s website shows PSUV Candidate Justo Noguera winning the state by 1,471 votes. Without fraud, Velásquez is the winner.

According to veteran journalist Eugenio Martínez, these eleven machines were unable to send their data electronically to CNE. The data was uploaded by hand, and in the process, adulterated.

Could it be that Velásquez adulterated the machine tallies?

It’s extremely unlikely. Here’s why.

Each acta is from a single machine, corresponding to a single voting table in voting centers that have several voting tables. You’d expect broadly similar results across different tables within a single voting center: after all, these are all neighbors in one area divided randomly between tables (according to their ID numbers.)

In each case, the CNE website gives results for this particular table that look nothing like the results at neighboring tables in the same voting center. But the machine tallies MUD is presenting show results broadly similar to those other tables within the same voting center.

MUD wins my Crisp New $100 Bill

These eleven actas prove fraud swung the election.

But they prove something much bigger, too.

For over a decade, the opposition has had a problem. While claims of fraud have circulated after many a lost election, it’s never been possible to show actual tallying fraud with the actas in hand as evidence. This crippled its credibility in international and even domestic circles.

Back in 2005, I first offered to send a crisp, new $100 bill to the first person to show a disparity between the CNE-tally and the machine printed tallies. For over a decade, nobody’s been able to claim that prize.

Today, MUD won that $100 bill.

The election for governor of Bolívar State was stolen and we can prove it.

This changes everything.


 

Here, for the record, is MUD’s full press release about this:

The results that favor Maduro’s candidate in Bolívar, Justo Noguera, are fraudulent. They present votes that have been tampered with and in most cases, votes were taken from the Democratic Unity Roundtable (MUD) candidate, Andrés Velásquez.

The Democratic Unity Roundtable presents to Venezuelans and the international community the discrepancies in the results published by the National Electoral Council (CNE) on its official website and the tallies printed by the electoral machines in Bolívar during the gubernatorial elections on Sunday, October 15th.

Eleven tallies display different data than those that can be found on CNE’s official website. The evidence is overwhelming and shows that it’s Andrés Velásquez who was elected governor of Bolívar and not Maduro’s candidate, Justo Noguera.

The total of votes taken from Andrés Velásquez and added to Noguera, reduces the difference to 2,199 votes in favor of MUD’s candidate, which certainly changes what the electoral institution claims, that Maduro’s candidate won by 1,471 votes. According to the evidence, the winner is Andrés Velásquez by 728 votes.

You can find the inconsistencies between the tallies and the digital results in the links under every image.

 

 

 

75 COMMENTS

  1. “This is a game changer. Here’s why.”

    Please, DO NOT use this phrase again. It is a dictatorship and this type of thing will not change anything. Once you understand this, your writing will make more sense.

  2. Earlier this week I said a smoking gun had to be produced. With this the elections becomes another dose of poison into Chavismo, but certainly not a lethal dose. You will just get Jorge Rodriguez smirking on TV saying ‘so what?!’.

    Confirming that Chavismo cheated is very important as it bolsters the reason for everyone, both inside and outside of Venezuela, to treat the government as a base military dictatorship.

    But while this spectacle unfolds, there is a blood chilling spectacle of the value of the Bolivar! In Dolar Today it read Bs 36201 per US$! If hyperinflation is a tsunami, the sea just recoiled before rushing back in to obliterate the land.

  3. Are you going to retract that “the government’s latest election win was real”?

    Hopefully that’s one of the things that this “changes”.

  4. Yeah, but chavismo isn’t letting Bolivar out of their hands now, not unless an insane amount of pressure is put on them. And let’s be frank: That probably won’t happen. Every day that passes by, Justo Noguera Pietri is more likely to remain governor.

    Good on Andrés for showing the actual actas. Like you said, it’s a big step.

  5. Weii it’s a game changer in the sense that Quicio now can say there was fraud albeit in one state’s vote And in fairness I guess he would say there is a way finally to judge future elections for fraud and that is a game changer. But this newly discovered instance of fraud is not, in my opinion a change in his overall position that a majority of Venezuelans voted for the Chavistas despite the fact that your country is in an economic free fall and your citizens are starving. This is his opinion as I understand it and I hope I am not being unfair to him.

  6. So what is it then, every time I visit this website since the elections it’s either there was cheating or everything was fine we lost move along there’s nothing to see here and then back to yeah there was cheating involved.

    • I know right? all of those analysis weren’t taking into account the Bolivar state, because the results announcements were delayed for two days.

      This has nothing to do with, say, Miranda, this arroz con mango the government just came up with is another beast entirely, and we’ve never have proof of fraud this clear. Now is time to hit them hasta con el tobo!

      • In Miranda about one third of the actas got lost becasue the witnesses wither left their posts or didn’t go in the first place.

        The same happened in Lara.

    • But now his spin is going to be:

      “Well, at least I advocated people to vote, so we could now PROVE their fraud!”

