Photo: Nueva Sociedad

Quico recently argued that we should abandon our dreams of a dignified transition and embrace Henri Falcón’s pragmatic-consequentialist approach, and he’s partially right: peaceful transitions to democracy suck balls. They are wretched, morally ambiguous affairs that leave open wounds haunting countries for decades. In spite of this, a fraught transition is our best-case scenario and, despite Quico’s pleadings, it’s also the least likely.

We live under an authoritarian regime. Maduro’s government is a deeply unpopular dictatorship that remains in power through a blackmail-for-food scheme, a paranoid control over the Armed Forces and the destruction of all democratic institutions, Hugo Chávez’ sole legacy. Their incentives for giving up power are null. It’ll be suicidal and stupid for them at this point to allow for a transition.

Our only hope is a crack in their grip of power caused by Maduro’s ruinous mismanagement. The thing is that the very same people inside the government that may force a transition are themselves severely compromised; most are involved in serious crimes ranging from run-of-the-mill corruption, to drug-trafficking and crimes against humanity. In order to get them to defect, you need to make trade-offs that involve very unsavory bargains, as Quico rightly points out: letting killers off the hook, allowing looters to enjoy stolen money and securing a quota of power to people like Miguel Rodríguez Torres. It’s revolting. It’s also our best shot at stopping people from dying of hunger and lack of medicine.

Most folks who really hope for a solution to our catastrophe must grow up and come to terms with the fact that any negotiated outcome will be morally conflicted and underwhelming; we’ll have to supress our gag reflex with the hope of recovering our country from the sociopaths holding it hostage. Our fantasies of retributive justice won’t become true.

Their incentives for giving up power are null. It’ll be suicidal and stupid for them at this point to allow for a transition.

But that’s where my agreement with Quico ends.

Henri Falcón doesn’t have the power or credibility to negotiate what eventual defectors would request in Quico’s hypothetical scenario. He doesn’t have any direct line of communications with Donald Trump to assuage the valid concerns in the top military brass of prosecution in the U.S. for drug trafficking charges. He cannot promise to lift the individual sanctions imposed by the U.S., Canada and the EU that made impossible for them to enjoy their stolen money. These guys know this. We need a better reason to believe that they’ll let him win because they like him better that some catire from Voluntad Popular.

Quico is right, political action should be driven by consequentialism. If there was a chance that a transition could be negotiated after May, it would be suicidal not to participate. I know the marines fantasy won’t happen, but the international community is ratcheting up the sanctions front — even freaking Switzerland is joining the bandwagon. PDVSA production is at the brink of collapsing. There will be a point when the government literally won’t be able to extract a single dollar from public funds and will be completely shut out from the international community. At this point defections become more likely and the prospects of transition become real.

But the success of this strategy is contingent to boycotting the elections; running in rigged elections will have the “consequence” of easing international pressure, legitimizing the government and, ironically, lowering the incentives for defection among chavismo honchos.

I don’t have a neat answer to “¿y tú qué propones?”, but naive wishful-thinking is not a substitute for strategy — and caerse a mojones about the true nature of chavismo will yield the same “good results” it did in the past.

And what is the Frente Amplio doing, anyway?

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41 COMMENTS


  1. Henri Falcón doesn’t have the power or credibility to negotiate what eventual defectors would request in Quico’s hypothetical scenario. He doesn’t have any direct line of communications with Donald Trump to assuage the valid concerns in the top military brass of prosecution in the U.S. for drug trafficking charges. He cannot promise to lift the individual sanctions imposed by the U.S., Canada and the EU that made impossible for them to enjoy their stolen money. These guys know this. We need a better reason to believe that they’ll let him win because they like him better that some catire from Voluntad Popular.”

    Talk about a shallow paragraph. This is the best strategic and tactical thinking you are capable of?

    Or is this just one big appology for abstentionism: “I know it achieves nothing, but at least niw I can feel good about that?”

    Up your game man.

  2. “… letting killers off the hook, allowing looters to enjoy stolen money and securing a quota of power to people like Miguel Rodríguez Torres…”

    That’s what they did in Nicaragua with Chamorro, and look how it ended.

    That’s what happened in Venezuela during the 60s, and look how it ended.

    “…I know the marines fantasy won’t happen…”

    Again, you let yourself to be tangled into the chavista lies and fearmongering, no one’s asking for “marines in Maracay”

    “And what is the Frente Amplio doing, anyway?”

