Breaking: Legislative Elections called for December 6

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Tibi - 1In an ill-humored, defensive speech, brimming with reproaches against her critics, CNE-head Tibisay Lucena called Legislative Elections for December 6th.

The speech was a remarkable piece of wounded-ego venting: a long lament about academics who’ve criticized her, GOP voter suppression, and an undending hyper-whiney, etc.

Que mujer tan profundamente acomplejada. 

But in the end, all anyone will remember from it is the date.

My insta-analysis: This morning, I thought there was a 25% chance elections would actually be held this year. Setting an actual date, though, clearly raises the costs to the government of postponing a vote. I still think there’s a good chance Maduro will find a pretext to stave off impending doom. Nonetheless, the chances of a vote being held obviously just went up substantially – to 55%, maybe?

One way or another, given the fundamentals (out-of-control shortages, inflation and crime, on top of a president nobody likes), if they do hold these elections, the chances are very high the government will lose them. Badly. Incumbents just don’t win mid-terms with inflation at 130%+. If they do in Venezuela, that’ll be the first time that’s happened, anywhere, ever.

Now Leopoldo López can eat again, thank God.

As a final note, it’s worth mentioning that December 6th will be the seventeenth anniversary of Hugo Chávez’s first election. PSUV will surely try to use this to their advantage.

1 COMMENT

  1. It’s surprising how there are people who can listen to this woman speak and not think that she’s a chavista spokesman. What a disgusting conference.

    By the way, doesn’t the government cry “injerencia imperial!” every time someone from the US dares to open his mouth regarding Venezuela? What’s Tibisay doing talking about Hillary, the GOP and voter laws over there? Oh that’s right, this government doesn’t have an inch of shame when being hypocrites.

      • The mediocrity and absurd thinking is a direct legacy of Comandante Galactico. Being the egomaniac he was he could only surround himself with yes-men and in the case of Ms Lucena, yes-ladies. So after his demise we are left with these half witted deaf idiots running the show.

        Recuerda Venezuela que pariste el Chavismo … mea culpa, mea culpa, mea maxima culpa.

  2. I wonder about the relationship between corruption and weight increases while holding public office.

    Academic papers, anyone?

    • There’s a complex inverse relationship going on there: Massive Corruption tends to limit fattening, cheap fast foods and carbohydrates, but then again, the constant fancy restaurant Mega Guisos add to the waste line.

  3. Why is she talking about the US or Hillary or academics who criticized her? Just announce the date and logistics, that’s it. What a joke.

  4. And the Circus continues.. Maybe Shannon did convince NarcoCabello, hopefully LL will eat, while of course most of the “Petitorio” will be completely ignored, as people still dream there’s a remote semblance of separation of powers or democracy anywhere near. Mejor que nada, claro. Traete las cotufas..

  5. One senses movement behind the scenes. Whatever pressure was applied, Chavismo caved in to it. One day, this is going to make a fascinating book. Living through it, without understanding what is happening, sucks!

    • What’s not to understand?

      You mean Cubazuela? Happens all the time, has happened over and over and over throughout History. You don’t need to wait for another book. Give or take a couple of ingredients, it’s the same old story as in Lybia, Nigeria, and Africa, Russia, China, North Korea, Cuba, Haiti, Latin America, Kleptozuela, Nicaragua, etc..

      Natural resources, Greed, dumb religions, Power, lack of education.. retarded politics, Corruption, oppression, theft, domination, exploitation, Ego, ignorance, theft, religion, greed, politics, lies, poverty, oil, lack of education, theft, corruption..

      Mix, shake well, throw in a few inventions, cell phones, internet, and try again! In some prehistoric, barbaric places the specific combination is more lethal than others, that’s all.

      200 years from now we will all be extremely ashamed of ourselves, including “developed” nations. No wonder extraterrestrials, if any, are too busy dealing with thousands of more advanced planets, rather than our laughable, boring and predictable little circus.

  6. Resultados por adelantado de las ‘elecciones’, Tibi-Tweet en Diciembre:

    “Triunfa por leve margen la MUD, 55% !!..” Seguiremos trabajando ocjetibamente por la Patria de Bolival!”