      (In all fairness, I can’t say he himself fully advocated for abstention or participation.)

      Where guys like you and me were saying. “Why waste your fucking time, and give the Chavistas any credibility at all that this was a real election?”

  7. Ciertamente. Fraude. El total de las actas en Bolívar no es igual al total en la página del CNE.

    Si antes no lo habían detectado, también con las actas en la mano, significa que antes no lo habían hecho; si no hay pruebas, no hay delito.

    Y, por cierto, el fraude se detecta gracias A QUE LA GENTE FUE A VOTAR. Otra prueba que el abstencionismo no sirve para nada.

    • Juan, please friend, what part of the movie did you miss?

      It’s not about estado Bolívar. Remember the whole interest in this election (besides the candidates and ramus allup) was to defeat the psuv-govt-maduro, right? And to prepare for the presidential elections, right? it was not about estado Bolívar or Zulia, or if the gochos son arrechos o no.

      The psuv-cne-fanb knew that, they did everything to stop the revocatorio, they did everything to stop the starving people during four months of intense protests, they killed, they kidnapped, the violated any law, they declared more than 8 million votes in the ANC, right? they blame president trom of the economic crisis, they “reubicaron” 1 million voters 72h before the elections without any shame, they sold debt to goldman sachs that you and the rest of your brothers will pay 3 times, right? they gave up your Arco Minero to China, and so on, and endless so on.

      So why are you, my friend, playing their game, talking about “ACTAS” and the possibility that this people really got so many voters (remember voters is not equal to votes, right?) if so why the FRAUD will be reflected in ACTAS? is the psuv-cne-fanb ruling for 18 years because they are so stupid and they will give the evidence you are looking for?

      Is it possible for these people (psuv-cne-fanb) to stuff the ballots with millions fake voters but REAL VOTES EXPRESSED IN THE ACTAS? If not, let me know why?

      And this is the important part: why do you think is impossible for them to stuff the ballots with millions votes?

      Is it because their ethics?
      Is it because shame?
      Is it because they could not print millions carnés de la patria or cédulas?
      Is it because they could not find 6 thousand patria o muertes (asesores cubanos, colectivos or even fanb members) willing to be paid to spend 10 hours “voting” 500 times each?
      Is it because the captahuellas? the same captahuellas which allowed that since 2010 in some poll stations some dead people appeared voting?

      So if ballot’s stuffing occurred, why didn’t they add more votes in Bolívar? because this is part of the plan, while you are thinking about the poor Andrés Velásquez, they are stealing your future. Do you really think they care about estado Bolívar? Do they care about Capriles in Miranda? What damage Capriles made to his ruling? What about Ledezma? Or Smolansky? They don’t care about gobernaciones, Do you really think Andrés will stop the ecocidio in the Arco Minero? Do you really think he will be different than Ledezma or Smolansky?

      They planned the whole thing including the days after, and they needed to make the people to focus in something different, and here we are discussing about Andrés Velásquez, or talking about the gobernadores going or not going to the ANC, right? But no one is challenging the whole process. Why? because everything was set. Do you really think that winning or losing Bolívar will make the difference? Remember Maduro was against the ropes with all the international pressure and a presidential election to be held in the next months, right? and now what? from being the guy with 80% against him, now he is the favorite to win any election, right? why? because all of this was set, including the debates generated after the election: estado Bolívar, Actas, Abstención, Zulia, Gochos, ANC vs gobernadores, right? so that way the debate doesn’t go to the “médula”, which is how the most rejected government ever (which couldn’t fill a single block of supporters, in which his candidates hid from maduro during the campaign, which the polls shown in “el piso”, suddenly appears with 6 M votes? have you seen any debate about that? not, right? because this is part of the game. It’s the new level of consolidating power.

      You know what will happen in Bolívar? after days or weeks of show and entertainment, the psuv will give it to Andrés Velázquez, as part of the “negotiation”, so the “institutions” (TSJ, CNE, PRESIDENT and the whole SYSTEM) will seem like a real democracy. And next, the people will be celebrating because they defended their triumph over the regime, right? well actually this is what the psuv will want you to believe. And you will, right?

      and that’s why you really think the massive FRAUD is in the ACTAS, right?

      LAST CHANCE HINT: the massive FRAUD was the ballot’s stuffing, the VOTES pues.

  8. Francisco Toro you really do work like a tide, constantly in and out but never constant. To me you have proven time and again to be completely at odds with current scenarios. Your reporting and editorial trust has evaporated.
    So carry on, as you completely fit the bizarre narrative of Venezuelan corrupt politics.
    As Dickens wrote “time and tide waits for no man, my trusty partner”

    • Yes, the editorial line surrounding the need to demonstrate numerical fraud with Tally Sheets Caracas Chronicles has been espousing CONSISTENTLY FOR THE PAST TWELVE YEARS is a fickle, ever changing thing…

      🙂

          • There’s plenty of well deserved criticism. He seems to only respond, with sarcasm, to the low hanging fruit.