    Trying to secure a way to put a piece of scum like rodríguez torres, among all the other “disgruntled chavistas” such as “king of the fried bullshit” giordani and luisa ortega in power.

    • I disagree with the likelihood of a military scenario where the Marines intervene. However….

      If a civil war erupts and it turns into a humanitarian shitstorm of epic magnitude, I see THE POSSIBILITY of an intervention by the US. It is ONLY THEN that the FANB will fold like a cheap suit, and the corrupt Cuban led Chavista hierarchy will bail out. I expect most of the crooks will flee. The result MUST BE that Venezuela becomes Costa Rica.. no more military.

      EVERY SINGLE MILITARY PERSON is released from duty and is offered a one time severance (no pension… take it or leave it) paid for by oil sales. There must be NO OPTION for even a small military. Every military base closed and turn into parkland. Every parade ground becomes football (soccer) or baseball fields.

      There is a lot of thing that also need to happen, including the professionalization of the police and national guard.

      Important: Someone (plural) needs to hang. There needs to be an example, so that this Marxist/Leninist BS isn’t likely to happen again. You cannot let the Perez-like shit go unpunished. Extreme prejudice. No remorse. No “symbolic” trials. (You can bet your ass that what happened in Iraq and Libya isn’t lost on Assad in Syria. He knows the score and he knows whats waiting. This needs to happen in Venezuela. Are you reading this, Evo and Danny?)

      • Amen to getting rid of the military in Venezuela, both GNB and FANB!!! also the PNB and while we are at it: SEBIN. Fuera!!!!

        If there is any IMF money for infrastructure projects, hire those willing to work on civil engineering projects.

        But we need an entirely NEW security apparatus: a national and local police forces that ARE NOT POLITICAL. I would rather train 18 year old new recruits than continue with the band of malandros we have now.

        Furthermore, you will need to train special forces (Oscar Perez’s crew) to go after the colectivos, who will be nothing more than armed urban guerrillas once this shit falls.

        Of course, many GNB, FANB, PNB and SEBIN will continue their lives of crime and corruption. But at least we would have a dossier on them already.

      • I’d like to add this about what I wrote about “extreme prejudice”. I meant it.

        I’ve been all over the world, and there are a lot of cultures where there is a lot of crazy shit (to first world persons) that passes off as the norm. Walk into half the countries in Latin America, and you see the dictator du jour’s face plastered all over every flat surface. Chavez… my God, you can’t take a shit in Maiquetía airport without El Finado smiling back at you, urging you on! ¡Victoria! ¡Ahora, límpialo!

        http://www.vancouversunpodcasts.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/Chavez-and-Maduro-the-fight-continues-in-Argentina.jpg

        It is cultural. It was a HUGE deal for the Norwegians to make Quisling pay the ultimate price. They still piss and moan about it, as Norwegians are perpetually tormented with guilt. That is THEIR culture. (They piss and moan about everything, especially the goings on outside of Norway) The Norwegians aren’t the type to appreciate WHY hanging a despot is needed. But in the Middle East, Africa and in Latin America, extreme prejudice is the only thing that despots understand.

        When the next generation of Chavistas see pictures of Diosdado and Maduro and Vlad with nooses around their necks (shouting slogans to the last, to be sure!) is when you can be sure that they will think better of it the next time they want to usurp a Constitution.

        I would love to see a non-violent solution to Venezuelas problems. But the Chavistas won’t have it, they won’t walk away. Anyone who thinks they will is (IMO) delusional. Unless freedom loving Venezuelans are ready to kill and be killed, Venezuela is going to sink into the abyss. Know that the Chavistas are perfectly happy to be King of the Ashes, just like the Castros. They might be emperors of the cesspool, but its THEIR CESSPOOL.

        If you let these frauds off the hook, they will come back for round 2. You can bet the farm on that. Cut the head off the snake. Then cut up the snake (FANB, GNB, PNB, SEBIN). If you want peace, that’s what you are going to have to do.

    • “… letting killers off the hook, allowing looters to enjoy stolen money and securing a quota of power to people like Miguel Rodríguez Torres…”

      That’s what happened in Venezuela during the 60s, and look how it ended.

