Ecoanalítica projects three possible scenarios following the sanctions relief license: one in which the license is renewed, one in which the license isn’t and Venezuela returns to the 2023 status quo, and one in which sanctions are deepened
The Chavista-controlled Supreme Tribunal of Justice has ordered the National Commission of Primaries to hand over all material related to the October 22th primary election and “suspend all [its] effects”… even though it already happened.
Suspending the Primaries (Post-Mortem)
Chavismo’s highest court is suspending the opposition primaries: a week after they happened and resulted in a surprising turnout of more than 2.3 million people in Venezuela. The court is asking the National Commission of Primaries to hand out all documents and material related to the primaries, including the resignations of former pre-candidates.
The Chavista coalition is saying that the opposition committed a “mega-fraud” to proclaim María Corina Machado -banned from running for office and who won with over 92% of the vote- as the Unitary Platform’s candidate in the 2024 presidential elections.
After days of accusations of frauds from the main Chavista officials and pundits, the case was brought to court by a member of the co-opted “opposition” who didn’t participate in the primaries. Three members of the National Commission of Primaries, and all the presidents of the regional boards, had to show up in the Public Ministry yesterday.
The prosecution of the primaries could blow up the Barbados electoral agreements, which includes a clause respecting internal political processes, and setback the six-months conditional sanctions relief.
Negotiating with the opposition created winners and losers within Chavismo. With the government about to blow it up by prosecuting the National Commission of Primaries, will the winners save it?
La pregunta de las 64 mil lochas: what will the United States do?
The U.S. issued a license authorizing operations with the state-owned mining company, but experts believe it could just deepen the Arco Minero policies