            But, yes, Haiku would certainly show more respect towards the readers than sarcasm and platitudes.

          • I think the forbearance of the writers at CC to these kind of bizarre and incoherent insults, not comment, is astounding. It seems to me they largely stick to the credo: don’t engage the crazy. And when they don’t, oh dear me, everybody is a bleeding victim…

          • You’re going to start up my Haiku nightmares that I had as a school kid 50 years ago.

            Why the hell do teachers torture 4th grade kids to write a HAIKU for homework!?

            4th grade kids from BROOKLYN!!!

            Damn you, Mrs. Weintraub. Damn you to HELL!!!

          • It can “seem” to you that they stick to whatever credo.

            The fact is Francisco, on the comments of this very post, only responded with sarcasm and platitudes to a couple of those “crazy” comments.
            All while ignoring plenty of valid criticism.

            Astounding forbearance? Not quite.

      • Ah the “numerical fraud”, well dont worry about that now as the opposition Governors are being prevented from taking their duly elected positions, but yes thats not “numerical fraud” so thats ok.
        Francisco you really do remind me of someone in sinking sand who just has to keep moving, as he goes under and under and under.
        Canucklehead you are still my little colonial knobber, dont worry you will allways be constant in that position you so richly deserve.

      • Quico,
        You are obviously working to a rulebook which says that the government is only permitted to carry out one type of fraud, AND that it must reveal itself as a discrepancy between electronically-recorded votes, paper and actas. In this, you put yourself into the company of Mark Weisbrot who presented an absurd argument in the Guardian proving that there was no fraud in 2013 (because of the lack of this discrepancy).

        There is absolute proof of fraud via vote-rigging in the 2013 presidential election which did NOT reveal itself as discrepancy between electronic count, paper count and actas. In other words, there was (always) an electronically recorded vote which produced a paper ballot. This could have been done by any combination of surreptitiously added firmware, illegally amended local software, a re-introduction of two-way communication with some voting machines, a brutish multiple vote addition by table-collaborators at multiple locations or a small army of multi-cedula voters. The fraud was not systematic and generalised as in the 2004 elections. An audit of the cuadernos at voting-centres where irregular voting was apparent should have given us a clearer indication of how it was perpetrated.

        When I talk here about “irregular voting”, I am not talking about something that is just “a little bit off”. In 2013, countrywide there were 8097 voting centres which had multiple tables. As you point out in your article, with random distribution of voters between the tables, we expect that the percentage votes for each candidate should be similar at each table with some random deviation at quantifiable levels of probability. Some years ago, I screened and tested all of the multi-table voting centres and considered only those where the probability of occurrence of that centre’s distribution of votes was LESS than 0.001 (one-in-a-thousand chance). Because of the large population of 8097 voting centres we do expect some unusual occurrences by chance. Specifically, we have a mean expectation that UP TO 8 of these centres could show such a large irregularity purely by chance. The appearance of a count of 16 voting centres would be considered very unusual – highly significant at the 0.3% significance level. There are actually 29 such voting centres in the data. The likelihood of this occurring by chance is infinitesimally small. Solid evidence of fraudulent addition. There is a lot more, which I will spare you.
        Don’t accept my word for it. My analysis can be objectively repeated by any competent statistician.

        The fact that we don’t know the mechanism(s) does not in any way lessen the certainty that there was vote-rigging. Hence I continue to say that you should not rule out fraud in the recent elections until after a forensic analysis of the results. Nor should you insist that there HAS to be an inconsistency between machine, paper and acta for fraud to be proven.

        • Without Oppo witnesses in 50+% of the voting centers, it’s very easy to commit fraud that is consistent among machine-acta-paper ballots. The fraud is easily proven by publicly PUBLISHING the so-called voters by Cedula number, so that those “voters” who DIDN’T VOTE, and those many who DIDN’T EVEN VOLUNTARILY EVER REGISTER TO VOTE (my estimate min. 1/3 = approx. 7mm of claimed 20mm REP voluntarily registered voters), can complain and readily evidence the fraud. In one of the past votings some years ago, some 110% of the total population of Pto. Ayacucho, men/women/children/babies, voted in an election where PSUV won, but, for FT, this wouldn’t have been counted as fraud, because it was not due to “abstention”.

  9. It’s been quite a long time since the last fair election in Venezuela. We’ve always pointed the evident bias the CNE takes to favor the Government, how it ignores the evident use of public money to sustain PSUV’s campaigns, how it makes it even more difficult for opposition voters to vote. MUD took almost a decade and almost a whole week of confuse and sometimes contradictory press conferences and a rant against arguably the most concerned person about Venezuela in the Internationa Community to show real proof of tallying fraud.

    If you want to proof something, you must -how we say here in Venezuela- have the donkey’s hair in your hands. Now MUD have those hairs.