      • “Tendencia irreversible,” Tibisay, al contar 30% de los votos. “Cleanest elections in the world,” Carter Center, from Wells Fargo, Atlanta. “Eleciones tramparentes,” Pedro Carreno. “Los apatridas no pudieron con La Revolucion,” Patino, “Monitoreador”. “Yo no vi nada,” Santos. “Los Senadores Brasilenos no pudieron desestabilizar a Venezuela,” Dilma. “Lo vamos a inhabilitar,” DC, hablando de Capriles. “Chavez al Panteon,” NM, tocando los bongo’, desde El Balcon Del Pueblo, adelante de un mar de cientos de camisas rojas, traidas en autobus del Interior, “UH, AH, Chavez no se va,” filosofo Chavista. “Con Maduro, la papa esta seguro,” Maria Auxiliadora, de su puesto 150 en la cola, con su nuevo sueldo minimo de 10 millones (viejos) ($10 at the DT 1000 rate)….

  7. This strikes me as an indication that focussed international intervention can work, and that those, including myself, who thought Leopoldo Lopez’s strategy was valiant but completely futile were probably wrong. He has to get some credit for this, along with all of the relatively anonymous people who joined him. I hope he calls off his hunger strike and I hope he can get back to a relatively normal state (i.e. for someone being held for their political views in a Venezuelan prison).

  8. Eligieron la fecha que eventualmente iban a elegir, pero y los presos politicos? Las persecuciones? la libertad de prensa? donde quedo eso? No es tan importante?

  9. So help a brother out. Are some suggesting that Shannon put pressure on Cabello to protect Lopez and announce an election? ..using what leverage? “We will not indict you, Mr. Speaker.” ?? “We will stop buying your oil if you don’t do as we say?” Since when have these people cared what the empire thinks about anything?

  10. When I read that piece a few days ago I wondered what kind of power play was going on and what Shannon was really up to. Apparently the evidence against Cabello and factions of the military is strong. Conversely, the US knows Cabello and Maduro are crossed up, and that with Cuba siding with Uncle Sam, at least symbolically, and Venezuela being broke and powerless, something has to give. Caballo is crooked as the Oregon coastline but he’s far cannier and smarter than our bus driver – he MUST know that lest they steal the election outright, he and Maduro and all the rest are done for. Tibisay “Scatterbrain” ” Lucena was delivering a preemptive rant before being shown the door. Could you tell she was pissed off at being mocked and chided by the “scholastics” for the shit-for-brains she is? The larger question is: What did Shannon/Obama/Kerry really want? A soft landing? That’s not enough. And Uncle Sam is often tricky and talks with a forked-tongue. I wouldn’t be surprised if this was the first thrust or a divide-and-conquer strategy.

    But imagine this: Maduro calls off the elections as a “security measure” owing to grave civil unrest caused by his own stupidity and ignorance. Imagine how bad things are going to be five months down the road.

    JL

    • Who knows what really transpired in Port-aux-Thieves. Diehl cites his mysterious “sources”, some say Kerry and Obama didn’t even know or care about Shannon’s tropical adventures..

      “he MUST know that lest they steal the election outright, he and Maduro and all the rest are done for”.

      Not necessarily. What Cabello knows a lot about is the utterly fake “Parlamento”, where everyone is bought, silenced or fired at his whim. The usual, playful Gerrymandering, throw a few Chinese billions around as vote-bait, shorten colas and free refrigerators, more intimidation, job & ‘benefits’ loss threats, a little Chavezmatic late adjustments,, no Int’l strong supervision against multiple fraud methods, and you easily turn 80% disapproval into (even with unprecedented 80% participation) into a laughable 60% ‘victory’ for the Muddy MUD. Listo el pollo: It’s Petro-narco Business as usual in 2016.

    • “The larger question is: What did Shannon/Obama/Kerry really want?”

      Call me a naïve, sentimental fool, but I like to believe that they only want a peaceful transition of power in Vzla. (as any sane person would.) And they are forcing Cabello’s/Maduro’s hand with respect to the elections because; 1) they can, and, 2) it is the right thing to do.

  11. So much for awakening from the anomia! the circus is set.
    here it comes 5.5 months of electoral novela on overdrive.

  12. I still don’t think you will have an election. The Chavistas had to announce an election date but they don’t have to hold an election.

  13. did not hear/see Tibi’s speech, and with no link posted here I wondered if anyone has a such a link to her performance. For now, all I have is a snap, showing that she chose to substitute the pastel power suits of yesteryear for a (swan-song?) dress with tropical blooms that promise a breath of fresh air, symbolically speaking.

  14. Narcokid wrote: “The usual, playful Gerrymandering, throw a few Chinese billions around as vote-bait, shorten colas and free refrigerators, more intimidation, job & ‘benefits’ loss threats, a little Chavezmatic late adjustments,, no Int’l strong supervision against multiple fraud methods, and you easily turn 80% disapproval into (even with unprecedented 80% participation) into a laughable 60% ‘victory’ for the Muddy MUD. Listo el pollo: It’s Petro-narco Business as usual in 2016.”

