Henry hearts Pablo


AD has announced its endorsement of Pablo Pérez for President.

Henry Ramos Allup made the announcement today. Antonio Ledezma, who has been busy courting AD’s base and all but dived into CAP’s grave, is sure to be disappointed. Both Ledezma and Maria Corina Machado are quickly slipping into irrelevance.

As for us, well … let’s just say that Pablo Pérez is clearly not interested in getting the CC stamp of approval.

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  1. Feel sad about Ledezma, who probably will drop out soon. No surprise whatsoever.

    In an earlier post, I have said my view about Pablo Perez. If he wins, I’ll vote for him, but my entusiasm won’t be high.

    Looks like a three-way race, with Leopoldo as the dark horse. Let the games begin.

  2. Yup, Ledezma is toast. Too bad, really: he’s way brighter than PP, more experienced and seems to have worked harder. I guess he’ll be out this week.

    The other question, for me, is whether MCM has any credible way into the race at this point. All the good endorsements are gone already, and she’s still way behind. I think her road to a cabinet seat passes through a shrewd endorsement soon.

    • I think Maria Corina should stay. She is the only candidate representing capitalism and primaries are about presenting different options. PP = center-left. HCR = Left. LL = center-left. Maria Corina = right.

      She could turn things around in a debate. I would not discount her as loser just yet.

      • I am not sure if I agree with what you say: I think that the left-right divide is irrelevant for the Venezuelan case: at this point, the proposals of the candidates seem too spineless to make such call. Maybe, for example, Capriles is being supported by traditionally leftist parties, but I wouldn’t call him a leftist, he is still incognito to me (also taking into account that he comes from PJ)

        The only divide I can see is more radical oppo-Maria Corina Machado, and light oppo- HCR, with PP and LL somewhere in between. Maybe a televised debate will clarify things soon, but even if the proposals are more clear, I think that the left-right divide is losing its meaning anyways.

        • What about: “el gobierno debe crear empleos para todos” “la vivienda es un derecho”?

          LL, HCR, PP support those kinds of thought. Maria Corina relates more to what I believe. You DO NOT have the right to own a house; you have to work hard and earn it.

          You don’t have the right to a job; you have to be capable of getting a job.

          I believe that LL, HCR, and PP and their policies are wrong; if any of them wins I would support them because even though they are wrong at least they want what’s best for the country and they are definitely not in the wagon of destroying the country as chavismo is. However, I would like to have the opportunity of voting for someone that I actually thing is in the right way.

          Capitalismo popular.

          • The platitudes you quoted from HCR are just that-empty words, there is not much ideology behind them. Unless I hear something like “the government should create employment for everyone by … employing everyone in the public sector”, I will not believe that HCR is a lefty. (BTW, Déjà vû?)

            Now, I agree with what you say, to some extent. I firmly believe that you should teach people how to fish, not give them the fish, but sometimes government is needed to encourage this process. We need a government that encourages housing development and job creation, not one that creates houses and employment by its sole effort, ignoring the complex market structure of the private sector. We need a government that creates an incentive structure that encourages free markets, but at the same time government should control for inefficiencies when needed.

            Now, in terms of “capitalismo popular”, to be honest, I think it might be a good catch phrase to sale free markets, but in my opinion it is rather redundant, because inmho free markets entails that individuals have the power to control their decisions and enjoy their economic rights freely, thus the people through tehir aggregate decisions have the power to run the economy-it is popular.

    • Ledezma should run for reelection as Alcalde Mayor. Transmetropoli is just an amazing success in the face of almost impossible odds. I’m not from caracas, but I’ll vote for him.

      Maria Corina probably knows that is not her time yet. Too early to make a giant leap, politically speaking. Still, he should go on if she offers an alternative option. One thing, her TV commercials are very well produced.

