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Henrique Capriles Quits

Henrique Capriles, citing his ban from running for office, announced he is quitting the primaries. Also, a political agreement between oppo and government may be imminent.

Capriles Is Quitting The Primaries

Henrique Capriles, Primero Justicia’s candidate, said he is no longer running for the primaries because he is banned from running for office. He called for his party to build a “viable” option for 2024. It is still uncertain if Primero Justicia will now support another candidate in the primaries, disengage or follow Capriles if he decides to endorse Manuel Rosales.

“Even if everybody who was going to vote for Capriles in the primaries would now vote for Carlos Prosperi (and that won’t happen), that transfer won’t transform Acción Democráticas’ candidate into a competitive one. (Capriles’ vote could migrante and divide between María Corina Machado, Delsa Sólorzano and Prosperi).

Incoming Political Agreement

Through the weekend, we heard from different sources that a political agreement is imminent between government and opposition.

According to @efectoblabla the agreement includes an electoral calendar for 2024/2025 and political ban lifting in exchange for sanction relief.

In our view, if it finally comes to fruition, we see a disorganized comprehensive agreement—which means that not necessarily everything will be on paper.

In our view:

  • We will possibly see some sort of cooperation for the primaries and the electoral calendar.
  • Gradual sanction relief will continue.
  • There’s been a lot of talk regarding the release of political prisoners.
  • The humanitarian agreement and the UN managed trust are in their own channel, and their delay has little to do with the negotiations.

*If we get to see chavismo lifting political bans it’s likely that we’ll see some kind of formal agreement regarding sanctions as well. But both are long shots.

We’ll see, said the zen master.

(Keep your eye on our Political Risk Report)

Aduana del Ecuador, Rumichaca. Cientos de venezonalos en situacion de movilidad humana esperan en fila para sellar su pasaporte y continuar con su viaje. Al dia, lelgaban entre 3000 y 7000 personas buscando salir de Colombia para viajar, en su mayoria, a Peru. La espera en esta fila se extiende hasta 4 dias, durmiendo en la calle o en zonas techadas de la Aduana. Durante las noches, la temperatura puede llegar a bajar hasta 3 grados Celcius.
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