Caracas Chronicles

As they read the news this morning, many folks in the United States are registering María Corina Machado’s name for the first time. While most Americans have no idea who she is, that doesn’t mean that her winning the Nobel Peace Prize won’t have consequences for the American public.

These days, U.S. politics is reactionary, and most strategies of Republicans and Democrats alike are made in anticipation of or reaction to President Trump. So far, Bloomberg reports that Trump called Machado, and he also reposted her initial reaction Tweet on Truth Social. Machado confirmed to Spanish broadsheet El País that they had a conversation. Then, on Friday evening, Trump said María Corina told him she was receiving the award in the president’s honor and that he deserved it.

“A very nice thing to do. I didn’t, I didn’t say, ‘Then give it to me,’ though I think she might have. She was very nice,” Trump said. “I’ve been helping her along the way. They need a lot of help in Venezuela, it’s a basic disaster. So, and you could also say it was given out for 2024 and I was running for office in 2024.”

Christopher Landau, the Deputy Secretary of State, congratulated Machado and praised her grace and class by thanking Donald Trump before finishing with a ‘¡Viva Venezuela libre!’ Marco Rubio, Landau’s direct superior hasn’t said a word yet, but did repost Machado’s English-language message after news broke, where she thanked President Trump. Rubio was amongst a number of lawmakers that nominated Machado to the prize in 2024, back when he was still a senator. He is considered Machado’s most ardent supporter in the Trump administration.

“The Nobel Committee proved they place politics over peace,” a White House spokesperson posted as the immediate official reaction.

Obama posted congrats, as well as Democrats in the Foreign Relations Committee. Tony Blinken followed suit, saying it was a privilege to work with the opposition leader during his time as Secretary of State during the Biden administration.

While initial reactions to Machado’s win from prominent Republican and Democrat elected officials have been overwhelmingly positive, whether or not this bipartisan support will lead to action is yet to be seen.

“The Nobel Committee proved they place politics over peace,” wrote Steven Cheung, a Trump aide and the White House’s director of communications, as the immediate official reaction. Trump will “continue making peace deals, ending wars, and saving lives”, he wrote. “He has the heart of a humanitarian, and there will never be anyone like him who can move mountains with the sheer force of his will.”

Trump’s special envoy, Richard Grenell​—who has promoted negotiations with the Nicolás Maduro administration—also voiced dissatisfaction, tweeting: “The Nobel Prize died years ago.​”

Here are two possible scenarios of how things may unfold:

Scenario A

Donald is angry that he didn’t win (this we already know). This anger leads him to withdraw pressure from Maduro. This could include removing U.S. military forces from the Caribbean and moving the “War on Drugs” elsewhere (e.g. Mexico).

Probability: Unlikely. The Caribbean mobilization has been presented as part of a much larger operation related to the War on Drugs.

What would be the Republicans’ move? Republicans could go back to their “no new wars” position and move down the isolationist road, where Venezuela would be no more than a political football. Under this scenario, Marco Rubio would be humiliated, and could even be fired or decide to leave the government to compete for the Florida governorship.

What would be the Democrats’ move? Democrats would have an easy time selling people the idea that the U.S. should not intervene in foreign matters and that Venezuelan problems are all about Venezuela. The Venezuelans in the U.S. would be alienated, but the U.S. electoral math may not be affected much.

Scenario B

Donald is angry that he didn’t win (this we already know). This anger leads him to search for a way to still make this news story all about him “winning” in one way or another. What would be more Trump-like than trying to one-up the Nobel Peace Prize winner? Something along the lines of: You may have won the Peace Prize, but I will be the one who actually gets Maduro to leave. Even María Corina’s own tweet reacting to her win seems to anticipate this line of thinking.

Under this scenario, Trump could use Machado’s win to give legitimacy to and gain support for further interventions in the Caribbean, including perhaps a land-based attack in Venezuela (the idea of which has already been tossed around). 

Probability: Hard to tell. While it’s 99% sure Trump will make this all about him, how he will do so is unpredictable at best.

What would be the Republicans’ move? Under this scenario, Republican hawks would be emboldened. Marco Rubio would gain significant recognition, further motivating him to run for office in 2028. Libertarians like Rand Paul and their allies would be further marginalized, but it’s unlikely to cause much trouble for the GOP.

What would be the Democrats’ move? Democrats may find it difficult to argue against defending a Nobel Peace Prize winner. Therefore, they may play along or try to draw attention away from the issue. The most extreme elements of the party will most likely point to the potential oil deals and draw comparisons with Iraq.

What does the near future hold for U.S. and Venezuelan relations? Hard to say. But one thing is certain: this won’t be the last time Venezuela will be making U.S. headlines in the coming weeks.