      Not quite. Marcos Pérez Jiménez was extradited from the United States on charges of embezzling $200 million- which would be around $1.7-$2 billion today. He was convicted, and released after having been jailed for 5 years before the trial. Should he have been jailed for 20 year? For life?

      Your point about the Sandinistas is well-taken. The piñata, they called it at the time.

      • I was referring to the “complete impunity pact” aka “the pacification” that Caldera’s first gubmint gave to the castro-communist, traitors to Venezuela terrorists that had luminaire such as Alí Rodríguez Araque (aka the man who exploded several of PDVSA’s oilducts), Osvaldo Russián (cop murderer who had the slogan “one day, one cop”) and MANY others who used their chance to evade the 30-year terms they deserved to be caged to continue their treason against the homeland to bring the cuban invaders to Venezuela.

        The sandinista piñata is what chavistas understand as the only option to remain in complete power.

        • Thanks for the explanation.
          Along the same vein, the 1992 coupster, at the very least, should never have been let out of jail. Consider the “mercy” shown to failed coupsters such as Hitler ( Beer Hall Putsch) Castro in 1953, and Chavez in 1992. All three later assumed power, with disastrous consequences. Better they had all been executed.

          • Well said! A lot of those in power right now need to be executed. Leave them alive and they will come back for another round of tragedy.

      • “Marcos Pérez Jiménez was extradited from the United States on charges of embezzling $200 million- which would be around $1.7-$2 billion today. He was convicted, and released after having been jailed for 5 years before the trial. Should he have been jailed for 20 year? For life?”

        Ask the “Poet” (and I use that term extremely loosely) that lurks around here gushing inanely about MPJ.

        Likely he’ll tell us you made that up.

  3. “…a fraught transition is our best-case scenario and, despite Quico’s pleadings, it’s also the least likely.”

    An analogy

    “Would you like to be kicked in the balls every day for the next 20 years, Sir? Or shall we just douse your nutsack with gasoline, burn them with a tiki-torch, and then twist off your balls with a rusty Vice-Grip and have it done with?”

    Neither is appealing. But, short term pain is a Hell of a lot better than a chronic malady that you get to look forward to every day for years on end.

    I don’t see an easy transition, either with Falcon or without. This “election” is all theater, as the Chavistas and PSUV won’t let go of their power either way. Delcy made that perfectly clear. If (miracle of miracles) Falcon wins, I don’t expect he will survive until he is sworn in. At which point, the Chavistas in the military will swoop in and name a figurehead. (Take your pick, but it won’t be Maduro)

    This only ends in violence, as it is the only thing the Chavistas will understand.

    I’m a cynic. I see every day what power and authority do to people… even people who have the best of intentions. Political power is like a crack cocaine. It doesn’t matter how much money they have stolen and stashed away. Money can’t give them what they crave.

    Excellent piece, César

    • “I don’t see an easy transition…”

      The illusion of an “easy and painless transition” is the carrot that chavismo and its collaborators have wagged in front of venezuelan people during the last 20 years to ensure the survival of the regime.

      The best proof of that lies on how Capriles stabbed the country in the back by handing over the presidency TWICE, using as an excuse that he was “avoiding a civil war that would have left thousands of dead in the streets” and quickly accussing anyone who dares to ever mention that there are thousands of dead from 2012 to this day of being a “chavista tarifado empantuflado radical who wants millions of dead”

      • “how Capriles stabbed the country in the back by handing over the presidency TWICE”

        As well as capriles, hra and rosales and falcon and others. Yet they remain relevant in the conversation. Why? Answer that question and you might have a start on a real opposition.

        Capitulating as quico suggests (recommends?) just plays into the hand of the dictatorship. I attended a “debate” about 3 years ago where collete capriles (google) espoused laying down and accepting maduro’s dictatorship and try to make changes from inside. Reminded me of a politician saying that when a someone is being raped they should just lay back and enjoy it. Now quico is on her “side”?

        I’ll start listening to quico again when he is back in Venezuela actually doing something, saying something productive, rather than sitting on a stage or blog casting, cashing in on the disaster. Or he at least calls out those who have\are betraying the country at the cost of so many lives, and more to come. Or at least become transparent as any respectful blog or newspaper reporting circulation, readership, revenue, etc. Or step down and let someone else lead.

        For you newcomers, CC did this in the past before becoming a pay to read blog. Oh, and if you pay extra you get the “real scoop”.

