Mapping Paths for Regime Transformation in Venezuela
January 3rd marks a rupture, not a resolution. By looking at both our past and our present, we can apply a framework to adjust our expectations
It’s been a month since the US bombed Caracas, captured the presidential couple, and began a remote supervision of Venezuela’s government. Below are a few pieces to help make sense of where this could go.
The longer Venezuelans wait for democratization under the Trump–Rodríguez equilibrium, the weaker the prospects for enforcing democratic demands
A possessed copying machine, the smell of microwaved fish at lunch, excel sheets, and the fate of the hemisphere. Just another day at The Branch
Trump forces her to comply, but Rodríguez cannot afford to lose the support of the regime she propped up. Can Venezuela’s interim leader avoid the fate of Maduro?
Venezuelan journalists have identified all the locations struck on January 3, all of which housed air defense systems, radars, or military communications infrastructure
The opposition leader must make herself indispensable to the transition by leveraging her ability to mobilize support and the organizational legacy of July 28, 2024
Chavismo would dismantle its main weapons by releasing all political prisoners and shutting down the sites where they’re held. Let’s see how that goes
A string of Venezuela-related stuff delivered straight to your inbox.
Chavismo is pursuing a managed, US-backed economic opening without the political reforms that democratic transitions require. Will Venezuelans go along with it?
Big Oil's history in Venezuela has been quite the adventure. A big adventure
The Secretary of State today discussed Rodríguez compliance, oil, military action, and the opposition before the Senate's Foreign Relations Committee
The eagerness to court Big Oil while steadfastly ignoring the population’s needs feels like a return to Venezuela a hundred years ago. But history does not repeat itself
Rubio has promised that the US will maintain strict oversight of oil revenue that Venezuela’s government is now receiving. The US has no idea what it’s getting itself into