      • I agree with you, Geha: Ledezma (and Ocariz, too, BTW) have a Caracas legacy to build. This may be Ledezma’s last “top job”, though: if re-elected in 2012, when a new President could dismantle the Metropolitan Usurpers, he’ll be 61 at the end of his tenure. Not too old, but then he’ll have a couple of more years to become presidential candidate again (and, despite any promises on the contrary, I’m sure Capriles, Perez, Lopez, or Machado would run again in 2018). He then may become something akin to our Daley or our LaGuardia (and I believe he has the talent for that, just as I believe he could have been a good President).

        Incidentally, CaracaChroniclers: had you been in AD’s position, would you have supported Ledezma? I feel there’s no choice that AD could possibly make that could warm your anti-octubrista hearts to the party… 😉

      • Totally agree about Ledezma. He should run for reelection in Gran Caracas. Although I don’t have all the details about Caracas 2020, I really love the idea. I think Caracas need some love and Ledezma can make Caracas a better place to live. We need that desperately.

        As for MCM, I still don’t understand why she is running. Chavez once said that he would love to have her as oponnent, and I think she took that way too seriously. The same thing goes for el Tigre. Chavez mentions him and suddenly he realizes that he should follow Chavez advice and become a presidential candidate. wtf?

    • “he’s way brighter than PP, more experienced and seems to have worked harder”
      Not a bad eulogy for Ledezma’s presidential aspirations, especially coming from you and considering that the guy is a former adeco/abtencionista plus CAP’s pallbearer. Don’t take it wrong. I like the guy and also think he’s a better option for socialdemocrats than PP, but what do I know? I hardly understand the world-view of our rural countrymen.
      I hope Ledezma stay on the run, but I think you’re probably right and he’ll quit sooner than later.

      • The debate is already being organised, Kepler, despite the initial cold feet of some front runners (who are now warmer to the idea, given the circumstances). And that might become Ledezma´s single most influential idea into the campaign (he was the proposal’s champion).

        Let us in any case remember the 1983 debate between Caldera and Lusinchi: Caldera was primed to eat up Lusinchi, and the anzoatiguense held his own, so he was considered the winner. You know what happened next…

        (And, yes, I was only 4 when that happened).

        • Aveledo,

          A debate won’t make Venezuela but we urgently, URGENTLY, need to introduce the culture of debate and public grilling. Other Americans are learning more and more to do so and although it is not always good, in general, in the middle and long term, it is…it helps to avoid parallel monologues, it helps to promote a little bit, just a little bit of analytical thinging among the public, not taking their candidate for granted.

  3. Ledezma should stay to make it interesting. Maybe not having the support of adecos is a good thing will make him gain points with the ni-ni’s..?
    The ones that should leave right away are el tigre and that woman Cecilia…who? They are just absolutely unecessary for this process.

  4. What I find frustrating and sad about this primary is that ideology is trumped by regionalism and caudilloism. If you posit a three-way race, you then have Pablo Perez running from his regional base in Zulia, Leopoldo Lopez, running from his regional base in Caracas, and Capriles gathering in all the pieces from the rest of the country. Forget the ideology. It is all about charisma and personality.

    • Agreed with every word. We have become pragmatic so forget about our principles… To be honest, I don’t think this will help PP. I used to believe that if AD goes with UNT it would have been a great foe for Capriles. El chavismo light that may have leaned towards PP is now up in the air, nonetheless. What I mean is that in politics 2+2 is not 4.

      I feel sad because I have good feelings towards AD… but they will appear as the pavosos of Pablo Perez. I don’t think people will like such pragmatism (i.e. being with PP for his position in the polls).

      Look how sad this argument is: “Hemos tenido propuestas completas que Pablo Pérez comparte con nosotros, como por ejemplo la Tarjeta Única”.