        Note, you can pay with bitcoin or card at bottom of the page. Thank you for your contributions. Sadly, regardlessly the beatings will continue..

        • Btw, maybe speaking out of line, but think safe to write that we all love Naky and many of the writers. Thankful for the information but sick of the “sad stories“. Anyone reading this blog knows the collapse and how it affects family and friends. Thanksful that this blog brings people such as John and MRubio into contact to make a differnece.

          My beef is with quico refusing to call out corruption, specifically within the mud, which brings CC revenue and his reputation into question. You want to quit quico, then do it and let others lead.

          • Hey Gringo2

            Let me ask you a something:

            1) How do you think Quico and Raul and Emi and the rest of the team earn their livings? It seems to me that they surely must have day jobs ( I hope!), at least some of them, and they blog as well. I’m pretty sure that for some of the writers it may just be the only paying job they have. Now as far as “paying” for the “scoops” goes, well they are the ones that developed the info, made the contacts, kept the sources as private as they could and so on. Perhaps they have expenses managing their sources. So, in an age when information is monetizable, why shouldn’t they if they can? Or is it your contention that they should “socialize” the information, but be capitalistic about the rest of their lives?

            2) I’ve been reading this blog since, oh I dunno, 2005-2006? And while they certainly have had, have and will have plenty of information regarding the what’s what in political & economic Venezuela I frankly do not recall one article they have written that is a smoking gun piece. That is usable in a court of law. I may be wrong, but frankly there are other sources easily accesible that name names, cooperate with the relevant authorities, etc. Not to dis CC, but I don’t see CC as some kind of storehouse of evil deeds. I guess what I’m trying to say is that it is hard for me to imagine CC is somehow keeping potential “info nukes” on ice, until someone pays. I trust them in that if there is an “info nuke”, we will see it in these pages.

            3) It’s been so long now that this narco regime has been around that I really don’t need to continue to know if they are crooked, or corrupt, or massive violators of human rights. That’s what this regime is, and that will not change. So I do not subscribe to the “paid” version because, frankly, it usually means an advantage of 48 hours or so before the “info” is loose on the web. In my humble line of work, the food business in the US, I have no burning need to know how crooked HRA is today. OR who bankrolls him and some other oppo figures. Enough for me that I know they are, and eventually it will come out anyways. Plus, you would have to BAN most of the people from ESpaña, COño. There. There’s a freebie for you.

            End of the day, my stance is that if CC is able to monetize their product, then kudos to them. I may not be a consumer of the $$ product, but I am not going to kvetch about them charging for it. Quico started this blog in 2002 (or so). Other than having Juan Nagel (aka Katy) for a while as co-editor (or “pasante sub-pagado”, LOL), it’s been pretty much a solo effort until recently. So, if he can turn the years of effort, effort with zero pay and done because HE FUCKING LOVES HIS COUNTRY GODDAMIT, into money then good for him.

            Rant over.

        • “Reminded me of a politician saying that when someone is being raped they should just lay back and enjoy it.”

          That was not a politician, that was Bobby Knight, former Indiana University basketball coach and current Trump ass-kisser, defending the “off-the-court-behavior” of some of his players.

    • Yeah, I hear you Ira. This is one of the better articles in a while. Good job Cesar!

      Really, there will be “no knock out punch,” there will be no “pre-arranged fall,” this is going to be “a choke out” and it is going to be slow and painful to watch–even worse to live. The international community has these scum cornered like rats. Russia and China will not bail them out. Cuba has already played all their cards. CastroChavismo has destroyed the entire productive base of a society, PDVSA is in ruins and they have already entered the economic death spiral.

      There are no other solutions other than listen to what the international community is saying: DO NOT VOTE!!! BOYCOTT THIS SHIT. That in itself, is a strategy (because the Chavistas are cornered like rats) and then it is time to switch from a gentle choke hold of looking for a submission to one that is to go for the kill.

  4. “There will be a point when the government literally won’t be able to extract a single dollar from public funds and will be completely shut out from the international community. At this point defections become more likely and the prospects of transition become real.”

    The way I see it is that we have a Chavista military government in place, they run most of the key functions in the country. And they are failing. Moreover, even if they did a radical policy change the situation is so deteriorated that Venezuela alone cannot reverse the trend, IMF and World Bank funding are necessary (Hausmann dixit).