    In the meanwhile, actions to cripple the recently-elected opposition candidates are taking place across the country.

    The situations has actually changed, not thanks to MUD’s chaotic strategy, but as always; due to the Government’s absurd authoritarianism.

  10. The game changer, if there was to be one, was the ANC election, in which there was no doubt that the CNE MADE UP MILLIONS OF VOTES. After that, what difference does it really make that the CNE stole another governorship for the PSUV?

    • Exactly, the swung the balance from 728 in favour of MUD into a 1471 for PSUV, big deal. This whole discussion about “Now we have the evidence in hands after 12 bloody (for real) years” is nothing short of pathetic. So many lives lost, so many bad strategies, so many opportunities missed, people that sold out in every way possible and all you can come up with is this bullshit. A grim and very dark “future” for Venezuela is what I see.

  11. It’s a game changer in the sense that this is proof of direct manipulation of the vote tallies, in addition to all the other abuses that have gone on that are publicly observable.

    It’s interesting that this is not unrestrained stealing, but modulated stealing. That, along with the anomalies that are Tachira, Merida and the other three, suggest to me that within chavismo, plausible deniability still carries some weight. Not a lot, but some. Maybe you can’t hang a liberation movement on that, but you can certainly see the seeds of how things might come undone, from the inside, at a moment determined by other circumstances.

    I’m glad Caracas Chronicles is not content just to assume all forms of nefarious conduct, but is actually interested in the proof. We should all be interested in the proof.

  12. I agree with cannuck. Another 20 years of careful analysis of the regime is warranted lest we reach a hasty decision that leaves egg on our face, assuming one can still find an egg in Venezuela.

    • What are you worried about?

      Even though we’re both older, we’re both going to live through at least 2045.

      And by then, everything will be fine!

  13. I hope this discrepancy and obvious fraud is put to every Chavista, every Official, in every interview and every opportunity available to make them explain this. This is evidence of the fraud… They should all have to explain it.

      • of course the people who read this blog do not need to be shown evidence of fraud to believe it occurred. they simply hear the accusation and the benefit of the doubt is given. however, for people outside this opposition circlejerk, actual evidence of electoral fraud is likely to have a significant impact because it substantiates claims…

  14. We got some great posts here!

    Francisco is really taking it on the chin, but I think we’ve all been civil and “tongue-in-cheek” about it, until now I hope. (I do though love Crusader’s “You do work like a tide, constantly in and out.”)

    I think Quico just isn’ the type of person to make a hard determination on even the modest sub-issues, let alone the major issues. It’s simply his personality. And granted, the situation in VZ is fluid beyond example, making it pretty hard to do thT.

    But us posters here are just “guessing” on a lot of things anyway, making predictions, based on what we’ve seen and learned, but they’re not WILD guesses. We’ve all done our homework here, albeit others (not me) did much more of it than the rest, and are living it.

    And we clearly state what we think and our predictions, and if we’re wrong, big fucking deal. I was wrong. Won’t be the first time I’m wrong. Hell. I’m married 28 years, and it seems I’m wrong a few dozen times every day.

    I think being right matters more to Quico than many others, for WHATEVER reason, positive or negative. There’s a hell of a lot at stake.

    But it’s difficult to read his content at times. The expression is:

    “Shit…or get off the pot.”

    • What matters to me is that we make claims backed by actual evidence.

      I have no idea when this became a radically new concept.

      • Quico, it’s most certainly noble of you to avoid making a claim before it can be backed by actual evidence. I have no problem with the concept and try to avoid sticking my foot in my mouth too, though I often fail.

        Where I’ve really taken exception to your style is the content of many of the articles approved or written by you in the lead up to the farce that was held this past Sunday.

        As others have pointed out here, with an economy in free-fall, prices doubling monthly, citizens searching for something to eat in the garbage or slaughtering pets such as dogs and horses for protein, do you really think the regime could have won 17 or 18 governorships? Really?

        I think you do believe that because most of the election-related articles you approved since the 30 July fraud spoke glowingly of the “competition” between the two sides, whose candidates knew how to work the crowds and whose didn’t, and who produced the best campaign ads. It was as though you and your staff were writing about a campaign taking place in Switzerland and it infuriates the hell out of me to think of lesser-informed readers falling into the trap that there must be some measure of fairness in the process because of the articles you publish. There is no fairness! It’s a sham and should be proclaimed as such by every voice possible and especially by voices as influential as yours.

        To do otherwise does a disservice to those who live and suffer here.

        • mrubio, did 10 million+ people note participate in the vote? did candidates not work the crowds, did they not run campaign ads? whatever the extent of the fraud, regional elections did take place. the opposition participated, and millions of Venezuelans went to the polls. look at the rough numbers. you cannot wave your hands and say the elections weren’t competitive, expecting the others to agree with you.

          • We’ll never know how many people actually participated in the election, will we?