      And look how SOB Henry sounds with this: “Tras el anunció de Acción Democrática en apoyar la candidatura de Pablo Pérez para las elecciones primarias de la oposición venezolana, Henry Ramos Allup, fue consultado si la tolda blanca notificó a Antonio Ledezma sobre esta decisión. “Nosotros lo que tenemos que notificar es a quien respaldamos, y no a quien no respaldamos, esto no va contra nadie”. This is awesome; you first take AD support out of your natural candidate (Ledezma) and then you victimize him in national press. Shame on you, Henry!

      If I had to vote in the primary election today, I would vote for Maria Corina based on my principles (even though she is probably the easiest candidate to be defeated by Chavez).

      • I would like to ask for some of your reasoning behind your last blank statement Vsalomon if that is ok with you.

        IMO Maria holds the key to half of the voters franchise, and I am refereing to the all voters right of whoever is next left to her on the typical political continium (granted the Venezuelian one is heavilly squewed to the left), but that of the female vote, in waht I see as a strong matriarcal society….

        Let’s discuss! thanks

        • I would be very wary of what you are saying, I mean, reality does not follow your standard textbook electoral competition model. More specifically, I do not think that Maria holds the key to half of the voters franchise: if it is because she is a woman, the fact that we have a matriarchal society (assuming we do) does not entail women will like to be governed by women: in fact, most women who have become heads of state have acted more like “honourary men” when governing (Thatcher, Meir, etc).

          If it is because she is considered to be more traditional oppo, I would also be skeptical to believe every opposition member sees her like that. Personally, I think Leopoldo Lopez also represents traditional opposition voters because he comes from a traditional family, etc.

          Anyways, the only thing I want to get across is that we should not homogenize voters too much: sure, modeling the political scenario entails making some assumptions on people’s preferences, but making too many assumptions renders the analysis unrealistic.

        • Maria Corina is the easiest candidate to be defeated because Chavez has been successfull in making us lose our identity as people. It’s all about socialism now. People say with pride “I am a socialist” and every time I hear that I hear “I am an ignorant”.

          Maria Corina appeals to the traditional opposition, but as you know, traditional opposition will vote for anything but chavez as long as it is in the unidad. Regretfully, I am the type of voter that will have to settle for HCR, PP or LL; in addition, many of voters would try to vote for any of HCR, PP or LL in case that they are the top tier, and moreover, HCR, PP and LL appeal more to the socialists than Maria Corina.

          Nevertheless, Maria Corina cannot withdraw. She has to stand for what people like me believe in. Free market and liberty is what will develop our full potential as a country. It may not be her time to be president, but it’s definitely the time to put free market and liberty in the debate.

          • Mey I remind you of the presidential candidate field in the aborted opposition primaries of 2006? Teodoro was not running, and neither was Borges… We had Rosales -whom everyone seems to hate now-, Pablo Medina, “Cura” Calderón, William Ojeda…

            All very worthy Venezuelans, but, come on, we now have a much better platfor and much better candidates to pick.

      • I tend to agree with Luis F. Maria Corina probably has a better chance than the men of grabbing the ni-ni’s and even pealing off some of the Chavista women’s vote.

  5. Venezuelans have never elected a regional candidate and never elected a zuliano. We’ll see if the white machine can work out the magic…but then, they have never elected anyone from the upper class, neither a woman.

    I hope MCM stays. Maybe the non-endorsement is a good thing (remember that Irene Saez went down in the polls *after* the copei endorsement).

    • The “never” argument is weak and should be use be avoided. The never argument is based in a few sample points that have relative low significance and no correlation with what might happen in the future. That in the past maracuchos have not appealed to the rest of the nation has to do with their individual personas and not the region from which they came from. It’s like saying we have never elected engineers thus we never will.

      By never elected a regional candidate I don’t know what you mean? Didn’t we like andinos for some reason?

        • You can’t win national power speaking maracucho. You simply can’t, it’s even worse than trying to become German chancellor speaking Bavarian.

          • He didn’t have to speak in German for that. He just had to show he was as reactionary or more so than the previous one.
            In Germany you actually have to DEBATE with all the major opponents on several occassions and you are actually GRILLED over and over and over again by journalists.
            in front of everybody.

