Caradura Chronicles
For governing party spokesman Héctor Navarro, the fact that the murder rate has tripled in Venezuela since 1998 is the fault of…the last government!
Life
Coming Soon: Swing-o-Meter 2.0
Lets be clear: to really forecast September’s parliamentary election results with any degree of accuracy, you would need detailed, circuit-by-circuit polling in key marginal seats, the so-called "swing...
When he's good, he's really good...
Teodoro Petkoff is on fire in his TalCual Editorial today, dealing with the El Nacional morgue photo controversy. Long story short, after Telesur chief Andrés Izarra got a...
What we're up against
As the death of Luis Tascón brings back to mind the government’s long-standing willingness to abuse state power, it’s worth stopping to realize quite what we’re up against...
Tascón dies
ODH is tweeting an announcement that Cilia Flores has just made: chavista deputy Luis Tascón, of the infamous Tascón List, has died. He had been battling cancer for...
The message
I found one of the MUD’s ads online – no idea if it’s playing in Venezuelan TV, or how widely. Here it is: http://www.youtube.com/v/KUVueo2j-ys?fs=1&hl=en_US If you don’t understand...
The Skew Could Cut Both Ways
Juan and I are well aware that this talk of 100+ seats – out of 165 – for the opposition puts us very far from the conventional wisdom....
More Data, More Openness, More Swing-o-Meters
El Universal’s Eugenio Martínez seems to be the Go To guy for Election Projections in the Veneco Tweetosphere these days (@puzkas) – and the guy doesn’t think much...
The sinking aircraft carrier
Quico’s Swing-o-Meter is a useful tool. But to take full advantage of it, you need an estimate of the overall swing we’re likely to see in September’s election. One approach...
26S Swing-o-Meter
The Swing-o-meter – a tool to estimate the impact that a given shift in the popular vote would have on the overall composition of parliament – is surely...
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