            And yes, I can say the races weren’t competitive because to believe they were competitive (as in one candidate barely beating the other), one would have to believe that the final tallies were accurate. I don’t.

            If you believe the final tallies were accurate, good for you. That makes you part of the problem.

      • That’s pretty much what I wrote above.

        But you gotta face it:

        Your analysis and significance of any evidence seems to change hourly, and vastly differs…in the end, where it matters…to most of us here. And you never commit yourself to a position. Ever. You always leave both doors open for yourself.

        You should go into politics.

      • Quico that is fine, but what more evidence do the opposition needs.
        At this point there is an international consensus about the true criminal character of the regime since the blockade of the recall referendum more than a year ago.
        Keeping this charade going is costing lives and misery while the marxist dictatorship consolidates even further.

        • ^this

          Besides, where was your evidence when you claimed chavismo won without fraud?

          Sometimes waiting a couple days for things to surface can be a better reporting practice

      • Mr. Francisco Toro, with all due respect, can you answer this:

        Is it possible or not, based on evidence, to vote for another person, living or dead?*

        If it’s possible to vote for a person, is it possible to vote for a 100 or 100,000? If not, why? what’s the difference?

        Is is possible that a government merges its interest with a single party (psuv)?

        Is it possible that a government merges its interest with the fanb? Did you witnessed that during four months of protests? If so, is it the fanb members=plan república members?

        Is it possible that cne merges its interests with the government? Was not this cne the same one that announced more than 8 M votes just three months ago? Were those VOTES=VOTERS? Did they lie to you once? Could they lie twice?

        Is it possible that psuv-govt becomes cne-psuv-fanb?

        Is it possible that inside the country are thousands cubans working alongside the government?

        Is it possible to give them a cédula o carné de la patria?

        Is it possible that they could be registered in the cne?

        Is possible that using a privileged ID (medical, cne, sebin or whatever) a person could vote without waiting in lines?

        Is it possible that cne-psuv-fanb know who left the country? who passed away? who didn’t vote in 2015? who receives claps? who are in mision viviendo, others?

        Is possible, if the cne, fanb, psuv, cubans all of them merged in one interest, to hire a person to vote in specific mesa ten times for ten of their former supporters (still receiving claps and other misiones? If so, is it possible to repeat the same operation in the centers with only one “mesa” or in the middle of a slum? How many times is possible to do that? Remember you only need 45 seconds to emit a vote!

        Was the cne-psuv-fanb scared about the amount of international pressure that was summoning up just before the 15-oct? Are the cne-psuv-fanb willing to use everything possible to keep power, as was seen during four months?

        Please, I would like to hear about your opinion Mr. Toro with some answers here. I really appreciate it. And the reason I need it, it’s because I think you are misleading an important audience buying the whole story of a recurrent liar.

        *http://www.eluniversal.com/nacional-y-politica/130602/fallecidos-votaron-en-2010-y-2012

  15. Luzardo, great idea, but first you need a free & independant press. Seriously, is there a parallel universe out there I’ve missed? I swear, it’s like awakening in 2001 or something.

  16. Big Deal, you have “proof” that fraud occurred. If this is such a “big deal”, a “game Changer” the CNE will simply reverse the results, with the excuse that those 11 machines were unable to transmit the data, and there was human error in tallying the numbers to headquarters.

    What you are left with, is 1 more governor (BFD as we say here in the land of fruits and nuts – California).

    and your fraud claim is shut down. Your $100 is returned, and the search for your elusive unicorn continues.

    and what is up with the phrase “Game Changer”

    As I understand it, it means the Game is Changed (duh), even with this “Proven fraud” – ahem, human error, what game changed?

  17. If people want a preview of the 2019 presidential elections under an opposition abstention, and how that might go, watch Kenya. Right now.

  18. What us gringos have learned over the years is that if the votes are not close, they can’t cheat.

    But this only holds true to where votes can actually be counted. So the abstention by some but not others only means that cheating becomes that much easier.

    This was a case of (almost literally) putting one foot in the grave. MUD has screwed up so bad since last September if 2016, I would be surprised if Maduro and team DIDN’T take advantage of the stupidity and run the tables.

    Which is what they did… And now the deck is stacked so far against the opposition, there is no longer a way forward.

    Either an armed violent revolt or wait in line for your next CLAP bag. You either want freedom or you don’t. It will no longer get better by entering the voting booth.

    • Chavismo (PSUV) would always find a way to stay in power, peacefully or not. They are a subversive Cuban-Marxist communist party, this is not a secret it is written in their official party books. Playing within the constitutional democratic framework with them is beyond naive and you are deem to lose every time. The solution would never be peaceful as long as they keep committed to their communist nonsense.
      The opposition parties (MUD) are on denial because the real solution is a very painful armed struggle.

  19. Just found these notes I took on 1 August as HRA was interviewed by Vladimir and called off the street protests in favor of participating in the regionals.

