Poll-yanna Chronicles

Every poll published this cycle and every seat projection, in one place. Thanks, Jimmy Wales!


This Wikipedia page bringing together all the publicly available polls ahead of 6D is pretty cool.

You can tell the government’s out of money by the fact they can’t even afford more than one fake pollster who’ll still go on record to say they’re winning.

I mean, ICS? That’s the best they can do? Really!?

I guess North America Opinion Research was just too expensive for them this time. And Keystone Mercadeo Táctico, too. And Top Data. And Predicmatica. And GIS XXI. And Servimercadeo. Hell, they can’t even afford to get Schemel to say they’ll win anymore; though he’ll still hedge maniacally for them, apparently.

Se nota que el petróleo está a 34, ¿no?

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  1. Fun, back-of-the-envelope calculation: in average, sept-nov. polls put PSUV on 26%, MUD on 52%. Exactly double.

    Under the D’Hondt system, if MUD gets more than double the votes of PSUV in a given state, it runs off with BOTH the “List” spots for that state. If MUD is beating PSUV 2-to-1 nationally, that must mean there are some states where this will be the case!

    And in the 3 big urban states (Miranda, Carabobo and Zulia) that elect 3 list deputies, if MUD wins 3-to-1 or better it takes ALL THREE List deputies there. Surely a pipedream, right?…RIGHT?

    Que locura…

    • But we do have to take into account that there are tons of undecided voters. Sure, due to the terrible situation of the country, one might thing that they’ll eventually break for the MUD, but I’m not so sure about that. In fact I don’t even think they’ll break evenly.

      I do think there are solid chances for the MUD to capture both List deputies in Táchira and maybe Mérida, while the other 3 states that elect 3 deputies will probably be won by the MUD, though I highly doubt they get all the deputies there.

  2. 60-107 MUD? In Vzla, with the CNE, 12 different electoral tricks plus Smartmatic? Ain’t gonna happen.

    CapoCabello and Jorge Rodriguez, and dear, flatulent Delcy and Tiby and dear Luisa Ortega and the lovely Cilia Flores, will concede a laughable and meaningless “Mud Win” by a few diputados.

    Then, they will simply proceed to purchase some of them them, intimidate them, silence them. Business as usual.

    What I can’t wait to see is the Macri effect; and if they let Leopoldo Lopez, Ledezma and others completely free next year, not under house arrest. Then the corrupt military, plus the TSJ might pack their bags for Andorra or Belize, and it’s a new ball game.

  3. They should add Miguel Salazar, two weeks ago he was predicting 91 seats for the opposition.
    Last week he was predicting 88 for the government

  4. […] 政府の息のかかった偽調査会社による偽の世論調査では政府優勢となっていますが、今となっては、マドゥロ政権は自分たちのどうしようもない不利をはっきりと意識しているはずです。そのためか、最近になって、これまでは見られなかったような野党候補者に対する直接的な暴力行為が頻発しています。 […]


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