          • Y dale, Syd.
            He certainly has a Bavarian accent in anything, but then he was not chosen because of his charisma or anything. Presidents are usually chosen based on that and the economic cycle.
            The only Bavarian who for a little time people considered as “electable” was this idiot zu Gutenberg, as he spoke in standard Hochdeutsch (much unlike the vast majority of Bavarians) and he belonged to the old stupid nobility (he then lost any chance when people found out his PhD thesis was copy/paste, but that’s another story).

            Bavarians, specially if they are from Frankenland, make good ministers of finance, but no chance as chancellor. So perhaps this UNT bloke can be minister of energy or sports or something like that.

      • Sure, Gomez was “andino” and Paez was from the “llanos” but since we have been electing Presidents democratically, there has never been a regional president, meaning someone that was popular in his region while unknown at the national level. Try to recall such a case and you’ll see there is none in recent history. We have never, in the history of Venezuela (someone correct me if I am wrong) a President from Zuli.

        Of course it is a weak argument, but it is a fact…

          • As much as I agree with the maracucho issue, Pablo Pérez’s serious impediments to winning the nomination, much less the Presidency, go far beyond his accent.

          • Been over this before haven’t we?

            PP’s issue has little to do with being a regional candidate or being from my home state or having graduated from the same high school in Maracaibo as I did. PP’s issue is that he is a lackluster and boring candidate.

            You guys need to get over this zuliano self-loathing thing. It is nonsense. Kind of like saying “oh the US has *never* had a black president so a black person is unelectable” except even worse … You don’t get the diversity of Zulia or the richness of its culture.

            And you say you are “beyond the cliches”?

            Prove it.

          • It’s not self-loathing. It is a high level of self-awareness.
            As Juan said, it is not only about the accent. But most Venezuelans consider maracuchos to be too vocal about that region and the difference comes up even more clearly than for others thanks to their, let’s say, melodic accent and melliflous voice flow.
            Even Chávez adapted his Barinés accent (which is way different from
            what he uses now).

            But this is an important issue not just for maracuchos but for Caraqueños (and theorically for Valencianos):
            speak to the different regions. You don’t need to imitate Chávez’s thuggish
            tones. You need to speak concretely about those regions.
            In this I think it is Capriles who is lagging behind.
            You don’t attract attention in Monagas by talking
            about “Venezuela” or about MIranda

      • I am not even sure if you can talk about significance and correlation with such a small number of “observations” and such a restricted sample of candidates. Anyways, the argument is not that “you are maracucho ergo you will not be president”, but it is rather that “you are too local and thus cannot appeal to the broader spectrum of voters ergo your chances of being elected are lower than those of a broader candidate”.

        Andinos (BTW,What does it really mean to be Andino vs Llanero, etc anyway, I mean, I am Trujillano and I do not think I am too different from my Larense/Valenciano/Guayanes counterparts) were elected campaigning as Venezolanos/ maybe even Caraqueños (since a lot of people still believe Venezuela is Caracas). Unless someone campaigned under the “it is time for a Tachirense to govern this country”, I do not think Venezuelans prefered Andinos over any other type of candiate. I have heard people campaigning as “it is time for a Zuliano to govern this country” though….

  6. I´m thinking more and more that party affiliations matter very little in the primaries, looking at some of the Datanalisis poll numbers it´s interesting to find that more Adecos would vote for HCR than for PP, this seems to strengthen the thesis that what people are looking for is their ideal candidate independently of their political “leanings”.

    Venezuelan politics are becoming weirder by the minute, but I do believe this is part of the “proceso de maduración”, people are not voting for a party, they are voting for a person, and although that is not ideal, I do think it´s a step in a better direction than we were headed 10-15 years ago. Parties will have to adjust accordingly.

    • So the voters are following their heart and whims while throwing away their cherished ideologies, principles, and party-political affiliations?