    So the defection will come, probably led by the military as a self preservation move. They will throw Maduro y su combo in jail and turn to the Venezuelan people and claim to have liberated them and restored the wonderful Chavista constitution, etc, etc, and negotiate some putrid immunity to their crimes under the threat of force.

    After they take over they will need to hand over the hot potato that Venezuela is to someone else to govern. The expectations of the populace will be huge an impossible to fulfill, but this is ultimately what politicians have to manage.

    • There are better economists than Ricardo Hausmann in Venezuela. Hausmann is a “government will handle” type, a “liberal” in the American sense of the word, meaning “socialist”. My take is that he’s good at getting into positions of note via the relevant politics, gaining a platform, but I do not like his broadcast leaning. It is possible that he’s compromising to political realities, but how many times have we heard that internationally, much as it is possible to say that Falcon is compromising to political realities?

      In my opinion, Venezuela requires a transition period, with transition compromises, but the direction must be to real economics such as in Chile, and NOT in the direction of continuing compromises. The toughest battles are in the mind, in one’s own mind.

      • Obvious afterthought here, and I hope it isn’t idiotically naive, but the consensus and political reality and confusion are often all “reality falsehoods” in that, and to the extent that, they differ from the correct course of action.

        “In ethics, there’s an old debate between consequentialism (the position that actions are right or wrong depending on the consequences they have) and deontology (actions are right or wrong in themselves).” (From a previous article on that.) I say those are the same thing, the two are inextricably linked. Look at the physical: a dam project must be studied, and the correct principles of physics applied, to get a good result. Political reality compromises such as cheaper but inadequate construction materials do not produce good results.

        The same applies to economics. The “political reality compromise” must be recognized as a transition to what is correct. We are all dependent on the physical to maintain physical form (e.g. humans tend to die if they do not have food). The notion that a political reality can alter the laws of physics – and economics – is a reality falsehood that has been manufactured. Yet people accept the falsehoods, and go with them, and end up with sub-optimal conditions – or disasters.

  5. You and Quico are right–let’s consequentially begin Transition Dialogues with Chavismo, forgiving many for their many sins (such minor inconsequentialities as recent 68 dead/98 wounded in prison/hundreds of young protestors dead-thousands wounded/hundreds of political prisoners tortured/ hundreds of $ billions stolen/68% population in critical poverty/another20% in plain old poverty/destroyed infrastructure/devastated oil production-refining/etc. etc.) with well-meaning JR/DR/ANC, all directed by well-meaning Raul/ Ven.narco-mlitary–I’m sure a long-term politically stable status quo can sensibly be worked out with with these well-meaning sensible adversaries….

    • Exactly. Quico’s previous gem and this article are just repulsive. Forgive, forget, and bring on the MUD.. Heck, save some Congress seats for the FARCs in Miraflores too.

  6. From what I read here, the Chavistas are the only organized group in the country. If this is the case they will continue to rule until some other group can organize the country. In addition , most people clam the Chavistas actually believe in the stuff they preach therefore they are ideologically committed and will never leave willingly. Venezuela needs some sort of consensus on a new leader or leadership hroup. Otherwise this long trip to hell will seem indefinite in duration. Falcon is just another bus stop on the way to hell.

      • MRubio
        Do you have the ability to e-mail me? I could use some guidance about seed varieties if I am going to ship in a few weeks. There is a small package sitting in Miami that was donated by Seeds For Change that will be included also.
        How is Crystal? Please let me know if there is anything I can help her family obtain.
        I’ve tried calling you with no luck.

    • “Chavistas are the only organized group in the country.”

      Because that was EXACTLY the PLAN, to leave the opposition without any leadership that would actually OPPOSE the chavista plague.

      • Except that the ADECO’s were once organized equally as well, at least according to my woman who has followed Venny politics a lot longer than I. As I’ve said before, she often comments that the chavistas have learned, and learned well how to organize their forces and it reminds her of the ADECO’s.

        And further to Mr. Crispin’s observations, I firmly believe that as long as the average Venezuelan believes there really is such a thing as a free lunch, things will not improve significantly in this country.

        Most of my experience here coincides with the rule of the chavistas, so I don’t know how things were before, but we’ve now got at least a full generation of millions of Venezuelans who know nothing other than standing in lines all day for basic goods and waiting for someone to bring them a box of cheap, almost-free food once a month or so.

        I wish it were different, but it’s not.