    Not so fast, Pana. While Maduro talks a big game about Chinese billions, they are already on the hook for a fortune (upwards of 32 billion if I’m not mistaken) so it seems unlikely they will simply hand Maduro cash money, and instead will work out some refinance mumbo-jumbo and extend credits for services rendered but I am not seeing another payout into an economy where the currency is virtually worthless and cannot be traded anywhere save Colombia border towns. Same goes for Russia. The Ruble’s on the rocks. Another problem is that Maduro has trashed Ven’s credit so entirely that even if he had the greenbacks to buy a few freighters of refridgerators etc., he has to pay off the outstanding debt before more goods are forthcoming. Like it now stands with medicine and medical machinery etc. No one is extending Ven a dime of credit. When the currency tanks as it did, everything changes, including buying favor from an exhausted populus.

    But who really knows? I don’t. Most everything people have written on the thread I agree with at least partly. It’s gonna be one loco novela, that’s for sure. I hope LL starts eating soon and not too many have to die. There must be a way out of it but buying it with goods and popularism is goona be tough when the currency ain’t worth the paper it’s printed on and the debt would crush a good sized planet.

    JL

  15. To the extent the regime relies on using public money to buy popularity by distributing it or what it buys they dont stand a chance , quite simply because the govt is flat broke and the signs of this are everywhere , they have enough barely to cover certain essential imports to keep people from mutinying but thats it .

    What they have of course is Chavez inoculation of class hatred against the oppo leadership which waning but still alive and the capacity to use fraud and coercion without any institutional limits to try and trottle the oppos activities against the regime .

    If the elections were totally free they would suffer a beating as many of their former followers would either abstain or join the oppo inspired by their chagrin at the hardships that they are suffering thanks to the govts corruption and incompetence. . Because its bound to be a manipulated election they may be able to soften the blow somewhat ,

    Maduros opportunity for a durable rule are largely gone , The regimes leadership probably realize that right now and are looking for a succesor to allow them to regain some of the lost popularity and remedy some of their mistakes . I heard Andres Velasquez say in a TV interview that he suspected that they might be thinking of Rodriguez Torres as a substitute . The guy has been talking with some edge of discontent about the Maduro way of doing things and is very martial looking and probably loyal to DDC . They would have to find a way to replace Maduro without too much fuss , maybe Maduro falls ill and must abandon his job for reasons of health but they would habe to breach the constitution in a very open way which would create problems they might not want to face.

    • If it’s money they’re worried about–no problem, just hire another outside printer (who they also wont pay), crank up the presses, declare an extraordinary increase in minimum wage/pensiones/misiones close to the election, but not too much in advance to allow time for inflation to kick in, and full speed ahead.

      • We are all missing the essential fact that has the capacity to change everything and which we can take to the bank with absolute certainty , Venezuela will default its foreign debt sometime in 2016 if not earlier, this will bring conmotions and confusion as now we cant even think of. Sooner of later the consequences of such default will have to be faced and that will imply the birth of relationships between different segment of Venezuelan opinion as will surprise everyone . !! Before that its all provisional and shaky !! When that event comes we wont even remember that there is such a thing as a North Korea. !! Wish someone would give this coming event a bit of thought and discussion.!!

        • Yup. It is the the elephant in the living room. Even if Chavismo were to collapse tomorrow, Venezuela will eventually have to default or accept a stringent IMF austerity regimen.

  16. In the link Roy provided, the bus Driver said (translated): “If the AN falls to MUD , what do you think will happen? Chaos.”

    That’s opposed to what we have now…

    When a government stoops to scare tactics, and suggests they will participate in the scary outcome (Maduro claims he will take to the streets to defend the revolution), there is not future in any of it. It’s pure novela.

    J

    JL

    • What he just admitted is that he does not accept that the Opposition is also “el pueblo”. The logical next step is to declare all opposition parties to be “terrorist organizations” and remove all their candidates from the ballot.

      • What he just admitted is that he does not accept that the Opposition is also “el pueblo”.
        So what else is new? Chavismo has been saying this for years and years.

      • “… declare all opposition parties to be “terrorist organizations” and remove all their candidates from the ballot.”

        That’s what happened on 2005, after the boycott on the assembly elections, chaburrismo whined that they had to be allowed to take over the congress with less than 10% of the votes or else this would happen.

  17. When it becomes clear that Maduro et al are losing power, many top Chavistas will jump ship to save their own butts. It only takes one general to step in and take out Maduro.

    The real danger is the Cubans. They do not care about Venezuela and will support Maduro until he is dead. Of course, if the two Castro brothers are not around, the equation changes.

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