      Of course they are, man. And as you say, parties will have to adjust.

      • I truly believe MOST (not all) “partidarios” have no significant idiological ties to their parties; chavistas are not communists or socialists, they just want a piece of the pie, very much like most past adecos were just there for convenience, less and less you hear about social cristianos and social democratas in the present day, it seems people are telling themselves who to vote for, they don´t care what their party asks them to do; they just want a guy/gal to get us back to “democracy” and save (salvage?) the sinking ship. After the nightmare is over the political game will change once again.

        I really think it´s sort of a readjustment phase, weird as hell.

        PS: I know I´m going to get burned for this post. So the flame-suit is on, fire away!

    • not that OT, insofar as the one-man rule in Vzla is concerned and the possible staging of his death presumptive. Thank you, Roy. Ít’s good to see an historian write so well and tie so beautifully the past to current events.

    • Thank you for the link. This Op-Ed piece is remarkable. However, it falls a bit short in explaining why autocrats and dictators behave the way they do. This is key to understand their actions. Chavez, of course, is an autocrat, and most probably won’t leave power unless he dies. I really find it difficult to believe that he won’t use any and all available means to “win” the election.

    • I have given some thought as to why I am indifferent to Gaddafi’s death and the manner of his death, while others are scandalized and are demanding an investigation. To some extent, I think that it has to do with the moral and legal differences between a “public figure” and “private person”. Journalism ethics and law makes a distinction between these two groups and allows greater liberty to the press to pursue those people in public sphere than those in the private sphere. Gaddafi, as a public person who assumed total power and authority in his country and enjoyed privileges and powers not granted to normal private citizens. He placed himself above the law and used force to defend his position against any who opposed him. Does such a person warrant the legal protections that he denied to those he subjugated? I don’t have any moral qualms with saying, “No, he didn’t.” When a tyrant places himself in a position of having no peers and above all law, he naturally forfeits his moral right to legal due process and to be judged by a “jury of one’s peers”.

      • False. A tyrant’s right to due process stems from the fact that those who suffered his tyranny should be better than him, if they want to abide by the rule of law. It is not a matter of doing the tyrant a favor by treating him in a civilized way. People who want to live in a civilized society should lead by example. A formal trial for Gaddafi would have reassured those who suffered his tyranny that the new government would not resort to his ways.

        • But, what trial where, by whom? There is no Court system accepted by these people
          and I am not sure if I don’t agree with them. They were not treated like” civilized humans”
          by Quadaffi and so-they treated him as they were treated…Case closed.

        • So, you want the chavista court to try Chavez?
          Guess you are willing to see a big comedy and Chavez
          grandstanding away not just free, but taunting everyone
          as usurpers, pitiyanqui’s etc.in the process. This is what would happen, No?

  7. So, in the name of “Socialism” Chavez does anything and everything he wants-and
    breaks no laws, only serves the will fo the people of Venezuela- and will never face
    a court? Is this what most people believe? I don’t believe that and I hope the
    next administration opens cases immediately against Chavez and his followers.
    This is the truth-everyone is wanting to skip over -not look at this.

    • Good for him
      Proyecto Salas-Feo family just wants to stay forever as dukes of Carabobo. They know giving support to PJ would mean giving more power to Scarano and risking their losing Carabobo. They decided to go for Leopoldo.
      My state is screwed up.

  8. Yesterday, both Ramos Allup and Pablo Perez were more beligerant toward capriles (AVN didn’t wait to long to use it: http://www.avn.info.ve/contenido/pablo-p%C3%A9rez-capriles-ya-fue-pedirle-cacao-copei).

    Is this the new strategy of Pablo’s campaign? AD’s endorsement of PP really requires the use of ramos’ tactics?

    I think that’s not the right strategy to contrast with this: http://www.eluniversal.com/nacional-y-politica/111029/capriles-radonski-llego-la-hora-de-cumplirle-a-los-venezolanos


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