        • The chavista base was the adeco detritus, along with the bottom of all the other corrupt political parties of the 4th.

          The “average” venezuelan doesn’t believe in “free lunch”, the ones that do are the slackers that support chavismo and are too a bunch of filthy hypocrytes, because they want free stuff from others but want to get paid like CEOs for a minimum-wage half time work.

          How were things before chavismo? For starters, people was allowed to make a living out of their work, which is the greatest difference against chavismo, that has subdued the population not because “they are satisfied with a cheap box of carbs”, but because they have NO OTHER CHOICE, it’s “either the box or fucking starve to death”, chavismo has made a monopoly of effin’ EVERYTHING in Venezuela and forces the population to survive in extreme poverty to keep them under control.

        • I agree with you 100% my friend, I came to Venezuela in 1993 with Chavez and have seen little by little how Chavismo trained the little birds to eat at the feeders until they were dependant and no longer knew how to fend for themselves. Brutal phycological warfare if you ask me. Dirty, very dirty how they taught people to be useless. The fricken military is to blame for everything. Now the only tourist we see here in Morrocoy park are Intelligence officers with trucks way above their pay grade. All enchufados and military. They control everything, how do you cut that cancer out? I asked my cop buddies if they even dare stop guys like that on there way into town. All lit up like that with light bar and winch and sound system and no licence plates. They all look at me and laugh…. “are you crazy?” they ask me, ” I just wave those guys through, no way am I gonna mess with someone who can drive around in something like that.” I don’t even dare drive to the next town with my family, too risky.

  7. This article is rigged with false assumptions, contradictions and flat-out lies. For instance:

    “There will be a point when the government literally won’t be able to extract a single dollar from public funds and will be completely shut out from the international community. At this point defections become more likely and the prospects of transition become real.”

    The Chavistoide professional crooks, career Mega-Thieves won’t be able to steal and spend ‘ a single dollar’? Well, they’ve been doing only for (20) TWENTY years, they’re among the best of the best in the planet at it. It’s just getting at little trickier to launder stolen millions and hide properties, but very much doable! They involve all their family plus friends plus multiple aliases, they go everywhere in the world except the USA, Eastern-Europe or Panama. Why do you think, for example, they’re now opening of an embassy in BakuGuiso, Azerbaijan, and going to Russia for some arms guisos? Why are they playing with the Klepto-Petro and shipping tons of Gold? Do you think THOUSANDS of corrupt Chavistas, Military and otherwise can be traced and followed, plus their friends and their families all over the Planet? Anf if some property here, or a few hundred thousand dollars there are caught and frozen, they have plenty more in multiple remote places elsewhere and will easily steal some more! Get Real.

    “He cannot promise to lift the individual sanctions imposed by the U.S., Canada and the EU that made impossible for them to enjoy their stolen money. ”

    So they won’t be able to travel to any of their Caribbean Paradise Islands, the Leeches they own like Antigua, St Vincent, or to Cuba, or Russia, Australia, Africa, Asia.. They will be forced to go on vacation to spend their millions in little Kleptozuela, Los Roques, Morrocoy, La Gran Sabana, Los Llanos, La Colonia Tovar, Los Andes.. Poor Chavistas!

    Have you seen Gabrielita and countless other Chavez’s family members in the past 10 years? You think they are living in some monastery in Barquisimeto? How about Ramirez and Luisa Ortega, and many, many, many others? In prison now, huh? or enjoying the good life travelling the world, even in public! Just like all the Cuban Mega-Thieves, after 6 decades of stealing, they can’t get out of the island? Except everybody loves Cuba now, and the way things are going, will eventually love Cubazuela too. Again, Get Real.

  8. The thing is that the very same people inside the government that may force a transition are themselves severely compromised; most are involved in serious crimes ranging from run-of-the-mill corruption, to drug-trafficking and crimes against humanity. In order to get them to defect, you need to make trade-offs that involve very unsavory bargains, as Quico rightly points out: letting killers off the hook, allowing looters to enjoy stolen money and securing a quota of power to people like Miguel Rodríguez Torres.
    ——-
    My sense of this is that the author is infected with a germ of Chavismo thinking – re: that whatever the powers that be in Venezuela decide, will dictate the fate not only the fate of the Chavistas but of the nation at large, in terms of the international community. If whoever manages the eventual transition into sanity “decides” to let the thieves and murderers off the hook, this IN NO WAY will be the position of the international community. That is, if the next government says, “We absolve all the Chavistas of all crimes and they can have all the money they looted from the country,” the sanctions in place will still stand. People in Venezuela might not hold the Chavistas accountable but the world will. And the billions borrowed from the world will also have to be paid back if it takes 100 years of garnishing petro earnings.