    1) don’t give regime propaganda edge that opp won’t participate because they don’t have the votes

    2) with opp reps at election centers they can confirm results – no reps, no confirmation

    3) don’t participate and regime hand-selects the governors

    4) force regime to either participate or cancel election

    5) force regime to either accept the machines or now claim they’re not reliable

    6) opp is positive there will be landslide victories for their candidates who can then screw up plans regime has for stealing presidential election

    Interesting, no?

    Hey Henry, how’d that work out for ya, fuck face?

    • hahahahaha

      Fuck HRA. The most oportunistic politician in the MUD.Where is CC’s criticism of him following the election?

      Oh wait, I forget they’re buddies.

      Classic oppo, don’t stand up for your beliefs in a platform or a model to change the country. Instead, just be real tight with whomever you have the closest links to. That way, when they win the presidency, you’ll get to participate in the glory.

      Con esta vision cortoplacista nunca resolveremos nuestros problemas, hasta si nos libramos de Maduro

  20. *Enters stage very happy and rubbing hands*

    “After all, the opposition did walk off with five governorships!”
    *stagehand gives MUD’s last press release*
    “After all, the opposition did walk off with four governorships!”
    *stagehand gives MUD’s last press release*
    “After all, the opposition did walk off with three governorships!”
    *stagehand gives MUD’s last press release*
    “After all, the opposition did walk off with two governorships!”
    *stagehand gives MUD’s last press release*
    “After all, the opposition did walk off with one fucking governorship! Oh, my fucking God!”
    *stagehand gives MUD’s last press release*
    “After all, oh, well, oh my God, holy shit!!!”

    *Looks to the sides as if trying to find the exits, puts hands in pockets, runs like hell backstage!*

    *Audience burts laughing*

    Hey, Luis Chataing, don’t lose that joke!!! Please, let’s lose friends, but just not that joke!!! Too good.

  21. Wow a Marxist Dictatorship that cheats in “democratic” elections !!

    The PSUV has always been committed from the start to COMMUNISM Cuban style, it is officially stated in their books. They openly advocate for the destruction of the democratic institutions and will do so peacefully or not.

  22. This should the beginning of a detailed quest for more discrepancies and weird or directly impossible results. Just to list a few ones:

    -Registered votes. Between 2008 and 2012 the census increased between 11-20% in each state. Between 2012 and 2017 it increased between 2-7% (except for Amazonas, where it went up by 11%). 20 states are between 2-5%, 12 states between 4-5%. Are such uniform changes statistically likely?

    -Null votes. I haven’t seen this reported anywhere. Null votes were 373.756 in the 2008 regionals, 318.807 in the 2012 regionals, 287.550 in the 2012 presidentials, then they went down to 66.937 in the 2013 presidentials but skyrocketed to 686.119 in the 2015 AN elections. And, for these 207 regional elections… they have all but disappeared again! Per my spreadsheet, there were just 16.724 null votes on Sunday. WTF is going on? Just comparing with the previous two regional elections, null votes have decreased by 95%.

    -Weird patterns. For all the talk about abstention, MUD vote increased relative to 2012 virtually everywhere… except for Lara and Miranda. In those places, PSUV increased their vote from 300.074 to 471.164 and from 538.549 to 641.735. Yet, in Táchira and Zulia, PSUV went down from 248.788 to 181.605 and from 759.214 to 646.617. I find the direction of these changes extremely confusing. Then, in Táchira you get a lot more votes going to the opposition, but in Zulia the number of oppo votes barely changes: in fact the oppo got far more votes in Zulia in the 2008 win.

    -Turnout. In 2012 turnout was quite diverse among states: between 41% and 63% (68% in Amazonas). This time around, turnout was between 55% and 70% everywhere, with 16 states falling between 60% and 65%.

    Abstention was supposed to favour the government; yet, Zulia registered the lowest turnout (55%, a 7 point decrease on 2012, against an overall increase of 8% for the country) and it changed hands from the government to the opposition.

    After reading a comment on the “explaining the non-fraud fraud” post, I had a quick look for discrepancies at Miranda. Remember the state was almost tied between Chávez and Capriles in October 2012, then Capriles beat Jaua by 4 points in December 2012, and now somehow PSUV wins by 7 points.

    In six Miranda municipalities, PSUV got more votes than Chávez got in the 2012 election: Buroz, Acevedo, Andrés Bello, Brion, Páez, Pedro Gual. Of course, he won all of them. For this election, the reported turnout in these places ranges between 67.76 and 70.58%, against a total for Miranda of 58.6%.

    So, it looks like bigger turnout actually helps the government. You will say: “yes, because in those places were turnout was higher is also where chavismo has historically been stronger, so there would be a “differential abstention”: chavista voters tend to abstain less than opposition voters”.

