Caracas Chronicles

“We are 4-0 up and the fifth one might be the best yet,” repeats the opposition leader in a triumphant fashion. But, what are those four points exactly? And how exactly is the opposition winning, since Maduro is still in power?

Since late 2023, the opposition led by María Corina Machado has been trying to build a narrative of cumulative achievements: the primaries in October 2023, the presidential election victory on July 28, the international efforts in not recognizing Nicolás Maduro as elected president, and the low turnout in the parliamentary and regional elections of May 2025.

On paper, it looks like a solid record. In Venezuela’s reality, it doesn’t translate into a change in power or a political transition, not even in concrete improvements.

How can the opposition declare itself the winner when it hasn’t recovered the institutions, lacks presence in the territory and displays no capacity to act?

In politics, the score is not a social media following, or the polls, or the volume of popular ire. The game is won by those who hold real power. And the fact is that the field remains under chavista control. Maduro and his allies control all government branches, the armed forces, media and the regions. They became highly efficient in the use of force, in breaking their adversaries’ cohesion, and in subverting institutions. Now, they advance toward holding all the country’s mayoralties.

In this context, what would be a 4-0 where the opposition is actually above? What would be a situation where Machado can show real progress and not only symbolic gestures?

• An ongoing transition

For starters, Venezuelans would be encouraged to see some visible steps towards regime change, instead of just hearing promises of an eventual rupture within the regime. That necessitates the start of a process that erodes chavista control over the institutions, with effective international pressure and clear signs of inner weakness in the chavista alliance.

• Action beyond social media

Second, the anti-Maduro movement not only needs popular social media accounts, but grassroots structures at every state, municipality and community. Multiple voices spreading messages to different demographics, building on the people’s capacity to mobilize and respond to situations with autonomy without the constant intervention of opposition politicians that are constantly harassed, imprisoned and forced into exile.

• Conquering minimal guarantees

The people need way more than memorandums signed by Jorge Rodríguez or promises from chavismo. The Maduro regime must be forced to give way to political conditions through pressure and organization. An audited electoral registry, credible international observation, candidates who are allowed to run, and an election authority that counts and discloses every single vote.

• An elected president based in Venezuela

The elected president cannot be abroad, but rather be present and defend the popular will expressed at the polls. He must be able to lead, build governance and represent the nation from within the territory. 

None of these goals have been completed. On the contrary, the opposition obtained a crucial victory but has been unable to collect the prize. Edmundo González Urrutia was pushed to Spain before taking the oath. The promise of having him in Caracas for the January 10 inauguration was left void, as many others did.

He didn’t come to Venezuela that day, but there was no Plan B. What actually did come was more frustration for a society that has been stockpiling defeats for a quarter of century.

So, why does Machado keep talking about being four nill up if none of her achievements have brought her real power? The opposition lost states, municipalities and institutional presence, while the regime strengthened its control. There are more people imprisoned and in exile, more fear and hunger. And less hope.

Chavismo is doing what it knows best: when in crisis, move the gameboard. It launched another election with no guarantees, it banned more leaders, it suppressed more controls and checks to the electoral system. It’s betting on attrition, demobilization, and fragmentation.

Now, the regime is preparing for a local government election on July 27. Not just any date, but the anniversary of the day when millions voted for a change that has not come.

A leadership with no plan and no clear message is waiting for change to simply happen—when chavismo gives in to exhaustion. In the meantime, they present us with an imaginary scoreboard, when what we need are real results.

While that ‘4-0’ remains a meaningless metaphor, we continue losing the only game that truly matters: the lives of Venezuelans.