A Transition Under Whose Terms?
The recapture of Juan Pablo Guanipa exposes chavismo’s fixation on control and its refusal to tolerate disruptive behaviors
This Transition Might Work Out
Students, press workers, and families of detainees are reemerging after being silenced under Maduro. Such sustained pressure from below can make the system crack
The Tudares Case and the Regime’s New Constraints
The son-in-law of Edmundo González was released after his wife denounced coercion from intermediaries presumably acting on the regime’s behalf
Regime Learning: Who Can Afford to Fail in Venezuela?
In its state of permanent crisis, chavismo’s ability to reinvent itself and recalibrate goals in response to threats should not be underestimated moving forward
The Traps of Waiting for Political Change under Delcy Rodríguez
The longer Venezuelans wait for democratization under the Trump–Rodríguez equilibrium, the weaker the prospects for enforcing democratic demands
Venezuela: An Arrested Transition
So far, the most visible winners of the post-Maduro moment are not opposition leaders, but many of Maduro’s former allies
A Moment of Vindication in Oslo
The speeches at the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize ceremony serve as a capstone rebuttal to those who once fell under the spell of chavismo’s social justice utopia
María Corina Bets It All on a Final Swing in the Ninth Inning
Bipartisan consensus over Venezuela declines. The chance for decisive U.S. action is slipping away. Trump’s next move could determine Venezuela’s future or the end of Machado
The Puzzle of Venezuelan Representation in the U.S.
The Venezuelan-American community still lacks enough strength and coordination to influence policy, leaving Cuban and American officials as the dominant voices. Can they step up during Trump’s second coming?
Chavismo Is Testing Its Party Machine (Again and Again)
A communal consultation, as well as the Esequibo referendum, helps PSUV and its allies to be more precise on its very limited spending and identify the priorities towards July 28
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