    Then, we should see this pattern to also hold where the opposition is stronger. Well, Ocariz won seven municipalities: Baruta, Carrizal, Chacao, El Hatillo, Guaicaipuro, Los Salias and Sucre. Turnout there was 60% or less, in some places just in the low 40s. All of those municipalities (except Guaicaipuro) were already won by Capriles in the 2012 election. Well, in those municipalities the government candidate got between 24% (Sucre) and 46% (Chacao) LESS VOTES than Chávez did in 2012.

    It looks like abstention affected both sides in strong opposition centers…

    • It looks…

      -The abstention should’ve helped the psuv, this was the prediction every single analysts made.
      -If the opposition keeps the ACTAS there is no fraud, this was the second prediction everybody made.

      This assumptions were based on what happened in the country from 2000-2015. In that span psuv could manage to win and basically never put the real power (miraflores) at stake. Every time the gap was reduced new tricks have been put in place. In 2007-2008 psuv noticed that things were fifty-fifty. Therefore psuv introduced the gerrymandering to win the AN in 2010, modifing the circuits to get more diputados with less votes (4 diputado en Delta Amacuro with 40k votes, meanwhile in la Gran Caracas 250k votes = 1 diputado).

      In 2010 psuv only got 48%, they invented “misión vivienda”. Consequently, the cne created new poll stations inside buildings of “mision vivienda” where Ch got in 2012, in some of those stations, 100% of the votes and in some of them 100% of the registered voters voted!!! In this election 2017, some centers had more than 80% of votes, and some of them psuv got till 99% of votes (check out Municipio Buroz in Miranda the centers: “Agua de Dios”, Belen la Vega”, “los Hernández”, “Nacional sin número”, “los arenales”, “Valle de Manantial” among others).

      But opposition kept its pace and more people were voting against the psuv-government. They managed to tie the election in 2013.

      Finally in 2015 despite all the tricks psuv lost, and learnt that losing the AN put in trouble the stability. The psuv was shrinking proportional to the economy. That’s the reason they avoided the Revocatorio and the regionales. And when I say they, it’s because by now should be clear that cne is part of psuv.

      In 2017, things got worse for psuv. All polls showed that at least 75% of the country wants psuv out of power. The international pressure was increasing and increasing. After the ANC fraud things were worse for psuv. So psuv-cne needed a way out (and for them is live or die).

      Basically, they created more tricks in 2017: no “tinta indeleble”, now it’s possible to vote with “carné de la patria”, and the fanb was allin with all of these.

      It is known that is possible to vote for another people (I have posted the link of the article from Eugenio Martínez in El Universal, and I will posted again at the end of this comment).

      So the fraud this time was simple: They know they lost the people (it’s shown in all the polls, the same that indicated that Chávez was the winner in every election he won, it’s shown in all the “manifestaciones” even in the slums, and remember that when Ch, he used to fill the Av. Bolívar, nowadays psuv doesn’t fill a single block, and it was shown in the election of 2015), because they lost the people and they needed votes, well simple, they stuffed the ballots with votes! So it’s NOT in the ACTAS, it’s in the VOTES!

      It’s not about magic, they did it because they could and they needed it. What they did was to inject the votes in those centers were people used to be “chavistas” they still belong to a mision or clap or for any reason have a carné de la patria and they know that they didn’t vote in 2015, so if they didn’t vote in 2015 what are the odds they voted in 2017? Indeed some of them but a very few of them could arrive in the middle of a slum surrounded by fanb-colectivos and find that somebody voted for him, and then what?

      http://www.eluniversal.com/nacional-y-politica/130602/fallecidos-votaron-en-2010-y-2012

  23. People vote their self interest. Chief among those interests are financial and personal safety. I have read here time and again from all sides that people are starving and there is no personal safety. I am assuming that those are facts and that we dont have to prove them. Now, unless someone comes forward to say that the lack of food and personal safety, not to mention, the inflation, are exaggerations, I am left with the conclusion that something quite unique just happened in Venezuela. A majority, quite contrary to the pre election polling results, voted against their own self interest. They voted for the party in power and against the opposition even though the party in power exclusively controls the country politically and financially and has done so for a long time. Without evidence and relying on logic, the list of choices to explain the election results begins with fraud. But we are told there was no pervasive fraud, just some cheating in close contests. I reject the notion that the voters were stupid because hunger invokes a primal sense of self interest, self preservation. and people dont vote for their own demise.So I am left with the conclusion that a large majority of Venezuelans put aside their self interest and chose the Chavistas because of ideology. But, I have been told that there isnt much political difftentiation between Chavistas and MUD, thst the country is predominantly socialist and the distinction between those two groups is that one is dictatorial and the other democratic. So I end up with a very strange conclusion. A majority in the last election prefer a socialist dictatorship as oppised to democratic socialism even though the former has led to what I am led to believe is a living hell. Where have I gone wrong?