    Fact is, people within Venzeuela might absolve the Chavistas, but the worst offenders will be virtually stuck there, or will have to flee to Cuba or funky Easter Bloc countries. The notion that at this point, the Chavistas can just walk away to wherever they choose to enjoy their burgled loot, is pure fiction. Never gonna happen.

    • Exactly, FBI, DoJ, Interpol, etc. will never forget. These thigs will be in jail or be your neighbors. You choose.

  9. “transitions to democracy”?!?!

    The next stop on the anacyclosis merry-go-round is mob rule. Good luck breaking the historic cycle. These evil times will get much worse.

  10. “Chilean 11S: division commemorating Augusto Pinochet’s coup against Salvador Allende” (story from “haunting countries” link above)

    Since the demise of Allende, the Marxists haven’t dared pulling another stunt like that in Chile. Coincidence?

    Don’t expect that the opposition is going to get any help for a “coup” from the FANB. They are cut from the same cloth as the Chavistas. I’m just pointing out the end game. The Chavistas won’t learn their lesson unless you deal with them the same way they deal with you.

    • Pinochet saved Chile from Chavismo. “Terrible” as they say he was, he set the Chilean people straight, educated them and put them to work. Now Chile is by far the best country of Latin america, part of the 1st world. By contrast, in Kleptozuela they kicked MPJ out, and got 19 years of Chavismo instead: exact opposite result: worst country by far in LatAm, proud member of the select 5th World of the very worst ‘shitholes’ on the Planet. Clearly, had MPJ stayed for 17 years will all that oil (better than Chile’s copper), to straighten Venezuelans out and educate them, Cubazuela would surely be even better than Chile today.

  11. The sanctions are blamed for our predicaments but to the extent they apply to individuals serving the regime they dont affect the rest of the country , to the extent they apply to financial transactions by govt bodies they can partially affect the paying of loans and the hiring of contractors who usually demand payment in dollars but the sanctions expressly exclude financial transactions which relate to the import of foodstuffs , medical supplies and other similar commodities, so those arent affected !! I think that the sanctions arent such a problem as the regime being broke and inept and corrupt and irresponsible , nobody trusts it , so why lend money or invest money in a country whcih is held ransom to such a regime , Thats the real barrier for any improvement in our current situation …..the state of a country ruined and destroyed by a regime that is as incompetent as abusive in all it those……Dont think the lifting of sanctions against the financial transactions of govt bodies would improve things , because the real problem lies in the kind of regime that rules us ……., the regime fancies that foreign investors will flock to bring in investments and loans because of their offer of the countrys natural wealth but investors also look at the terrible conditions in which they must operate in a country so full of problems and at a govt that cant be trusted from one day to the next and which is utterly incompetent …….!! The sanctions although they do affect in PART the finances of certain govt bodies they are actually mostly a symbol of the condemnation in which the regime is held by the world……!!

  12. Transition like this is bait, there is not peaceful transition possible, any other way except violent overtrown and 180 degree system change (by venezuelan people by themselves) means chavismo wins , any other alternative that doesn´t involve a complete destruction of chavismo means they win and everyting stays the same. Falcon can go fuck himself. I am not voting this time, not anymore. we all knew this was the plan and still we voted so apologists of Mudecos would not whine about abstention. Not anymore.

    Either the right way, or socialismo for 100 years more, time to face it. I don´t have hope for venezuela. Change is not coming and transition is not happening.

  13. It’s time for an ultra right wing dictatorship in Venezuela, round up all lefties and mass muder the bloody lot of them. Every single cunt with a red t-shirt should be shot right where he/she stands. Kill thousands upon thousands upon thousands of them. Then start rebuilding that country.

  14. It’s so clear the boycotting these sham elections is the right thing to do, I really don’t get how experts like Francisco Toro can support a terrible self proclaimed candidate like Falcón.

    In May, Falcón will either lose hard or the ANC will issue a decree installing a “protector de la revolución”.

    To think that a blando like Falcón can lead a transition is as wild as to wait for the Marines.

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