    • Nicely said William, straight to the point, unfortunately people at CC will say to you that Tibisay did say otherwise so you my friend are the only one wrong because Maduro is more popular than Ch, because now in a regional election where 1 million people were relocated 72h before the election and some poll stations opened ten hours later, some machines didn’t work, people don’t have money for food and transport is very scarce nowadays, and millions have left the country, miraculously because the TIBISAY said so, the participation was record!!!

      It’s really incredible that William can see what most of the “analysts” from CC cannot see. SAD.

      P.S. Keep waiting for the ACTAS!!! ha ha ha!

  24. I am in the US. I am doing everything that I can think of or have the means to accomplish, to ease the suffering of the people of Venezuela. I am dumbfounded that the people that are suffering so cruel an existence, have not opposed the regime be any means possible.
    A political solution is always favorable to an armed overthrow of a government. The recent history of US intervention, with the exceptions of Grenada and Panama have shown that removing a regime brings unexpected results that many times create worse problems than the regime that was removed.
    Venezuela has passed the point of a political solution. It is possible that the MUD leaders fear that their own political influence will evaporate as new leaders emerge in a revolt against the Maduro regime. Their desire to remain viable plays into the regime’s hands.
    Venezuela has reached the deterioration that is feared and hopefully avoided in the aftermath of regime change. The collapse of infrastructure, collapse of the economy and rampant crime that are normal results of unstable governments are the policies of the Maduro regime. Using access to food as a weapon is how the Somali warlords control territory. The lack of access to healthcare is a ticking time bomb that will allow otherwise treatable illnesses to reach epidemic proportions and cause more suffering and death.
    The increasing refugee crisis burdens Venezuela’s neighbors and risks destabilizing the surrounding countries.
    It will be much easier for the people of Venezuela to obtain international assistance to remove this regime if the opposition is involved in an armed struggle.
    As things now stand, the people of Venezuela wait and hope for someone to do something, rather than being the someones that doing something. Countries throughout the world have condemned the Maduro regime. President Trump has taken many steps to weaken the government and has encouraged cooperation from countries throughout the world. Armed resistance and removal of this regime appears to be the only viable solution to restoring freedom and ending the suffering in Venezuela.
    Politically, it is much easier to support grassroots resistance than to invade another country.
    Russia and China are only supporting Maduro in the hopes of recovering debts that are owed. Russia does not have the resources to challenge US influence in any substantial way. The geographic location of Venezuela rules out any substantial military assistance in the event of an armed struggle.
    I do not know if there are any men in Venezuela that love their family, cherish freedom and have the courage to take the risks that removing this regime will require.
    Rising to the challenge and fighting for your country will allow the US and other countries to be supporters of democracy, rather than invaders and occupiers of a sovereign nation.
    To not act and hope for someone else to do your bidding is no longer an option. The crime, lack of food and medicine and deteriorating infrastructure will eventually result in more civilian deaths than an organized armed resistance will cause.
    The people of Venezuela have the empathy and support of most of the world. It is up to the men of Venezuela to rise up and capitalize on this support before this window of opportunity closes and Venezuela becomes another Cuba.

  25. Well I do not live in Venezuela but I have been an avid follower of the political ups and downs since the closing of RCTV. It feels like a long time. And honestly, for the first time in all those years I finally gave up on the granular day by day updates. “To abstain or not to abstain,” and who is on an egotistical power grab at the expense of the nation, and who is just literally making a deal with the Devil. All of these endless gradations of depressing alternatives. Nevertheless, when the famous wait for Lucena the octopus (?) finally came online, of course I had to watch. When I realized that the MUD victories could be counted on one hand, I thought “of course, this has to be fraud.” The MUD is going to have clear evidence of tempering. At a minimum there will be a clear set of facts and the headlines will be unanimous. But hours and days passed and it was just a mishmash of responses. The dictatorship had managed to dissipate the damage enough that the opposition literally fractured into a hundred pieces. When I finally saw the statement from Capriles saying that his strategy of 18 years had finally been proven to be wrong, I knew this was something quite stunning in its reach. It’s not that the last two years since winning the AN were not poignant enough in the lessons of futility. That was a stunning victory with zero effects. But this is so much more mournful. I’m sorry if this proof of tampering with the tally just doesn’t seem to be enough. What the hell is the end game now? 120 dead just in this year on the streets. 400 political prisoners. Nearly a million people on the streets of Caracas on multiple occasions with not one march on Miraflores. WTF??

  26. FT waffles–restores previous comment section to his mea culpa fraud admission, deleting the Emi by-lined comment section, because, while it’s tough on him, it’s still less-tough than the Emi by-lined one.

  27. I just dont get it, SMARTMATIC, wasnt that a cause celeb with regard to evidence of government voting fraud? a bi-directional voting system on a state run(CANTV) network.
    I know that was the election last year but jesus the nos quoted were huge.
    Toro doesnt want evidence at all as it was all ready there.
    Plus he doesnt want his deep state socialists at the WP to disown him.

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